NBA Lottery 2012: 10 Bold Predictions on the Eve of the Lottery

2012's NBA lottery is just one day away. You know what that means: It's time to dream, and dream big!

If you're a fan of the Charlotte Bobcats, first of all, I'm sorry. Secondly, when a team is that bad, it almost seems unfair that they don't just give them the first overall pick. Not only that, their odds are only one in four. Not cool.

But this means that if you're a fan of the Washington Wizards (sorry to you, too), Cleveland Cavaliers (my condolences) or New Orleans Hornets, you have better than a 10 percent chance of swooping in to "steal" the top pick.

Who sees a unibrow in their team's future?

But there is more intrigue than just who gets the top pick.

So let's get to it. Who's going to have the kind of luck you'll want to have on the craps tables at Caesar's? Who's going to be screwed like that damn fastening in a piece-of-crap IKEA bed frame?

Charlotte Bobcats Can't Catch a Break

The Charlotte Bobcats and owner Michael Jordan turned in the worst season in NBA history with a .106 winning percentage. Their record: 7-59. By God, that is awful.

It takes luck to win some basketball games. The other side of that coin must mean that it also takes bad luck to lose some. That's a whole hell of a lot of bad luck. Unfortunately, that kind of luck has to take way longer than one month to subside.

I'm calling it, they're not getting that top pick.

The historical odds aren't on Charlotte's side either. Via ESPN.com, teams with the best odds for the No. 1 pick are 3-for-18 since the current lottery format's inception in '94.

The Bobcats, an NBA franchise since 2004, have never held the first pick in the draft, and that trend is going to continue.

It burns, don't it?

Cleveland Cavaliers Swoop in for the Top Pick Again

Cleveland Cavaliers fans, you can rejoice.

You may have been screwed in a really big fashion a couple of years back, but luck has been with you ever since.

Guess what? You're going to grab the No. 1 pick again!

In the NBA lottery last year, the Cavs swooped in to win the Kyrie Irving sweepstakes. Cleveland only had a 2.8 percent chance then (here's a look at last year's odds).

This year, their odds are way better: 13.8 percent.

Sorry to crush your dreams, Wizards and Bobcats fans. I promise—hope, for your sake—that the tides will turn at some point. They have to, don't they?

Bonus prediction: Per the caption, Kyrie Irving will represent the Cavs at the lottery Wednesday night.  

Brooklyn Nets Sneak into Top Three to Retain Pick

The Brooklyn Nets have an interesting situation on their hands.

The franchise, poised to pack their things and head up from Jersey to BK, will retain the rights to their pick only if it falls inside the top three. Otherwise, it stays with the Portland Trail Blazers, who collected the draft pick in the trade for Gerald Wallace.

Brooklyn has an 8.1 percent chance of landing the third pick, and I'm calling it.

The next big question is: Will Jay-Z represent the team for good luck?

Washington Wizards Fall to Fourth Overall

The Washington Wizards saw the ping-pong balls bounce the right way back in 2010. They drafted John Wall from the University of Kentucky, the "fastest player from end-to-end."

Don't see that happening this year.

Washington has a 19.9 percent chance of pulling a "Twenty-Ten," when they came from fifth to take the crown with roughly 10-to-1 odds.

The Bullets, I mean Wizards (sorry, the jerseys confused me), have a 31.9 percent likelihood of dropping to No. 4.

I'm going with that.

New Orleans Hornets Win Two Top-10 Picks

The New Orleans Hornets, thanks to an acquisition, have a good shot at having two picks in the top 10.

I'm predicting that it happens.

The most likely scenario is that they get picks No. 5 and 10.

There is a 9.1 percent chance that the pick they acquired from the Minnesota Timberwolves lands outside of the first 10 picks of the 2012 NBA draft according to myNBAdraft.com.

This city has karma on its side. It wouldn't be right if they suffered such a misfortune.

Sacramento Kings Slip to the Sixth Pick

The Sacramento Kings have to be thinking big, where they're sitting.

The Kings have the fifth-best odds at the top pick at 7.6 percent. I've already written about teams with far smaller chances that have won the No. 1 overall pick in NBA lottery history (see Cavaliers, Cleveland; circa 2011).

But it's more likely that Sacramento falls to No. 6.

There is a 36 percent probability of this happening, and that is my prediction.

Not great. Not terrible. But a high pick nonetheless. 

Golden State Warriors Secure Their Lottery Pick

The Golden State Warriors have a big decision on their hands.

They currently have a top-seven protected pick that they traded to the Utah Jazz. As my colleague Sam Quinn wrote yesterday, the Warriors have a 72 percent chance of landing at pick seven or lower and hanging on to the selection.

I agree with Quinn, and believe Golden State will make a trade to secure this pick.

This is a deep draft class, and the Warriors desperately need more pieces.

Golden State Warriors Could Have Saved the Assets

The Warriors made their trade. Then they find out that they didn't need to.

I'm sure the front office will say they do not care. They didn't want to leave it to chance. But it'll be a sweet opportunity for the fans in the Bay Area to jeer their executives once again.

The odds are pretty darn solid that this happens, as there is a 59.9 percent likelihood of them landing at seven on the button according to myNBAdraft.com.

That's what I'm predicting.

Toronto Raptors and Detroit Pistons Go Where They're Slotted

The Toronto Raptors and Detroit Pistons each have a slim shot at the No. 1 pick. 

Canada's only team has better odds than the '93 Orlando Magic (1.5 percent), '08 Chicago Bulls (1.7 percent) and the previously mentioned '11 Cleveland Cavaliers (2.8 percent) to win the Lottery (ESPN.com). 

If Raptors fans take a look at those numbers, their 3.5 percent chance must look great.

I'll play it safe instead.

Toronto and Detroit have, respectively, 72.4 and 81.3 percent odds to go as they are slotted, in the eighth and ninth positions. I'll spare you and do the math myself. The odds are roughly 3-in-5 of this back-to-back taking place.

Mark it down. It's going to happen.

Phoenix Suns Capture 13th Pick

The Phoenix Suns will have no luck, but they won't get screwed either.

Screwed is only dropping to the 14th pick in the draft, though. Via myNBAdraft.com, the Suns have a 2.2 percent chance of getting into the top three. Unfortunately I wasn't bold enough to call that one.

I will go out on a limb, though, and predict that Steve Nash will represent the Phoenix Suns for the final time. Will he roll in on a skate board or rock a fresh suit?

Nash's odds are at 12.4 percent to both roll in on wheels and to return to Phoenix next season (via Ezra; no need to take that number seriously).

What chance do you give the Suns to re-sign the Canadian?