Virginia's Offense Isn't the Team's Only Problem

Much has been made of the slide in the Virginia offense since the departure of J.R. Reynolds and Sean Singletary.  As the years have ticked by since that rather magical 2007 campaign, it's not just the offense that's tailed off; the defense has fallen significantly as well.  It only appears that the offense has gotten worse, simply because Reynolds and Singletary were such outstanding scorers.

The graph below plots Virginia's offensive and defensive efficiency statistics for the Leitao era.  The offense is in blue and the defense is in red; in between those lines is the efficiency margin (the difference between the two).  Remember, for the defense, lower is better.

A couple of points to note:

• That 2007 team was good at both offense and defense.  We forget that.  I think the tendency is just to think about how great Singletary and Reynolds were on O.  Jason Cain was an anchor, maybe even a stalwart, in the middle.  It was also a solid, injury-free year for Mamadi Diane, who wasn't counted on to score.
• The ACC is ridonkulously competitive.  In 2007, one of the best years ever, we're ranked 30th on offense and 59th on defense, but fifth and eighth, respectively, within the ACC.  That, my friends, is why coaches in places other than Chapel Hill and Durham get chewed up and spit out.  I know Gary Williams is on the hot seat, but this reeks of NC State firing Herb Sendek, which I bet the NC State fans wish they could have a do-over with.  Williams is a complete ass sometimes, which doesn't help his cause, but he's a good fit for Maryland.  And, of course, he won a national championship.  Wake up people.
• For all the talk about Leitao's defensive prowess, Virginia's never been in the top half of the ACC in terms of defensive efficiency, finishing dead last in the ACC in 2008.  Last year, that was the Achilles' heel and why the Cavs couldn't hold a lead.  In fact, you might say that the drop defensively was much worse (59th nationally to 123rd versus 30th to 51st) than the drop offensively.
• The 2009 squad has improved slightly on defense but has regressed tremendously on offense.  To anyone watching the games, this is not a surprise.  The offense isn't working.  You look at this graph and think that 7-9 seems about right.

However, I'm sticking with Dave Leitao on this one.  There's no reason why he can't fix this in the offseason or with what's left of this one.  We're not going make a postseason tournament.  Why not scrap the offense now and start over?  I would bet a move like that would improve morale.

The best example I can think of is Dino Gaudio.  Before this year, Skip Prosser and Gaudio's (by extension) defenses were porous.  But last offseason, he changed his ways.  He studied what the best coaches in the game were doing and implemented it.  Wake Forest is now one of the best (if not the best) defensive teams in the league.

Granted, it helps a lot to have a bunch of freakish athletes and the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation, but I refuse to believe it's a question of personnel with the Wahoos.  We have guys who can play; they just need to play together.  That's the responsibility of the coach. 

I know Leitao can get them to play in concert, but he may not have much time left if they don't start improving.

This article is available at Dear Old UVa.

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