Now before all of you fans jump on my back for calling the No. 1 recruit in the country a future bust, hear me out.
Nerlens Noel reminds a lot of people of Anthony Davis. While Davis was the National Player of the Year and the next No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft, Noel is not going to be as successful.
Both Davis and Noel stand 6'10". They are also both very lanky for their height, which hurts them, but both are athletes. Davis was once a point guard and still moves well and has terrific hops. Noel can jump, but he is not as effective a shot-blocker as Davis at this point in his career.
The biggest issue for Noel is on the offensive end. He cannot create his shot, and while some experts say that his offensive game is expanding, it is not at the point where he will average double-digit points in college.
In terms of college potential, Noel reminds me more of Andre Drummond than Anthony Davis. Noel is not going to be scoring as much as people would expect of a No. 1 overall recruit, and his defense won't make up for his inability to score.
Davis, like all recruits, had a drop-off in production in college. He averaged 32 points, 22 rebounds and eight blocks per game in his senior season. Noel, on the other hand, averaged 12.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.9 blocks per game.
I see a similar drop-off in store for Noel because of his weak frame, and that leaves him in a position to be a huge bust.