What Is Matt Kemp's Ceiling for 2012?
Matt Kemp is playing like a man on fire.
After a 2011 campaign which saw him fall just short of his first National League MVP award, Kemp is looking to up the stakes. He's won the NL Player of the Week award each week to open the season (three times over now), and is hitting at a .457/.500/.935 clip after 12 games.
Earlier this week, mlb.com's Anthony Castrovince asked the question: Could Kemp become the league's first 50-50 player? This comes in the face of Kemp's monster start, but also in response to the claim the Dodgers outfielder made in a conference call with MLB writers on November 22, stating "I'm going to go 50-50 next year."
Hmmm. Interesting.
Right now, Kemp looks like the best baseball player in the history of the sport. Names such as Barry Bonds are coming up in the same sentence with the 27-year-old Dodger.
But, let's slow this thing down a bit.
SBNation's Rob Neyer responded to Castrovince's piece with a little sanity, stating:
"If we think 50 home runs is realistic because Kemp's already hit six home runs, doesn't it follow that we have to think 50 steals is unrealistic...considering that he's stolen just one base this season, and been caught twice?
"
I would tend to agree that 50 home runs (even though Kemp's career-high sits at 39) is within reach. But 50 stolen bases? It probably wouldn't be smart for the Don Mattingly and the Dodgers to have their No. 3 hitter run that much. If he does go for 50, then it would be purely out of stat-padding, and that's never good.
But the part that caught my eye about Neyer's piece, which Castrovince also mentioned, was this:
"For one thing...this season he's got Andre Ethier hitting behind him, and probably will see more fastballs (and fewer than last season's 24 intentional walks).
"
On the surface, this makes sense. Having a better hitter bat behind him should force opposing hurlers to face Kemp head on in many more instances.
But is this actually true?
Maybe.
Last season, Andre Ethier played in 135 games for L.A., missing a good chunk of the end of the season due to knee problems, which he battled all year. He was essentially the de facto No. 3 hitter for the Dodgers, hitting in that spot for 116 of those games.
Matt Kemp, who has hit third for each of L.A.'s 12 games thus far in 2012, batted fourth for most of last season (starting 126 games in that spot).
Mattingly smartly flipped Kemp up to the three-hole this season, while Ethier has hit behind him for eight of the 12 games in 2011 (settling in that spot for the past four straight). So, has Kemp seen more fastballs this season?
Well...not exactly. Yes, I know, I know—small sample size and all that jazz. But since 2008, Kemp has seen the percentage of fastballs dealt to him go steadily down, regardless of who's hitting behind him (according to FanGraphs):
| Year | FB % |
| 2008 | 56.9 |
| 2009 | 54.0 |
| 2010 | 53.4 |
| 2011 | 50.5 |
| 2012 | 47.6 |
It seems as if opposing pitchers are simply giving him an increasing diet of off-speed/breaking stuff as he gets better, which is usually the case with a great hitter. But where Ethier probably will help is in the intentional walk department. Last year's total of 24 intentional passes (which was second in the majors behind Prince Fielder's 32) may go down slightly with Either behind him. Slightly.
As of this writing, Kemp is hitting .437 (14-for-32) with Ethier in the four-hole, and .500 (7-for-13) with his fellow outfielder hitting fifth.
The point is, Kemp will probably run roughshod over NL pitching regardless of who is hitting behind him, and Ethier won't make much of a difference to Kemp's final numbers. He will see less fastballs even with Ethier sitting there, even at his current pace.
As for 50/50? He may reach the power number, but don't bet on Kemp's swiping 50 bags in 2012.
