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Kemp was good in '11, but expect a regression.
Matt Kemp said he wants to be MLB's first 50/50 player. Maybe he should get to 40/40 before making a statement like that.
Kemp hit a career-high 39 home runs in 2011—he never hit more than 28 in his entire career.
Now, take a look at his HR/FB rate. Last season, Kemp was at 21.4 percent. Again, this number is way above his career average. In his first five MLB seasons, Kemp was just below 15 percent.
The power numbers are going to come down, leaving Kemp just short of 30 homers.
On the other hand, the stolen bases for Kemp are also going to be very close.
Kemp has had 30-plus steals in three of the last four seasons (including 40 last year). His OBP was the highest since becoming a full-time starter, so that should come down as well. The fewer times Kemp is on base, the fewer times he has a chance to steal.
Ultimately, I think Kemp will finish with a 28/29 season.