Arkansas-Auburn Running Diary

“If you want to destroy this sweater,
hold this thread as I walk away.”
Weezer - “The Sweater Song”

Slumps tend to get reduced to clichés, to their most basic level.  “The Hogs are losing because their shots aren’t falling.”  “They have been hurt by injuries and suspensions etc.”  “They aren’t giving effort.”  “They aren’t playing defense.”  “Pel sucks.”

All of those things may or may not be true, but as analysis they are meaningless.  Those things are, for the most part, results.  They are not the causes.

When looking at the cause of a failure, be it a basketball team or a Big Three auto company or the banking industry, it is dangerous to be TOO reductionist.  This is an essential truth in a TEAM sport.

Basketball, like just about everything else, is a “system” for lack of a better term.  It is not a series of individual events or shots.  It isn’t just matchups.  The way someone shoots depends on where they get the ball, what the score was, what kind of defense was being played, whether the seams of the ball were lined up nicely when the pass was received, whether the shooter’s legs feel bouncy, whether their girlfriend may or may not be cheating on them.

Further, the way that shooter is shooting affects everything and everybody else.  What defense do we play after a make vs. a miss?  What kind of shot does the opponent get off a long rebound?  Does the shooter pass up the next open look, or does he jack a bad shot because he feels hot?  Does a player on the end of the bench lose a girlfriend because being a baller for this team has suddenly lost its cachet?

What I am saying is that these things are complicated.  There are hundreds if not thousands of important variables on every team, in every game, on each possession, on each shot.  And each of the variables fundamentally affects all of the others.

This is, at least in part, Chaos Theory, and it is the central reason team sports can be so exciting and so maddening.  They cannot be accurately predicted.  This is the nature of any “system.”  It tends towards entropy, to disorder.  The coach and the team are always trying to rein this in, to harness its power.

Let me offer a couple of examples in basketball.

The Houston Cougars of Clyde Drexler and Phi Slamma Jamma made three straight Final Fours and two straight finals.  They were the dominant college team for two-plus years.  Before and after this period they were nearly irrelevant (save the Elvin Hayes era).  But I would argue that the overall talent in the program changed very little from year to year under Guy Lewis.

The results, however, were completely different.

Houston teams were notorious for looking great at times but being unable to get a big stop or a crucial basket.  These teams tended towards entropy, to disorder.  When they needed to buckle down and focus, they couldn’t.  This made them vulnerable.

During the Drexler years this changed.  I would argue it changed for two fundamental reasons, one well known and the other overlooked.

The well known change was Hakeem Olajuwon showing up.  From his first day he was an intimidating presence.  Early on his offense was nonexistent, but his defense was game-changing.  Hakeem instantly made that club a credible defensive team.  The basket was protected, and the rest were free to roam.

The less talked about change was Alvin Franklin.  He was an absolute bull of a point guard with a nice jumper, and with him running the show, all of a sudden Houston would buckle down on big possessions on both ends.  They had someone to take a clutch shot and exude calm.

Think of it as the difference between a team led by Kenny Hutchinson to a team led by Corey Beck.  It is hard to think of one individual skill in which Beck was a superior player, but nobody who watched them play would ever take Kenny over Corey.

Alvin Franklin and Corey Beck CONTROLLED disorder.  They reined everything in.  Established limits.  In doing that they allowed the rest of the team to run free and be loose and confident.

The other major example of controlling disorder is the NBA.  The players are so good, and the teams so ever-changing, that the only way to know what you are going to get every night is to reduce the game to matchups, one on one plays.  It would be great to run a “system” with that level of players.

To an extent Sacramento did just that during the Chris Webber years, and it was beautiful to watch.  Unfortunately the system was too fragile.  It broke down under pressure and with the loss of even one player of their top eight guys.  Bobby Jackson getting hurt would cripple them.

Billy Gillispie at Kentucky does something similar.  Each season he has two and only two major offensive players, usually one inside and one outside (this season Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson). The team will fight and struggle until they get comfortable with this, but then they produce extremely consistent results.

This was also the Eddie Sutton way.  Players have to wait in the wings as role players and hope to be tapped for stardom later in their careers.

And so I come to my beloved Hogs, a team of interesting parts that seems to have lost its way.  The thread has been pulled, and the fabric has come apart.  Weaving it together again falls on two people: John Pelphrey and Courtney Fortson.  Those two guys control more variables than anyone else.  They can create controlled chaos.

All the talk of Stef and RC and Washington and our struggles at the 4 are interesting and important, but in the end irrelevant.  Courtney controls the team on the floor, and Pel controls it off.

Arkansas’ struggles are the direct result of having a freshman point guard that, as of yet, doesn’t understand the overall game.  And just as quickly as it has gone south, it can turn great again if (and when) the light goes on in Courtney’s head.

Now on to the Auburn game.  Similar in many ways to Miss. State, they are a perimeter team.  But they lack Jarvis Varnado and have been mired in a culture of losing and living and dying with jump shots.  We SHOULD blow them out, but my confidence is shaky.

I’m tired for this game.  Very tired.  I worked all night, and I am getting old.  I bought an “energy drink” thinking it could pep me up.  Instead I found out it tastes like a combination of liquid bubble gum and urine.  I’m not a fan.

Beautiful day in NWA.  Cold in the shadows and warm in the sunlight.  I think that might be a metaphor for something.

The crowd isn’t great, but it’s not horrible.  Maybe two-thirds full.  Aesthetically we don’t measure up to the OU and Texas crowds from a couple weeks ago.  I think the pretty people must have dates.

Stat Girl is here and behind the scorer’s table.  She looks good, although I think she is wearing the same outfit as the last time I saw her—short black tunic and black slacks.  I think maybe you become an official stalker when you figure out the outfit rotation of someone you’ve never met.  Is there a stalker’s union or something I need to join?  Maybe a group that offers my kind free legal representation when the inevitable happens.  Just wondering.

Stef is wearing his headband again.  He also wore it at Florida and Ole Miss.  Coincidence? I think not.  This is bad.  Is there not a coach in charge of sartorial mistakes?  Someone that looks out for jinxes?  I’m available if you need me Pel.

Monk is in street clothes, no idea why.  Yikes! (Although it is troubling that I feel reliant on a football player who has only been with the team a couple of weeks.)

Let’s play ball!

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