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Spain Euro 2012: Predicting La Roja's Starting 11

Michael CernaMay 8, 2012

Going into UEFA Euro 2012 this summer, the reigning champions are one of the favorites to win the tournament.

In terms of overall talent and depth, Spain boasts as strong a squad as any. Vicente del Bosque will use the plethora of talent at his disposal to try and become the first repeat winner in history.

Yet, despite a nearly endless amount of talent to tap into, Spain does have a few weaknesses—or at least a few question marks.

The defense has a lot of talent compared to most national teams, but was recently rocked by Carles Puyol's injury, one that will keep him out of Poland and Ukraine.

The wild-maned stalwart has long been a rock in defense and the emotional leader of the team. Now del Bosque must rush to replace him on the pitch.

Some of the choices at central defense creates some flexibility on the wings. There are a number of young full-backs to choose from, but not a lot of proven players.

Striker is another huge question mark for Spain.

David Villa's injury and Fernando Torres' generally poor form this season will likely ensure that a new generation of attackers will have their shot at glory. However, one, or both of them may still make the squad.

Which central defenders should del Bosque go with? Which striker gives Spain the best shot at retaining its title?

Read on to find out and to see Spain's Euro 2012 starting XI.

Keeper: Iker Casillas

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Club: Real Madrid

Caps: 128

The most obvious choice on this list is at keeper. St. Iker will hold this position until injury or retirement takes it away.

Casillas is the best keeper in Spain and—in the opinion of many analysts and fans—the best keeper in football.

The fact that players like Diego Lopez and Gorka Iraizoz may never even reach two caps shows how much depth there is at the position.

Age and timing are key factors—which makes David de Gea the favorite to replace Casillas, but that will likely be after the next World Cup at least.

Subs: Victor Valdes, Pepe Reina

Right-Back: Ramos/Iraola

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Club: Real Madrid/Athletic Bilbao

Caps: 83/7

Sergio Ramos is the clear No. 1 here. At Sevilla he was often used in the middle and played at CB during his first few seasons at Real Madrid.

However, new purchases at Real and better alternatives on the national squad forced him to right-back. This season has shown that he is still capable in the middle, though.

He may once again be used in central defense now that Puyol has left the national team. Who would be the next-best right-back in that case?

With 33 caps, many people are talking about Arbeloa as the obvious and clear choice.

The best thing going for him is experience and versatility. Arbeloa can play on the left or right, which gives del Bosque lots of flexibility on both wings.

Bringing both Arbeloa and Ramos would mean only needing one left-back. But Arbeloa is not the only option.

Athletic Bilbao's Iraola has arguably been the best Spanish right-back in football this season. Arbeloa may play for the better team, but Iraola has been the superior player.

Arbeloa has more tackles per game, but Iraola has more interceptions, crosses and key passes per game. He is also the more dangerous attacking full-back—which is key for Spain.

Choices in order of preference: Sergio Ramos, Iraola, Arbeloa

Center-Back: Gerard Pique

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Club: Barcelona

Caps: 38

With Carles Puyol retiring from international football, a great burden has landed squarely on the shoulders of Pique.

First of all, Puyol will not be replaced. Someone else will slide into the central defense, but no one is as good as Carles, even at the age of 34.

Even beyond talent, Spain is losing their defensive leader.

Having the talent to replace Puyol is difficult. Finding someone to step up and replace a legend in just two months is impossible.

Still relatively young at 25, asking Pique to fill Puyol's shoes would be asking too much. But there is no other option and Spain's defense will be a problem.

The responsibility may have come sooner than expected for Pique, but he must now become a leader for La Roja and Barcelona.

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Center-Back: Ramos/Martinez

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Club: Real Madrid/Athletic Bilbao

Caps: 83/7

We know Gerard Pique will play in the middle. The obvious problem is finding a replacement for Puyol.

Del Bosque has a few options here.

Sergio Ramos would be a strong choice. He has done a great job moving into the central defensive position over the last two seasons for Real Madrid.

However, while Iraola is a very suitable replacement on the wing, Ramos is clearly better. Also, there may be some questions about pairing Ramos with Pique, two defenders who often get too far forward.

The other strong choice is Javi Martinez. Martinez prefers to play as a defensive midfielder, but has developed into a top center-back this season under Marcelo Bielsa.

Javi is not the most agile or quick defender, but his tackling and positioning are on par with any other Spanish defending. He is also one of the best passing CBs in football, along with Pique.

Pairing Pique with Martinez would allow the full-backs to move forward while also creating a very high line. Both players can read the game very well and play in very similar systems in La Liga.

The awareness and strength of both players would be much better than having Ramos in the middle.

Alternatives: Alvaro Dominguez, Albiol, Botia

Left-Back: Jordi Alba

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Club: Valencia

Caps: 3

Left-back is the one position that is rather limited for Vicente del Bosque. There is no real established, world-class option here.

Joan Capdevila was the man during the World Cup, but at 34, he will almost certainly not be called back.

The other three options that del Bosque used during qualification were Jordi Alba, Nacho Monreal and Arbeloa.

Alba was by far the more impressive and versatile. When Arbeloa played on the left, Alba was often used as an extra midfielder.

Chances are that Alba will keep the hot hand and win del Bosque's trust heading into June.

If Alba joins Martinez and Pique at the back, could we see a preview of Barcelona's new defense for next season?

Alternatives: Nacho Monreal, Arbeloa

Defensive Midfielder: Xabi Alonso

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Club: Real Madrid

Caps: 93

With the average age of Spain's defense being under 25, a lot will be asked from Xabi to provide defensive help with Puyol now gone.

Alonso is the third-most capped player on the squad, barring David Villa. He will need to lead the entire central defense while also leading the midfield.

Perhaps the most underrated player at Real Madrid, Alonso is one of the best and most accurate passers in the world. He averages more passes per game than any other player besides Xavi and completes 88 percent of them.

If Spain are going to dictate the pace and control the midfield, Xabi's positioning and vision are key. He will be the originator of Spain's attack and the man needed to thwart the opposing attack before it reaches the high line.

Along with Sergio Busquets, Alonso is the key to Spain's entire system.

Defensive Midfielder: Sergio Busquets

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Club: Real Madrid

Caps: 38

The defensive midfield position is arguably the most underrated in all of football. In a possession-based system like Spain's, the defensive midfielders are even more important.

They are vital for controlling possession, reading and opening the midfield, directing and limiting the opposing attack, and allowing the full-backs to press forward by screening and providing cover to the central defense.

The fact that these players do not score many goals or get many assists often makes fans under-appreciate them. Make no mistake, Real Madrid and Barcelona would be far weaker teams without Alonso and Busquets.

Busquets is a favorite of del Bosque, so his place in the national side seems as set as anyone's—assuming health and the absence of a significant dropoff.

Alternatives: Javi Martinez, Bruno, Javi Garcia

Midfield: Xavi

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Club: Barcelona

Caps: 108

Xavi is an indispensable as any other player on this team. Spain's vice-captain continues to be the model for Spanish midfielders even at the age of 32.

He is the heart of the club and dictates the tempo. He is the best passer in the world and, even in his relative decline, is still considered the best midfielder in the world by many.

Xavi is the man who will spray the ball around and create space enough for his teammates to attack the defense.

He has the highest passing percentage and completes more passes per game than anyone in football.

Injuries have slowed him down this season and if he gets hampered during the tournament, Spain will struggle to find a suitable replacement. Unlike the two attacking midfielders, there is no one with quite the same skill set as Xavi.

Still, I don't expect him start every game, which will likely result in Fabregas, Cazorla, Mata and Navas playing often.

Alternatives: Thiago is the most similar to Xavi, but relying on a 21-year-old to be Spain's general would be too tall a task at this point.

Attacking Midfielder: Andres Iniesta

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Club: Barcelona

Caps: 64

The attacking midfield position for Spain is the most competitive in all of football. There is enough top talent to fill at least two more national teams.

If you read my Spain Olympics roster breakdown, you will see that the next generation is also loaded with talent.

One man who does not have to worry about losing his place is Andres Iniesta. El Ilusionista has certainly earned his place in the starting XI, probably until he retires.

He was the man that gave Spain its first World Cup title in 2010 with the game-winning goal in the final against Holland.

However, if injury should keep him out of the tournament or limit his time, there is no shortage of players chomping at the bit to replace him.

Alternatives: Cesc Fabregas, Juan Mata

Attacking Midfielder: David Silva

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Caps: 55

David Silva will likely continue to be del Bosque's first choice to play opposite Iniesta, but his position is the most congested of any midfielder's.

Given the quality of depth at this position, David Silva is surprisingly expendable—depending on the opponent.

Silva will likely split time with Santi Cazorla, Jesus Navas, Juan Mata and Cesc Fabregas. Each player provides a different level of attack and passing ability, and uses a different style of killer passing.

For example, Jesus Navas would be the ideal man to use with Llorente if Villa is playing as part of a 4-3-3, since he is the best crosser of the group. Mata would be another strong option.

Santi Cazorla is the most versatile and well-around midfield option of all. He is also the most dangerous scoring threat from distance.

David Silva will likely be the first choice, but would also probably be one of the first casualties if Spain starts to struggle.

Alternatives: Cazorla, Navas

Striker: Fernando Llorente

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Club: Athletic Bilbao

Caps: 20

Del Bosque seems to be holding out hope for David Villa until the last minute, but that may not happen. If Villa is healthy, he would take this spot in the starting XI.

Villa hopes to play in the Copa del Rey final, and that match will be very telling. Even if he comes back, there will be some questions about his health and longevity.

Aside from Villa, there are a fair number of suitable alternatives. Depending on the three midfielders del Bosque uses, he could use Roberto Soldado, Fernando Llorente, or Negredo.

Lorrente is the most capable lone striker due to his technical prowess, height and strength. However, Soldado was lights-out in qualifying and is just as worthy of the nod.

Negredo presents a nice alternative and has often been used when wingers such as Juan Mata or Jesus Navas were used.

Considering the formation I have listed here, Llorente or Soldado are the best choices.

Subs/Alternatives: Soldado, Negredo, Pedro, Villa, Torres, Raul, Muniain

Formation 4-2-3-1

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With this starting 11, the strategy will be very familiar for Spain. They will aim to maintain possession while spreading the attack with a single striker up front.

The fullbacks will shoot forward with Pique and Martinez holding a high line. Sergio and Xabi will drop to provide cover for the defense and plug the passing lanes at the back.

Xavi will control the central defense while Iniesta and Silva will open play up front, creating chances for Llorente to either finish a pass or creating space for a shot.

They may also use a 4-3-3 at times with Mata, Pedro, or even Muniain up front with Soldado. David Villa could also be used as part of that set if del Bosque wants to use two strikers with a winger.

Shortlist

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There are clearly a number of options for the final squad. Del Bosque is one of the most blessed managers in football. He could make two full teams capable of competing for the Euro 2012 title.

Here is my 23-man shortlist:

Keepers:
Casillas
Reina
Valdes
 

Defenders:
Ramos
Pique
Martinez*
Alba
Iraola
Arbeloa**
Albiol
 

Midfielders:
Alonso
Busquets
Xavi
Iniesta
Silva
Mata
Cazorla
Navas
Fabregas
 

Forwards:
Llorente
Soldado
Negredo
Pedro/Muniain***

*Could also be used as a defensive midfielder.
**Monreal could be selected instead, but Arbeloa's ability to play on both wings makes him more valuable.
***A legitimate wide scoring threat is needed for the 4-3-3 and Pedro is the best option despite his poor form this season..

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