Courtesy of FantasyRundown.com
Everyone loves the next great fantasy star, but if you are going for the championship this season, sometimes it is better to pass on the potential for immediate production.
Here are a few of the younger players I believe are being overvalued after researching average draft positions from multiple sites:
Carlos Quentin (11th OF, 30th Overall)
Before fracturing his wrist in early September, Quentin was among the favorites for AL MVP. Posting a .288/.394/.571 line in 569 plate appearances in his 26-year-old season, you can expect Quentin to be a top outfielder for years to come.
Still, looking into his numbers, I do not expect a repeat performance in 2009.
Quentin should be able to produce a decent batting average in the .280-.290 range, but his 20.7% HR/fly ball rate cannot be maintained.
Also, and maybe most importantly, wrist issues for power hitters are sometimes devastating. Just ask the owners who drafted Derrek Lee in 2007.
While I do expect Quentin will someday be able to return to top form, it won't likely happen this season. In annual re-draft leagues, I am not touching Quentin and unless you are a rebuilding keeper owner, downgrade him in your rankings.
Other Options Likely Available: Jason Bay (13th OF, 34th overall), Matt Kemp (15th OF, 41st overall) Nick Markakis (16th OF, 42nd overall)
Chris Davis (Seventh 3B, 86th Overall)
Last season, Davis made a huge splash in fantasy leagues, hitting for power in the best offensive park in baseball. But like Quentin, Davis had an abnormally high 20.5% HR/fly ball rate.
Even in Arlington he will not be able sustain that number over 600 plate appearances.
The same goes for that .353 BABIP—expect his batting average to be in the .245-.255 range until he learns to cut his strikeout rate.
This season, I am thinking Davis is Mark Reynolds with a slightly higher batting average. Is there value in that? Absolutely, but maybe I’d rather wait a few rounds and take...Reynolds.
Other Options Likely Available: Edwin Encarnacion (10th 3B, 145th overall), Mark Reynolds (13th 3B, 170th overall)
Other honorable mentions:
Matt Wieters (Ninth C, 178th Overall)
Wieters will be a great fantasy catcher someday, but I guarantee someone in every league will take him too early. Don’t be that person—take Bengie Molina.
Alexei Ramirez (Sixth 2B, 64th Overall)
Keith Law’s favorite player swings at too many pitches outside of the strike zone (42.6 percent O-Swing)—that will catch up to him this season. Consider Dan Uggla or even Mark DeRosa a few rounds later.
Joakim Soria (Sixth RP, 93rd Overall)
So few chances, I expect his ERA to increase and I am not convinced the Royals are ready to compete this season. Consider Jonathan Broxton two rounds later.