New York Rangers' Offensive Stats Don't Lie

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New York Rangers' Offensive Stats Don't Lie

Is there any truth in the myth that the Rangers don’t have much by the way of judgement when it comes to signing good offensive players? Careers should thrive at the Garden, instead it seems to be where they come to die.
 
Bear with me on this one. Statistics are hard to follow at the best of times, and this article has attempted to calculate a players worth by working out the average a team pays a player per point and multiplying that by this years projected number of points for that player.

Taking the Rangers, the Red Wings, the Bruins and the Sharks to compare:

Currently, the teams’ offensive units are remunerated nicely:

NYR    $29,188,009.00
SJS    $30,792,500.00
DET    $31,255,000.00
BOS    $29,308,333.00

No surprises that New York pay the least when it comes to offence. However, what is interesting is how the Rangers offensive budget is distributed.

      GP PTS ProjP Cap Hit $PP WORTH +/-
1 Nikolai Zherdev NYR 45 37 67 2,500,000.00 $37,313.43 $3,901,755.89 -$1,401,755.89
2 Scott Gomez NYR 40 29 59 7,357,143.00 $124,697.34 $3,435,874.59 $3,921,268.41
7 Chris Drury NYR 45 29 53 7,050,000.00 $133,018.87 $3,086,463.62 $3,963,536.38
15 Markus Naslund NYR 45 28 51 4,000,000.00 $78,431.37 $2,969,993.29 $1,030,006.71
18 Brandon Dubinsky NYR 45 23 42 633,333.00 $15,079.36 $2,445,876.83 -$1,812,543.83
20 Nigel Dawes NYR 35 16 37 587,500.00 $15,878.38 $2,154,701.01 -$1,567,201.01
21 Ryan Callahan NYR 45 17 31 575,000.00 $18,548.39 $1,805,290.04 -$1,230,290.04
23 Aaron Voros NYR 40 14 29 1,000,000.00 $34,482.76 $1,688,819.71 -$688,819.71
30 Petr Prucha NYR 18 6 27 1,600,000.00 $59,259.26 $1,572,349.39 $27,650.61
33 Dan Fritsche NYR 15 4 22 875,000.00 $39,772.73 $1,281,173.58 -$406,173.58
38 Lauri Korpikoski NYR 33 5 12 1,017,533.00 $84,794.42 $698,821.95 $318,711.05
39 Blair Betts NYR 44 6 11 615,000.00 $55,909.09 $640,586.79 -$25,586.79
40 Fredrik Sjostrom NYR 43 5 10 840,000.00 $84,000.00 $582,351.63 $257,648.37
44 Colton Orr NYR 45 4 7 537,500.00 $76,785.71 $407,646.14 $129,853.86
The above table contains the following information:

1.    ProjP: Projected number of points for the 08/09 season. Calculated as (Pts/GP)*82.

2.    CAP HIT: The amount of the total team salary cap that the player occupies with his wage.

3.    $PP: Dollars Per Point. Calculated by (CAP HIT/ProjP)

4.    Worth: This will be explained more later, but it takes the average $PP from all offensive players from NYR, DET, BOS and SJS and multiplies it by the ProjP.

5.    +/-: Not your traditional plus minus, but an illustration of how overpaid or underpaid a player is.

The key thing to remember is that this article will not take into account the perceived worth of the players. Leadership and commitment, for instance, are all unquantifiable, but when it comes down to it, points and goals matter. Neither does it take into account defensive contributions.

The Comparison

Okay…so now we have the educational bit out of the way, we can get down to seeing how the teams match up.

San Jose Sharks
Currently, the Sharks are 1st in the NHL on points with 69. They have a .821 win percentage (1st in NHL) and score 3.50 goals per game (4th), whilst conceding only 2.33 goals per game (3rd).

Boston Bruins
Currently standing 2nd with 68 points, they have a win percentage of .791 (2nd). They score 3.60 goals per game (2nd) but have the stingiest defence in the league letting in only 2.12 goals per game (1st).

Detroit Red Wings
The Wings have 66 points to their name (3rd) with a .767 (3rd) win percentage. While they score 3.63 goals per game (1st), they have a 2.79 goals against (14th).

New York Rangers
The Rangers are currently on 56 points (T-5th) with a .622 win percentage (9th). Their anaemic goals per game is currently 2.49 (24th…even the league losing Islanders score more) yet their goals against average is 2.58.

Okay so now we have that…let’s see where the Rangers fail.

  Points % GPG GAG
DET 66 0.767 3.63 2.79
NYR 56 0.622 2.49 2.58
SJS 69 0.821 3.5 2.33
BOS 68 0.791 3.6 2.12


Everywhere, then.

Let’s look at this in more detail, and examine why I decided to focus on the offensive units of the teams.

As we can see, this really isn’t a defensive problem. The Rangers have a healthy goal against average (largely thanks to superb goaltending from both Lundqvist and Valiquette), but the simple fact of the matter is that they do not score. In fact, you have to go down to 13th placed Carolina to find the next team who concede more goals than they score.

Okay, so…why is this happening, let’s take a look at the players:

      GP PTS ProjP Cap Hit $PP WORTH +/-
3 Joe Thornton SJS 42 52 102 7,200,000.00 $70,588.24 $5,939,986.58 $1,260,013.42
6 Pavel Datsyuk DET 43 52 99 6,700,000.00 $67,676.77 $5,765,281.09 $934,718.91
9 Marc Savard BOS 43 52 99 $5,000,000.00 $50,422.14 $5,765,281.09 -$765,281.09
10 Patrick Marleau SJS 42 48 94 6,300,000.00 $67,021.28 $5,474,105.28 $825,894.72
36 David Krejci BOS 43 48 92 $883,333.00 $9,650.23 $5,357,634.96 -$4,474,301.96
41 Devin Setoguchi SJS 41 42 84 1,246,667.00 $14,841.27 $4,891,753.66 -$3,645,086.66
48 Marian Hossa DET 43 42 80 7,450,000.00 $93,125.00 $4,658,813.00 $2,791,187.00
51 Phil Kessel BOS 42 41 80 $2,200,000.00 $27,483.64 $4,658,813.00 -$2,458,813.00
52 Henrik Zetterberg DET 41 39 78 2,900,000.00 $37,179.49 $4,542,342.68 -$1,642,342.68
53 Tomas Plihal SJS 38 33 71 500,000.00 $7,042.25 $4,134,696.54 -$3,634,696.54


Interesting reading. Of the Top 10 projected points scorers from the four teams, not one Ranger makes it onto the list.
 
San Jose, on the other hand, will get 351 points from their representatives in the Top 10. Detroit? 392.

The individual stars of this chart.

•    Joe Thornton, on pace to go over 100 points this season, and is therefore only statistically overvalued by $1.26m.
•    Henrik Zetterberg, on pace to score 78 points, not quite the same as his 92 point season last year, but still a bargain for $2.9m. Undervalued statistically by $1.64m.
•    Devin Setoguchi, 84 projected points and only $1.25m. Undervalued by $3.64m.
•    Marc Savard, on pace for 99 points, and undervalued by $765k.

But let us not forget the wise old saying 10 players does not 3 teams make…okay…well, it’s not a saying as such. More of a way for us to segway nicely into analysing more of the Rangers payroll problems.

If the Rangers AREN’T anywhere in the Top 10, where are they?

      GP PTS ProjP Cap Hit $PP WORTH +/-
1 Joe Thornton SJS 42 52 102 7,200,000.00 $70,588.24 $5,939,986.58 $1,260,013.42
2 Pavel Datsyuk DET 43 52 99 6,700,000.00 $67,676.77 $5,765,281.09 $934,718.91
3 Marc Savard BOS 43 52 99 $5,000,000.00 $50,422.14 $5,765,281.09 -$765,281.09
4 Patrick Marleau SJS 42 48 94 6,300,000.00 $67,021.28 $5,474,105.28 $825,894.72
5 David Krejci BOS 43 48 92 $883,333.00 $9,650.23 $5,357,634.96 -$4,474,301.96
6 Devin Setoguchi SJS 41 42 84 1,246,667.00 $14,841.27 $4,891,753.66 -$3,645,086.66
7 Marian Hossa DET 43 42 80 7,450,000.00 $93,125.00 $4,658,813.00 $2,791,187.00
8 Phil Kessel BOS 42 41 80 $2,200,000.00 $27,483.64 $4,658,813.00 -$2,458,813.00
9 Henrik Zetterberg DET 41 39 78 2,900,000.00 $37,179.49 $4,542,342.68 -$1,642,342.68
10 Tomas Plihal SJS 38 33 71 500,000.00 $7,042.25 $4,134,696.54 -$3,634,696.54
11 Tomas Holmstrom DET 35 29 68 2,250,000.00 $33,088.24 $3,959,991.05 -$1,709,991.05
12 Nikolai Zherdev NYR 45 37 67 2,500,000.00 $37,313.43 $3,901,755.89 -$1,401,755.89
13 Jiri Hudler DET 43 35 67 1,150,000.00 $17,164.18 $3,901,755.89 -$2,751,755.89
14 Johan Franzen DET 38 30 65 1,150,000.00 $17,692.31 $3,785,285.57 -$2,635,285.57
15 Ryane Clowe SJS 42 33 64 1,600,000.00 $25,000.00 $3,727,050.40 -$2,127,050.40
16 Michael Ryder BOS 43 32 61 $4,000,000.00 $65,548.78 $3,552,344.92 $447,655.08
17 Scott Gomez NYR 40 29 59 7,357,143.00 $124,697.34 $3,435,874.59 $3,921,268.41
18 Joe Pavelski SJS 40 29 59 1,637,500.00 $27,754.24 $3,435,874.59 -$1,798,374.59
19 Mikael Samuelsson DET 42 30 59 1,200,000.00 $20,338.98 $3,435,874.59 -$2,235,874.59
20 Milan Michalek SJS 37 26 58 4,333,333.00 $74,712.64 $3,377,639.43 $955,693.57
21 Marco Sturm BOS 19 13 56 $3,500,000.00 $62,382.74 $3,261,169.10 $238,830.90
22 Chris Drury NYR 45 29 53 7,050,000.00 $133,018.87 $3,086,463.62 $3,963,536.38
23 Blake Wheeler BOS 43 28 53 $2,825,000.00 $52,907.23 $3,086,463.62 -$261,463.62
24 Chuck Kobasew BOS 31 20 53 $2,333,333.00 $44,105.68 $3,086,463.62 -$753,130.62
25 Milan Lucic BOS 40 26 53 $850,000.00 $15,947.47 $3,086,463.62 -$2,236,463.62
26 Daniel Cleary DET 35 22 52 2,500,000.00 $48,076.92 $3,028,228.45 -$528,228.45
27 Markus Naslund NYR 45 28 51 4,000,000.00 $78,431.37 $2,969,993.29 $1,030,006.71
28 Patrice Bergeron BOS 31 18 48 $4,750,000.00 $99,762.87 $2,795,287.80 $1,954,712.20
29 Jonathan Cheechoo SJS 30 17 46 3,000,000.00 $65,217.39 $2,678,817.48 $321,182.52
30 Brandon Dubinsky NYR 45 23 42 633,333.00 $15,079.36 $2,445,876.83 -$1,812,543.83
31 Nigel Dawes NYR 35 16 37 587,500.00 $15,878.38 $2,154,701.01 -$1,567,201.01
32 Mike Grier SJS 40 18 37 1,775,000.00 $47,972.97 $2,154,701.01 -$379,701.01
33 P. J. Axelsson BOS 40 17 35 $850,000.00 $24,390.24 $2,038,230.69 -$1,188,230.69
34 Valtteri Filppula DET 43 18 34 2,000,000.00 $58,823.53 $1,979,995.53 $20,004.47
35 Ryan Callahan NYR 45 17 31 575,000.00 $18,548.39 $1,805,290.04 -$1,230,290.04
36 Aaron Voros NYR 40 14 29 1,000,000.00 $34,482.76 $1,688,819.71 -$688,819.71
37 Petr Prucha NYR 18 6 27 1,600,000.00 $59,259.26 $1,572,349.39 $27,650.61
38 Stephane Yelle BOS 43 13 25 $750,000.00 $30,253.28 $1,455,879.06 -$705,879.06
39 Jeremy Roenick SJS 28 8 23 1,100,000.00 $47,826.09 $1,339,408.74 -$239,408.74
40 Dan Fritsche NYR 15 4 22 875,000.00 $39,772.73 $1,281,173.58 -$406,173.58
41 Marcel Goc SJS 34 8 19 775,000.00 $40,789.47 $1,106,468.09 -$331,468.09
42 Lukas Kaspar SJS 9 2 18 600,000.00 $33,333.33 $1,048,232.93 -$448,232.93
43 Tomas Kopecky DET 42 7 14 525,000.00 $37,500.00 $815,292.28 -$290,292.28
44 Lauri Korpikoski NYR 33 5 12 1,017,533.00 $84,794.42 $698,821.95 $318,711.05
45 Shawn Thornton BOS 43 6 11 $516,667.00 $45,155.86 $640,586.79 -$123,919.79
46 Blair Betts NYR 44 6 11 615,000.00 $55,909.09 $640,586.79 -$25,586.79
47 Kris Draper DET 43 5 10 1,850,000.00 $185,000.00 $582,351.63 $1,267,648.37
48 Kirk Maltby DET 40 5 10 950,000.00 $95,000.00 $582,351.63 $367,648.37
49 Fredrik Sjostrom NYR 43 5 10 840,000.00 $84,000.00 $582,351.63 $257,648.37
50 Jody Shelley SJS 36 3 7 725,000.00 $103,571.43 $407,646.14 $317,353.86
51 Colton Orr NYR 45 4 7 537,500.00 $76,785.71 $407,646.14 $129,853.86
52 Darren McCarty DET 13 1 6 630,000.00 $105,000.00 $349,410.98 $280,589.02
53 Petteri Nokelainen BOS 25 1 3 $850,000.00 $259,146.34 $174,705.49 $675,294.51


Ironically, the first Ranger in the list is their number 13, Nikolai Zherdev in 13th place with a projected 67 points. Undervalued by $1.4m

Other than that, we have the following:

      GP PTS ProjP Cap Hit $PP WORTH +/-
12 Nikolai Zherdev NYR 45 37 67 2,500,000.00 $37,313.43 $3,901,755.89 -$1,401,755.89
17 Scott Gomez NYR 40 29 59 7,357,143.00 $124,697.34 $3,435,874.59 $3,921,268.41
22 Chris Drury NYR 45 29 53 7,050,000.00 $133,018.87 $3,086,463.62 $3,963,536.38
27 Markus Naslund NYR 45 28 51 4,000,000.00 $78,431.37 $2,969,993.29 $1,030,006.71
30 Brandon Dubinsky NYR 45 23 42 633,333.00 $15,079.36 $2,445,876.83 -$1,812,543.83
31 Nigel Dawes NYR 35 16 37 587,500.00 $15,878.38 $2,154,701.01 -$1,567,201.01
35 Ryan Callahan NYR 45 17 31 575,000.00 $18,548.39 $1,805,290.04 -$1,230,290.04
36 Aaron Voros NYR 40 14 29 1,000,000.00 $34,482.76 $1,688,819.71 -$688,819.71
37 Petr Prucha NYR 18 6 27 1,600,000.00 $59,259.26 $1,572,349.39 $27,650.61
40 Dan Fritsche NYR 15 4 22 875,000.00 $39,772.73 $1,281,173.58 -$406,173.58
44 Lauri Korpikoski NYR 33 5 12 1,017,533.00 $84,794.42 $698,821.95 $318,711.05
46 Blair Betts NYR 44 6 11 615,000.00 $55,909.09 $640,586.79 -$25,586.79
49 Fredrik Sjostrom NYR 43 5 10 840,000.00 $84,000.00 $582,351.63 $257,648.37
51 Colton Orr NYR 45 4 7 537,500.00 $76,785.71 $407,646.14 $129,853.86


This paints a fairly predictable picture. Although Zherdev is a surprise at the top of the Rangers’ point scorers, he is followed by Gomez, Drury and Naslund. All overvalued, but combining for 163 points between the three of them.

However, if we look at the Rangers in terms of over/under valuing their players in comparison to the rest of the teams, we get this:

      GP PTS ProjP Cap Hit $PP WORTH +/-
1 Chris Drury NYR 45 29 53 7,050,000.00 $133,018.87 $3,086,463.62 $3,963,536.38
2 Scott Gomez NYR 40 29 59 7,357,143.00 $124,697.34 $3,435,874.59 $3,921,268.41
4 Marian Hossa DET 43 42 80 7,450,000.00 $93,125.00 $4,658,813.00 $2,791,187.00
7 Patrice Bergeron BOS 31 18 48 $4,750,000.00 $99,762.87 $2,795,287.80 $1,954,712.20
12 Kris Draper DET 43 5 10 1,850,000.00 $185,000.00 $582,351.63 $1,267,648.37
17 Joe Thornton SJS 42 52 102 7,200,000.00 $70,588.24 $5,939,986.58 $1,260,013.42
20 Markus Naslund NYR 45 28 51 4,000,000.00 $78,431.37 $2,969,993.29 $1,030,006.71
22 Milan Michalek SJS 37 26 58 4,333,333.00 $74,712.64 $3,377,639.43 $955,693.57
28 Pavel Datsyuk DET 43 52 99 6,700,000.00 $67,676.77 $5,765,281.09 $934,718.91
47 Patrick Marleau SJS 42 48 94 6,300,000.00 $67,021.28 $5,474,105.28 $825,894.72


That’s right folks! Gomez and Drury are the most over-valued players from the four teams. Combining for a measly 112 points between them they hit the Rangers cap for over $14m. A combined over valuation of $7.88m.

In 7th place above, Markus Naslund, the 3rd Ranger to make the table. He would add 51 points to the Rangers tally, but at a cost of $4m in 08/09. Over valued by $1.03m.

What does this show us? Well, the players above combined over-valuation stands at around $18.9m with the Rangers contingent of the Top 10 contributing around $8.92m or 47% of the Top 10 over-valuation.

Considering the Rangers offence is ranked 24th in the league, does it not seem like the Rangers are paying over the odds for players that aren’t producing? The Sharks, Bruins and Red Wings are guilty of statistically overvaluing some of their players a little, but they have clearly got more than statistical value if their offences are ranked within the top 5 in the NHL, and their teams standing 1st, 2nd and 3rd respectively.

If you take the statistics from the all 53 offensive statistics, the Rangers tendency to over-value players becomes even more apparent:

These figures are the average amount that a player is over/under valued by their team.
 
BOS    -$742,383.90
DET    -$471,690.34
NYR     $179,736.04
SJS    -$686,452.37

Not great if you’re from Boston, on average you could command ¾ million more per year. If you went to the Rangers from Boston, you’d probably get paid $922k more.

Now for a closer look at the Rangers.

      GP PTS ProjP Cap Hit $PP WORTH +/-
1 Chris Drury NYR 45 29 53 7,050,000.00 $133,018.87 $3,086,463.62 $3,963,536.38
2 Scott Gomez NYR 40 29 59 7,357,143.00 $124,697.34 $3,435,874.59 $3,921,268.41
7 Markus Naslund NYR 45 28 51 4,000,000.00 $78,431.37 $2,969,993.29 $1,030,006.71
15 Lauri Korpikoski NYR 33 5 12 1,017,533.00 $84,794.42 $698,821.95 $318,711.05
18 Fredrik Sjostrom NYR 43 5 10 840,000.00 $84,000.00 $582,351.63 $257,648.37
20 Colton Orr NYR 45 4 7 537,500.00 $76,785.71 $407,646.14 $129,853.86
21 Petr Prucha NYR 18 6 27 1,600,000.00 $59,259.26 $1,572,349.39 $27,650.61
23 Blair Betts NYR 44 6 11 615,000.00 $55,909.09 $640,586.79 -$25,586.79
30 Dan Fritsche NYR 15 4 22 875,000.00 $39,772.73 $1,281,173.58 -$406,173.58
33 Aaron Voros NYR 40 14 29 1,000,000.00 $34,482.76 $1,688,819.71 -$688,819.71
38 Ryan Callahan NYR 45 17 31 575,000.00 $18,548.39 $1,805,290.04 -$1,230,290.04
39 Nikolai Zherdev NYR 45 37 67 2,500,000.00 $37,313.43 $3,901,755.89 -$1,401,755.89
40 Nigel Dawes NYR 35 16 37 587,500.00 $15,878.38 $2,154,701.01 -$1,567,201.01
44 Brandon Dubinsky NYR 45 23 42 633,333.00 $15,079.36 $2,445,876.83 -$1,812,543.83


This is how the Rangers over/under table looks at the moment.

Let’s say we take out EVERYONE who is over valued, pay the remaining Rangers what they are worth, and then see what the Rangers could afford to pay players from other teams.

    TEAM GP PTS ProjP CapHit $PP WORTH Over/Under
C Marc Savard BOS 43 52 99 5,000,000.00 50,422.14 5,765,281.09 765,281.09
C David Krejci BOS 43 48 92 883,333.00 9,650.23 5,357,634.96 4,474,301.96
C Brandon Dubinsky NYR 45 23 42 2,450,000.00 15,079.36 2,445,876.83 -4,123.17
C Blair Betts NYR 44 6 11 640,000.00 55,909.09 640,586.79 586.79
RW Johan Franzen DET 38 30 65 1,150,000.00 17,692.31 3,785,285.57 2,635,285.57
RW Phil Kessel BOS 42 41 80 2,200,000.00 27,483.64 4,658,813.00 -2,458,813.00
RW Nikolai Zherdev NYR 45 37 67 3,900,000.00 37,313.43 3,901,755.89 1,755.89
RW Ryan Callahan NYR 45 17 31 1,810,000.00 18,548.39 1,805,290.04 -4,709.96
LW Jiri Hudler DET 43 35 67 1,150,000.00 17,164.18 3,901,755.89 2,751,755.89
LW Ryane Clowe SJS 42 33 64 1,600,000.00 25,000.00 3,727,050.40 2,127,050.40
LW Nigel Dawes NYR 35 16 37 2,150,000.00 15,878.38 2,154,701.01 4,701.01
LW Aaron Voros NYR 40 14 29 1,690,000.00 34,482.76 1,688,819.71 -1,180.29
  Dan Fritsche NYR 15 4 22 1,280,000.00 39,772.73 1,281,173.58 1,173.58
 
              PREVIOUS CAP HIT   $29,188,009.00
              PREVIOUS OFFENSIVE POINTS   458
              NEW CAP HIT   $25,903,333.00
              CAP ROOM   $3,284,676.00
              NEW OFFENSIVE POINTS   706
              SJS OFFENSIVE POINTS 08/09   682
              DET OFFENSIVE POINTS 08/09   642
              BOS OFFENSIVE POINTS 08/09   669


So, by taking out the Rangers currently over-valued players, they could theoretically acquire:

•    Marc Savard
•    David Krejci
•    Johan Franzen
•    Phil Kessell
•    Jiri Hudler
•    Ryan Clowe

All this at a cost of $3.28m less than the Rangers currently are hit for, leaving them room to negotiate.

The players would bring in a projected 248 more points between them, putting the Rangers ahead of the other three teams in terms of projected points.

Evidently, if the Rangers weren’t to pay existing players what they are statistically worth, they would have a lot more room to negotiate. Some $10m per year, in fact.

Let’s have a look around the league at what that could bring in.

    GP PTS     CapHit $PP WORTH Over/Under
Evgeni Malkin PIT 45 49 67 122 $8,700,000.00 $71,311.48 $7,104,689.52 $1,595,310.48
Alexander Ovechkin WSH 43 28 57 109 $9,538,462.00 $87,508.83 $6,347,632.44 $3,190,829.56
Ryan Getzlaf ANA 44 37 53 99 $5,325,000.00 $53,787.88 $5,765,280.84 -$440,280.84
Zach Parise NJD 43 25 50 95 $3,125,000.00 $32,894.74 $5,532,340.20 -$2,407,340.20


Personally, I would have any of them on the Rangers. Just not Crosby, can’t stand the guy!
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