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One of the most memorable lines in movie history comes from Raiders of the Lost Ark. Marion, says to Indiana Jones, "You're not the man I knew ten years ago." Indy replies, "It's not the years, honey, it's the mileage...

NBA Veterans: Is It the Years or the Mileage?

by Andrew Ungvari (Senior Writer)

16

1,758 reads

Sports

February 28, 2008


One of the most memorable lines in movie history comes from Raiders of the Lost Ark. Marion, says to Indiana Jones, "You're not the man I knew ten years ago."

Indy replies, "It's not the years, honey, it's the mileage."

In 1995, Kevin Garnett became the first high school senior in 20 years to bypass college and jump directly to the NBA. It hadn't happened since 1975, when Darryl Dawkins and Bill Willoughby were drafted by the 76ers and Hawks, respectively.

There were a few players, like Shawn Kemp and Lloyd Daniels, who had enrolled in college but never played collegiate basketball before being drafted, but Garnett was the first since '75 to make the immediate jump.

Garnett's currently in his 12th season in the NBA and has shown very little drop-off in how effective he is on the basketball court. Even though his averages in points and rebounds are a little off from last season, that can be attributed more to the talent that now surrounds him in Boston more so than the fact that he's a year older.

A year after Garnett's historical leap, Kobe Bryant and Jermaine O'Neal followed him to the NBA. Although O'Neal's career has been sidetracked the last two seasons because of various injuries, it's safe to say that Bryant is still in the prime of his career.

While Garnett won the MVP award for the 2003-2004 season, both he and Bryant are considered leading candidates to win the award this season since both have led their teams to the best record in their respective conferences up to this point in the season.

It will be interesting to see, in the next couple of years, if it's the years or the mileage that determines when those NBA players who made the jump straight from high school start to show a dramatic decrease in production.

Tim Duncan, for example, played four years at Wake Forest before entering the NBA. Even though he's been in the NBA for two fewer years than Garnett and one fewer year than Bryant, he's a month older than Garnett and more than two years older than Bryant.

Has Duncan's production decreased at all? I don't think so, considering he won his fourth championship ring this past season and finished fourth in the MVP voting.

To date, Garnett has played 177 more regular season games in his career than Duncan has but Duncan has played in 91 more playoff games than Garnett.

Since both men are very similar in size and both are in optimum shape, the two will serve as the perfect comparison for which is more telling, the years or the mileage.

Hakeem Olajuwon, although heavier, was similar in size to both Garnett and Duncan. He came into the NBA in 1984 at the age of 22. He left the University of Houston after his junior season but he redshirted his freshman year so he'd been there for four years.

Olajuwon played 18 seasons in the NBA, retiring at the age of 39. If you take a close look at Olajuwon's career numbers, you'll notice the steep drop-off in his numbers that occurred from the 1996-1997 to the 1997-1998 season. He missed 35 games due to injury. Even though he was playing only two fewer minutes per game that season, his averages in rebounding stayed the same but his points per game went from 23 to 16.

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16 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment

  1. Michael Whittenberg about 1 year ago

    Great article and good question. When it comes to KG and Tim Duncan, I think that Duncan will be the first to drop-off.

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    • Andrew Ungvari about 1 year ago

      Like I wrote below, all those playoff games that Duncan's played will definitely catch up to him. If Duncan wanted to, I think he could play until he's 40.

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  2. David Leney about 1 year ago

    Another fantastic and original article. I'd love to think it's age and not mileage, but an 82 game season not including playoffs has got to be hard on the body.

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  3. Matt DeNicola about 1 year ago

    a question for the ages ...

    pardon the pun

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  4. Erick Blasco about 1 year ago

    Fantastic article and I think every basketball fan echoes your last sentence.

    I think players that get by with their brains and know how to pace themsevles put themselves in the best position to age with grace. Olajuwon was one of those players and Duncan is one of those players. KG probably wont drop off the map either and will probably suffer a slow decline.

    Kobe is tough to read because he's so gifted, even if he loses a step, he'll be better than his opponents.

    Carter is the kind of player who only gets by on his athleticism. He's starting to lose his elevation and is the kind of player to dropping off the map.

    More to the point of your article, players have a much easier time playing college basketball because of it's more laxed schedule and lesser demands on a player. Intuitively speaking, I'd have to say that a player's mileage in the NBA is the determining factor of when he starts to diminish. Then again, players like Duncan have all those playoff games weighing them down.

    I wonder if minutes per game also plays a factor. A player who ends up playing an extreme amount of minutes should conceivably break down earlier. I wonder how that would affect a player like Iverson in the next few years.

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    • Andrew Ungvari about 1 year ago

      Great point on Iverson. Makes me wish I'd included him in the article. He's definitely not falling down as much as he used to. Neither is Wade but he's not penetrating nearly as much. I don't think it's smart for him to play in Beijing. He's clearly not 100%. If Iverson opts out and gets himself a five-year deal, whatever team signs him will probably regret those last two years. If the Nuggets miss the playoffs, I can see him coming back for one more year and getting traded at the deadline.

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  5. Dallin Page about 1 year ago

    I think Duncan will definitely drop off before Garnett. One of the biggest factors in this is the two different styles they play. Duncan is more the type to grind it out in the middle, whereas Garnett is a more finesse player.

    This was an excellent article though, and something that has always been on my mind. I wuold love to see every player make it into their late 30's

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    • Andrew Ungvari about 1 year ago

      Neither players is much of a grinder but all those playoff games might take their toll on Timmy first. Both guys are so smart and bigs tend to play well into their 30s.

      Thanks.

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  6. Patrick Houston about 1 year ago

    I agree with Erick all the way. I think Vince Carter will drop off drastically within the next 2 to 3 years.

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  7. David Leney about 1 year ago

    All signs point to Iverson declining in a few years, but he is so freakishly athletic. He's 34 and beating guys 10 years younger than him off the dribble. He may not penetrate the way he used to but he still finds ways to score, and I just can't conceivably see that stop anytime soon.

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  8. Jeff Little about 1 year ago

    Excellant read & I think every basketball fan echoes your last sentence. I would have to agree with Erick that it will be Vince Carter dropping off in the next 2-3 years. I like him when he goes to the basket as oppose to relying on an inconsistent jumper or a fall away 3 pointer.In my opinion he is a slasher and needs stay with that role and improve his mid-range game to remain effective.

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  9. michael eisner about 1 year ago

    The Abe Vigoda picture is priceless.

    I was going to upload that myself.

    Good work!

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    • Andrew Ungvari about 1 year ago

      Thanks, Michael. Any friend of Abe's is a friend of mine. I've been trying to name a drink after Abe for the past couple years. You trying to tell me that Shirley Temple, Rob Roy, Arnold Palmer and Tom Collins are more deserving than the one and only Sal Tessio? C'mon.

      Next time you go into a bar, ask the bartender for an Abe Vigoda. When he asks you what it is, tell him it's a Red Bull-Vodka. Before you know it, everyone will be calling it an Abe Vigoda, and you can take the credit.

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    • Matt DeNicola about 1 year ago

      Nah, Andrew ... Abe isn't no Red Bull-Vodka. It's gotta be less trendy. Something for the ages. Like anisette, vodka, and lime juice. That's an Abe Vigoda.

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    • Andrew Ungvari about 1 year ago

      You're absolutely right. We may have to give more of a Vigoda twist, though. Like a brandied apricot or a prune.

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  10. michael eisner about 1 year ago

    Call it Fish.

    Abe Vigoda. Ageless. Priceless. A true 70s American Icon. Old as dirt and still lookin' sharp as he did thirty years ago.

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