NBA Draft 2012: Boom-or-Bust Prospects Teams Must Gamble on in 1st Round

The words potential and gamble are never used as much as they are on draft day in any sport.

That’s especially the case when you are talking about the NBA draft, where more often than not, players drafted on potential fail to work out. That’s never stopped teams from rolling the dice and gambling on the P-word, though.

It’s hard to blame them.

When you’re dealing with 19- and 20-year-old players for the most part, potential is all teams really have to go on. Mostly for that reason alone, you see as many busts as you do stars in the first round of the draft.

With that being said, here’s a look at a collection of guys who teams must gamble on in the first round, with no guarantee that they become stars.

Andre Drummond, Connecticut

Drummond has worlds of potential and could become an NBA star, but we’ve seen a lot of big guys who left school early become busts.

He didn’t exactly dominate at UConn, scoring in single digits in 16 of 34 games and grabbing five or less rebounds 13 different times.

He’s got an NBA body, though, and you can see that he has the talent. Some team will definitely take a shot on him early and hope he becomes a star.

Perry Jones III, Baylor

No player defines boom or bust more than Jones. Sometimes he looks like a top-five pick, and sometimes he looks like a guy that shouldn’t be drafted.

Watching him play throughout the course of the season, you can tell what type of elite-level talent he possesses, although his numbers (13.5 PPG and 7.6 RPG) don't suggest a guy that will be a dominant player.

Some team has to roll the dice on Jones somewhat early and hope all of that talent comes out.

Tony Wroten, Washington

Wroten has a lot of flaws and could likely use another year of school, but he also has a ton of talent and will be worth some team investing time in him.

He shot only 16 percent from behind the arc and turned the ball over 3.8 times per game, while only averaging 3.7 assists per game.

But all of that is correctable in time, as Wroten has the chance to eventually become the best point guard in this class.

Dion Waiters, Syracuse

I’m very high on Waiters, but he doesn’t really have a true position, and that could be concerning down the road.

Despite only averaging 12.1 PPG, Waiters is viewed as a pure scorer, but he’s not an NBA point guard and doesn’t exactly have the size and the length to play the 2-guard consistently.

He’s likely a combo-guard that could become a good scorer in the NBA, but he may need the proper system to fit in.

Fab Melo, Syracuse

Melo has the size and the length and is worth taking a shot on late in the first round. His offensive game is raw, but he’s got a nice touch around the basket, shooting 56 percent on the season.

He will be able to become a solid defensive center (2.9 BPG) right off the bat. In drafting Melo, you’re drafting his potential, and he’s got a lot of it.

Meyers Leonard, Illinois

Leonard won’t be an NBA star off the bat, but he’s long and athletic, and the worst-case scenario is that he becomes a serviceable NBA center.

He’s got much more potential, though, and is worth a first-round pick toward the middle of the draft. Leonard can rebound (8.2 RPG) and block shots (1.9 BPG), but he’s got the chance to become a solid offensive threat, averaging 13.6 PPG on the season.

He needs to add strength, but he’s got a nice touch around the rim (.584 field-goal percentage) and is also capable of facing up and scoring.

C.J. Leslie, North Carolina State

Leslie is a work in progress, but he started to figure things out toward the end of the season.

He put together a solid season, averaging 14.7 PPG and 7.3 RPG and became the Wolfpack’s go-to guy as the season progressed.

He hasn’t declared yet, but if he does enter the draft, Leslie is worthy of a first-round gamble.

Arnett Moultrie, Mississippi State

Moultrie has all the talent in the world and is worth the gamble of a team in search of a big man. He’s got the size and strength to play the 4 or the 5 and the agility of a guard.

He’s got the explosiveness to become a legitimate rebounder after a season in which he averaged 16.4 PPG and 10.5 RPG. He may be a work in progress, but there’s a ton of talent there.

Drew Gordon, New Mexico

Gordon is an intriguing prospect who had a solid season in which he averaged 13.4 PPG and 10.9 RPG and could be worth a late first-round look.

He’s explosive and runs the floor well. He’s a great leaper and has a solid mid-range game. He’s the type of athlete that could become a good NBA player with time.

Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt

Ezeli has size and length and could fill a need for a team looking for a big man.

His offensive game needs to be polished, but he shot 60 percent on the season, so the talent to finish around the rim is there.

While that part of his game comes around, Ezeli's also a good shot-blocker (2.0 BPG) with a good feel for the game.