Arkansas (13-5) at LSU (16-4), Saturday, Jan. 31, 2009, 5 p.m. EST
The Line: LSU -11
First place in the SEC West meets last place in the SEC West as the Arkansas Razorbacks roll into Baton Rouge to take on the red hot LSU Tigers.
Arkansas finally got their first SEC win of the season last time out when they hosted Alabama. While LSU has won four out of five in conference play, and has the better overall record, Arkansas has played a tougher schedule. Upset wins over both Oklahoma and Texas have the Hogs 2-0 in games against the top 25, and 2-1 in games against the RPI top 50. LSU is 0-1 against ranked teams, and a dismal 1-3 against the RPI top 50.
While LSU had been rolling after their conference-opening loss to Alabama, they loss to Xavier by double digits last Saturday in a home game they were favored to win. Meanwhile, Arkansas appears to finally be getting their footing back, showing signs of the team that beat Oklahoma and Texas against Alabama, never trailing the entire game.
Arkansas enters this game at 6-5 against the spread, while LSU is 7-5 against the number. Before their last game, Arkansas appeared to be in a free fall, as they are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six SEC games. LSU has covered in their last four SEC games and is 4-1 against the spread in their last five overall.
Arkansas has played well against LSU, going 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five meetings.
I think that LSU's record may be a bit inflated, and the Hogs record is a bit deflated. This spread is just a little too large, as the difference in these two teams isn't that big.
Mitch's Pick: Arkansas +11
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