Champions League Final Day: Outlining Every Scenario in the Race for Fourth

With the final day upon us, the last two Champions League places are still up for grabs.

Arsenal, Tottenham and Newcastle head into their final matches with a total of only two points separating them.

To make matters even more intricate, third place is actually the only side guaranteed of a Champions League berth for next season, as a Chelsea victory in this season's Champions League final yanks the spot out from under the fourth-place team.

With so much going on in and so many possible permutations of outcomes, it's hard to blame even an avid fan for being confused by the situation.

If you find yourself mired in this state of confusion, then this article is for you.

Here are the 30 ways the final day could play out for Arsenal, Tottenham and Newcastle, and what each would mean for the race for fourth.

Arsenal Win, Tottenham Win, Newcastle Win

In this scenario, every side gains three points by getting by their final opponents.

Arsenal's win at West Brom would not be too surprising.

On the other hand, Tottenham's victory at home to Fulham and Newcastle's victory at Everton would be very good results for both Spurs and the Magpies.

In the end, though, the table would look like this:

		Pts
3	Arsenal	70
4	Tottenham	69
5	Newcastle	68

Hence, Arsenal would have the automatic Champions League berth, Tottenham would have to wait for Chelsea's match with Bayern Munich, and Newcastle would be on the outside looking in.

Arsenal Draw, Tottenham Win, Newcastle Win

In this scenario, Arsenal would be the only team to slip up, and the table would look like this:

		Pts
3	Tottenham	69
4	Arsenal	68
5	Newcastle	68

That is, it would look like this unless Newcastle defeated Everton by more than 17 goals, a notion that cannot be viewed as a possibility.

Hence, Tottenham would grab the Champions League berth, Arsenal would become Bayern Munich fans on May 19th, and Newcastle would again be on the outside looking in.

Arsenal Lose, Tottenham Win, Newcastle Win

In this scenario again, Newcastle and Tottenham pull off huge victories while Arsenal slip up.

Only this time, Arsenal actually fall in their match, completely changing the complexion of the table.

		Pts
3	Tottenham	69
4	Newcastle	68
5	Arsenal	67

Now, Arsenal are the ones missing out on the top four, while Newcastle slip into the fourth spot and wait to see if they're in the Champions League next season.

Arsenal Win, Tottenham Draw, Newcastle Win

In this scenario, Tottenham's terrible form gets the better of them as they fail to pick up the vital three points at home to Fulham.

Meanwhile, both Arsenal and Newcastle take care of business.

		Pts
3	Arsenal	70
4	Newcastle	68
5	Tottenham	67

Arsenal get the auto-bid, Newcastle fourth, and Tottenham left to rue their late-season collapse.

Arsenal Win, Tottenham Lose, Newcastle Win

This would produce the same outcome as the last result, just with more of a kick to Spurs supporters.

		Pts
3	Arsenal	70
4	Newcastle	68
5	Tottenham	66

Could all away teams win on Sunday?  If they do, this would happen and Tottenham's squad could end up undergoing a huge makeover because of it.

Arsenal Win, Tottenham Win, Newcastle Draw

With Everton's form at home of late, perhaps this scenario has a chance of happening.

		Pts
3	Arsenal	70
4	Tottenham	69
5	Newcastle	66

Arsenal get auto-bid, Tottenham wait, and Newcastle get plaudits for putting up such a fight in this fine season.

Arsenal Win, Tottenham Win, Newcastle Lose

If this one were to happen, the table would look like this:

		Pts
3	Arsenal	70
4	Tottenham	69
5	Newcastle	65

With Newcastle's form such as it is, I doubt this will happen, but you never know. 

Arsenal Win, Tottenham Draw, Newcastle Draw

With an Arsenal win, Arsenal lock up third.

Meanwhile, the other two scrap draws to make the table look like this:

		Pts
3	Arsenal	70
4	Tottenham	67
5	Newcastle	66

So, Tottenham's draw is enough to get them fourth.

Arsenal Win, Tottenham Lose, Newcastle Draw

Never will a loss feel so good.

Unless Tottenham concede 16 goals, the table will look like this:

		Pts
3	Arsenal	70
4	Tottenham	66
5	Newcastle	66

Thus, despite their horrific second-half slide, Tottenham will still find themselves in range for the Champions League by goal difference.

Arsenal Win, Tottenham Draw, Newcastle Lose

How upsetting would it be for Newcastle if this scenario were to happen.

With the door wide open via a Tottenham draw, Newcastle cannot find a way to take advantage and even lose to Everton.

		Pts
3	Arsenal	70
4	Tottenham	67
5	Newcastle	65

What a sad end to such a glorious season this would be for Newcastle.

Arsenal Win, Tottenham Lose, Newcastle Lose

Tottenham again sneak through without even winning their match.

Is this one likely?

No, but it is a possibility.

		Pts
3	Arsenal	70
4	Tottenham	66
5	Newcastle	65

Arsenal Draw, Tottenham Win, Newcastle Draw

What a strange end-of-season collapse this would be for Arsenal.



		Pts
3	Tottenham	69
4	Arsenal	68
5	Newcastle	66

Here, they would find themselves waiting for the Champions League final. 

Arsenal Lose, Tottenham Win, Newcastle Draw

Again, the door would be wide open for Newcastle, but they would not take advantage.

		Pts
3	Tottenham	69
4	Arsenal	67
5	Newcastle	66

Arsenal's collapse still finds them in fourth, but Tottenham get the automatic bid.

Arsenal Draw, Tottenham Win, Newcastle Lose

Tottenham again find their way to the automatic bid as Arsenal slip up.

		Pts
3	Tottenham	69
4	Arsenal	68
5	Newcastle	65

Newcastle will find solace in the fact that, no matter what they had done, they would still have been fifth.

Arsenal Lose, Tottenham Win, Newcastle Lose

In this scenario, there will be no solace for Newcastle, as they will know that a win over Everton (instead of the loss they suffer) would have put them in fourth above Arsenal.

		Pts
3	Tottenham	69
4	Arsenal	67
5	Newcastle	65

Once more, Tottenham grab third.

Arsenal Draw, Tottenham Draw, Newcastle Win

Here's a heart-breaking scenario for Tottenham: with an Arsenal draw, the door will be open for Spurs to grab third.

However, with a draw against Fulham, they actually finish fifth.

		Pts
3	Arsenal	68
4	Newcastle	68
5	Tottenham	67

Arsenal get the third spot while Newcastle get fourth.  Unless, of course, Newcastle win by 17 goals.

Arsenal Lose by One, Tottenham Draw, Newcastle Win

Again, it's heartbreak for Tottenham.

This time, they finish outside of the top four not on points or even goal differential, but on goals scored.

That is, of course, unless Tottenham finish with a draw that sees them score seven more goals than Arsenal in their loss.

Let's not even entertain that notion, though.

		Pts
3	Newcastle	68
4	Arsenal	67
5	Tottenham	67

Arsenal Lose by More Than One, Tottenham Draw, Newcastle Win

This time, it's agony for Arsenal, as they finish fifth to Tottenham on goal differential.

		Pts
3	Newcastle	68
4	Tottenham	67
5	Arsenal	67

Meanwhile, Newcastle has snuck into third for the second scenario in a row.

Arsenal Draw, Tottenham Lose, Newcastle Win

It's again upsetting for Tottenham, as they let a golden opportunity go by the wayside.

		Pts
3	Arsenal	68
4	Newcastle	68
5	Tottenham	66

Arsenal gets the automatic bid, Newcastle gets fourth, and Tottenham rue that late-season collapse.

Arsenal Lose, Tottenham Lose, Newcastle Win

Arsenal and Tottenham both slip terribly, losing to West Brom and Fulham, respectively.

However, the story here is Newcastle's sudden ascendance to third.

		Pts
3	Newcastle	68
4	Arsenal	67
5	Tottenham	66

Arsenal Draw, Tottenham Draw, Newcastle Draw

Draws in all three matches would leave the same gaps between all three sides.

In essence, this would end the same way we are entering the weekend.

		Pts
3	Arsenal	68
4	Tottenham	67
5	Newcastle	66

Arsenal Lose by One, Tottenham Draw, Newcastle Draw

Tottenham would be the side sweating heavily after this scenario, as Arsenal would almost certainly get the better of them based on goals scored.

		Pts
3	Arsenal	67
4	Tottenham	67
5	Newcastle	66

Hence, they would have to rely on Chelsea losing the Champions League final to qualify for the European competition the next season.

Otherwise, this is the most heartbreaking ending of a season one can imagine.

Arsenal Lose by More Than One, Tottenham Draw, Newcastle Draw

Newcastle is left to rue their missed opportunity here.

However, the real story is Arsenal finishing behind Spurs on goal difference and being forced to wait for Chelsea's final.

		Pts
3	Tottenham	67
4	Arsenal	67
5	Newcastle	66

Arsenal Draw, Tottenham Lose, Newcastle Draw

We again get two clubs finished even on points.

However, based on goal differential, it is almost certain that Tottenham will hold onto fourth

		Pts
3	Arsenal	67
4	Tottenham	66
5	Newcastle	66

Meanwhile, Arsenal get the automatic bid.

Arsenal Draw, Tottenham Draw, Newcastle Lose

With fourth place there for the taking, Newcastle will be very disappointed to let it slip through in this scenario.

		Pts
3	Arsenal	68
4	Tottenham	67
5	Newcastle	65

Meanwhile, Tottenham will also be disappointed not to take advantage of Arsenal's draw in order to grab third.

Arsenal Lose, Tottenham Lose, Newcastle Draw

It's hard to say that there will be any real winners in this scenario.

Yes, Arsenal will be happy with third, but that loss on the final day will be irking.

Meanwhile, Tottenham's loss will be a missed opportunity at third, while Newcastle's draw won't be enough to push them into the top four.

		Pts
3	Arsenal	67
4	Tottenham	66
5	Newcastle	66

This would be a very anti-climactic ending.

Arsenal Lose by One, Tottenham Draw, Newcastle Lose

Again, there will be no one more upset than Newcastle, as they miss an opportunity to rise above fifth.

Based on goals scored, Arsenal remain third and leave Tottenham in a constant state of worry for a week.

		Pts
3	Arsenal	67
4	Tottenham	67
5	Newcastle	65

Arsenal Lose by More Than One, Tottenham Draw, Newcastle Lose

Once more, Newcastle are left ruing their missed opportunity after failing to get all three points.

This time, though, it is Tottenham getting third over Arsenal by goal differential.



		Pts
3	Tottenham	67
4	Arsenal	67
5	Newcastle	65

Arsenal Lose, Tottenham Lose, Newcastle Draw

It's agony for Newcastle once more.

With third there for the taking, a draw against Everton keeps them in third.

It's not great results for the other two clubs, either, but they'll take their final positions.

		Pts
3	Arsenal	67
4	Tottenham	66
5	Newcastle	66

Arsenal Lose, Tottenham Lose, Newcastle Lose

Talk about an anti-climactic ending.

Here, everyone loses, keeping them the same on points.

Hence, Arsenal go to the Champions League, Tottenham wait at home as Bayern Munich supporters, and Newcastle goes home with a nice season that could have been so much more.

		Pts
3	Arsenal	67
4	Tottenham	66
5	Newcastle	65

Statistics

Here are the chances of each club finishing in each position, as determined by the different scenarios:

Arsenal

3rd: 63.3 percent

4th: 30 percent

5th: 6.7 percent

Tottenham

3rd: 26.7 percent

4th: 53.3 percent

5th: 20 percent

Newcastle

3rd: 10 percent

4th: 16.7 percent

5th: 73.3 percent

Prediction

This is a really tough call, as it's hard to say how these teams or their opponents will play.

If I had to choose one of these three scenarios, it would probably be the eighth one:  Arsenal Win, Tottenham Draw, Newcastle Draw.

I really think Arsenal will defeat West Brom fairly easily.

On the other two, though, I am admittedly unsure.

If the same Everton that showed up last week against Wolves plays Newcastle, then this could be an easy win for the Magpies.

However, if the same Everton that defeated Fulham 4-0 at home a few weeks ago shows up, this could be very tricky.

Similarly, Fulham could play Tottenham as they did Sunderland last week (well) or how they did at Everton before that (atrociously).

And that's not even taking into account the pressure the players on Spurs and Newcastle will be feeling.

I'll go with the two draws, but I wouldn't be surprised by this going in any direction.

Here's to a hectic Sunday of football.