After a little over two months of the college basketball season, there is now enough information, including a few conference matchups, to make some early judgments on where the teams stand vis-a-vis their preseason expectations.
After looking at the major and many of the mid-major conferences, I have concluded that nearly every one of them has at least one "force," one "fraud," and one "fruitcake" (a team that would make Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde proud).
The definitions are as follows:
The Force: This is a team that much is or was expected of, and they are delivering on those expectations. They are not just winning now; they will continue to win. They must be a legitimate threat to win the regular-season conference title. They need not have been a preseason favorite, but they need to have proven that they are "the real thing."
The Fruitcake (pictured above): This is a team that you don't want to place any wagers on. One day, they might take down a top-5 team; the next, they may lose to a mediocre team from the Atlantic 10. They are the Jekylls and Hydes...one can never be sure which team will show up on any given day.
The Fraud: This is a team that either has a gaudy record because they have been beating up on inferior opponents or has been thoroughly underwhelming not because they lack the talent, but because they were overrated to begin with. They may or may not have been exposed yet, but are candidates for a one-and-done in March, if they are playing in the NCAA tournament at all.
In order to prevent any accusations of bias (especially the evil scourge of "East Coast Bias"), the conferences included will be listed in alphabetical order. In this edition, I will take a look at the ACC, Atlantic 10, Big East, and Big South. Part II will examine the Big Ten, Big XII, CAA, and Conference USA.
Atlantic Coast Conference
The Force: Duke Blue Devils (16-1, 3-0)
Wake Forest (16-0, 3-0) is undefeated and No. 1 in the country, so why does Duke get the nod? As detailed in a previous article, I believe the Devils have more staying power than the Deacons. They have faced a more challenging schedule and have dominated (not just defeated) all the currently ranked opponents they have faced.
The Blue Devils have faced six teams that have been ranked at some point in the season to Wake's four and have looked extraordinary in those wins, while Wake had a tough time putting away Clemson and UNC (no shame in that) in the second half. Make no mistake: Wake Forest is no fruitcake or fraud and Jan. 28th witnesses a clash of these two titans in Winston-Salem.
The Fruitcake: Maryland Terrapins (12-5, 1-2)
Maryland has a blowout of Michigan State on their resume (at a neutral court) as well as a home win over Michigan. The Terps are five points from a 3-0 record in the ACC, suffering a two-point loss at Florida State and a three-point loss to Miami (FL), two quality ACC opponents.
Nevertheless, the games are losses and devastating ones at that.
Maryland has just one bad loss, but it's a doozy. They fell 66-65 at home to Morgan State and will likely need a minimum 9-7 conference record, complete with a couple of quality wins over the top teams in the ACC, to be dancing in March.
The Fraud: Boston College Eagles (13-6, 1-3)
I thought Virginia Tech (12-5, 2-1) would be pencilled into this slot given their preseason expectations, but Boston College has gone out of their way to prove themselves more worthy of the "fraudulent" label.
How do you squander the poll standing you gain after handing North Carolina a shocking loss in Chapel Hill? Follow it up with a 12-point home loss to mid-tier Ivy League school Harvard and three additional losses, including to the aforementioned Hokies.
The Eagles will be looking at the NIT in March, assuming they manage to stay a couple of games above .500. What a shame for phenom Tyrese Rice.
27 Comments
Loading more comments...
This comment and all replies have been deleted This comment has been deleted Undo delete