Mel Kiper 2012 NFL Mock Draft: 3 Prospects ESPN's Analyst Overrates

ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. is undoubtedly one of best in the business at evaluating college players entering the NFL, but he has vastly overrated a few player in his latest 2012 mock. 

It's easy to get caught up in the hype of one-year wonders and workout warriors, and Kiper Jr. has done exactly that with a few of his latest picks.

Here are the three prospects that Kiper Jr. has overrated the most in his latest mock draft.

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

2. *Washington Redskins (via STL 5-11): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Matt Kalil, OT, USC

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

6. *St. Louis Rams (via WAS 2-14): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

8. Miami Dolphins (6-10): Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

9. Carolina Panthers (6-10): Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

Poe was the star of the scouting combine, which is why he's being considered at the top of the draft. 

Don't get me wrong, I love Poe. He has all the potential in the world to become one of the most dominant defensive tackles in the NFL—the operative word being potential.

The Panthers are in need of a big body to clog up the middle, so this seems like a match made in heaven, but Poe has yet to prove on the field that he will live up to his potential. 

The problem is that, too often on tape, you see Poe get turned the wrong way on running plays by technicians on the offensive line. He doesn't play with proper leverage and is prone to getting moved—even at 350 pounds.

Playing at Memphis, Poe should have dominated the inferior competition of Conference USA. He didn't consistently perform at a high level against his competition, a bad sign of things to come.

Poe should be at best a mid-first round pick.

10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

11. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): Luke Kuechly, LB Boston College

12. Seattle Seahawks (7-9): Quinton Coples, DE, UNC

13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

14. Dallas Cowboys (8-7): Mark Barron, S, Alabama

15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Fletcher Cox, DE, Mississippi State

16. New York Jets (8-8): Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama

I'm not high on Upshaw at all. He showed a complete inability to turn his hips and cover at the combine, and he didn't do much to dispel that notion at his pro day.

He is a one-trick pony.

He can rush the passer, but even in that single aspect, Upshaw lacks the kind of burst and acceleration you look for in an elite pass-rusher. I do like the way he uses his heavy hands to control opposing linemen, but the reality is that Upshaw won't be able to abuse NFL linemen like he did in college.

The NFL is all about explosion and diversity, neither of which I see as strengths for Upshaw. I wouldn't take him until the second round, let alone in the middle of the first.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (via OAK 8-8): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Chandler Jones, DE/OLB, Syracuse

19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois

Mercilus will prove to be nothing more than a one-year wonder. 

Per ESPN, he led the NCAA last year in sacks (16) and forced fumbles (nine). Many of his sacks came on quick moves to the inside against slow, heavy-footed linemen—something Mercilus won't see much of in the NFL.

Mercilus lacks the explosive first step you see in today's elite NFL pass-rushers. He isn't strong enough to use his arms to move linemen out of the way when he fails to get around them either. 

The player I've watched extensively in the NFL that compares to Mercilus is Manny Lawson, a former defensive end out of North Carolina State who's now an outside linebacker for the Cincinnati Bengals. 

Mericilus will be mercilessly devoured by NFL offensive tackles. He isn't a first-round talent, and taking him here would be a huge mistake.

20. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

22. Cleveland Browns (via ATL 10-6): Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

23. Detroit Lions (10-6): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama

25. Denver Broncos (8-8): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

26. Houston Texans (10-6): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

27. New England Patriots (via NO 13-3): Shea McClellin, DE/OLB, Boise State

28. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC

29. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

31. New England Patriots (13-3): Derek Wolfe, DL, Cincinnati

32. New York Giants (9-7): Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

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