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The SEC hasn't been quite the same since Florida won back-to-back championships. The level of competition once the entire starting Gator squad left and Tubby Smith left Kentucky to go coach Minnesota has decreased substantially...

College Hoops Picks: Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers

by Ryan Brennan (Columnist)

11

302 reads

Preview/Prediction

January 12, 2009


The SEC hasn't been quite the same since Florida won back-to-back championships. The level of competition once the entire starting Gator squad left and Tubby Smith left Kentucky to go coach Minnesota has decreased substantially.

This doesn't mean, though, that games between SEC rivals this season won't be good, especially as they both try to regain national attention.

The Vols (10-4, 1-0) snapped a two-game losing streak on Saturday when they traveled to Georgia for their SEC opener. Earlier in the season, they defeated quality Big East opponents like Georgetown and Marquette, but fell prey to the likes of Gonzaga (twice), Temple, and Kansas.

Kentucky (12-4, 1-0) has had a different sort of season, losing their first two games to Virginia Military and UNC. They had a five-game win streak snapped by a then-ranked Miami (FL) team, and later had a six-game win streak snapped by a three-point shot in the final seconds by a ranked Louisville team. They rebounded from their in-state loss to Louisville by defeating Vanderbilt in their SEC opener.

Both teams are capable of competing in the national spotlight—it's become a question of which team decides to show up.

  Kentucky Tennessee
Record: 12-4 10-4
SEC Record: 1-0 1-0
PF: 79.8 84.3
PA: 64.8 75.1
FG % .505 .455
FGA/Gm 55.7 65.0
FT % .787 .694
3P % .337 .308
3PA/Gm 17.1 22.3
RPG 38.4 43.1
SPG 6.9 7.2
APG 17.9 17.6
TO 18.1 15.0

 

Both teams have played pretty well all season—the Vols are prone to take more shots, which can hurt them because they do not always wait for their best opportunity. Kentucky has a much better winning margin (15 points) compared to Tennessee (nine points). On the other side, though, Tennessee averages almost 20 more points per game than Kentucky allows, so something's gotta give.

Both teams have quality players who have made huge impacts on their programs.


Kentucky Key Players

Jodie Meeks (Junior, Guard)

Meeks is the Wildcat offense. He averages 24.2 points per game, is very accurate from the charity stripe (he is currently 92 for 102), and can hit from beyond the arc with the best of them (.419 on 132 attempts). Meeks has been in foul trouble once this season, so if that were to happen, the Wildcats would surely have huge problems on their hands.

 

Patrick Patterson (Sophomore, Forward)

Patterson is averaging 18.9 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game. Aside from Meeks, he is the only Wildcat averaging double-figure points per game. His stats are up slightly from last season, but he has been a solid player both seasons. Patterson will be looking for his 10th double-double of the season come Tuesday.

 

Tennessee Key Players

Tyler Smith (Junior, Forward)

Smith gained a lot of national attention last season when the Vols upset top-ranked Memphis and took the top spot themselves for a week. This season he is yet to score in single digits (he is averaging 17.7 points per game) and has been passing the ball more (his APG are up from last season). Look for Smith to have a huge impact and extend his streak of having a block in a game to five.

 

Wayne Chism (Junior, Forward)

While not the impact player that Smith is, Chism is a different player with a different impact. His presence is known under the basket more than on the perimeter (he averages 12.4 points and 9.1 rebounds per game). He has had as few as three and as many as 19 rebounds in a game this season.

 

Prediction

Kentucky has looked better recently, but they only have two players averaging double-digit points per game—they happen to also account for more than half the average Kentucky PPG. Tennessee, on the other hand, is a deeper team with four players averaging double-digit points per game.

The Vols are still looking to rebound from their losses to Kansas and Gonzaga, and a win in their SEC home opener would be a solid statement for a team that just slipped out of the Top 25.

Tennessee has been letting teams back in games far too much recently for me to be comfortable in saying this is going to be anything but a close game. Their shot selection has not been great, yet they have somehow managed to stay competitive.

Smith was on crutches going into the Georgia game, and while he did play, I'm not convinced he was as aggressive as he could have been. Kentucky just is not deep enough to overcome a quality Vols team, and aggressive playing on the part of Tennessee is going to be necessary to try to draw fouls from the Wildcats' two key players.

Tennessee wins their SEC home opener with a healthy Smith and covers (-6).

 

This article is featured at CFBPlaceKentucky @ Tennessee

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11 comments Last one added 5 months ago — Leave a Comment

  1. ...

    Key points made. Good article. You only left out the stellar Kentucky defense. Kentucky will cause more problems for Tennessee then most people will think.

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      Kentucky has a great defense. Tennessee already overcame a great defensive team earlier this year, though, in Georgetown, so they proved to me they can handle it.

      I think Kentucky will give the Vols a run for their money, I just think that offensively they rely too much on Meeks and Patterson. It should be a great, close game, though.

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    Good preview again, Ryan. It's been proven multiple times that if you can stop Patterson and Meeks from scoring more than, say, 20 apiece, nobody else from Kentucky can step up enough to offset the difference. One thing about Tennessee is that they play good defense, and they're quick and deep. Vols by 10 in the end, but this one will be close for most of the game.

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      Thanks Jonathan. I think the Vols are going to be able to step up and shut down Meeks and Patterson to a certain extent.

      Nice call on ND/Louisville, btw. If only the Irish knew that they were supposed to play in overtime...

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      ND ran out of gas. They essentially play six players, and Louisville played nine. They didn't have a chance....I'm telling ya, Pitino is a puppet master. Lose in November/December, and turn on the jets from January on.

      It's happened every year since they got blasted in their first year of the Big East, trying to play good ball early in the season like they had to in C-USA.

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      If Tennessee plays good defense then how come they rank last in points allowed (75.1), opponents shooting (43.9). Next to last in three-point defense (32.5). I will say that Tennessee is deeper in the bench. If Stevenson can hold Smith like he did last year, it will be a Kentucky victory. There is no more Chris Lofton anymore.

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      But there is a Scotty Hopson, and after not going to UK, he's out for blood! Should be a good game. :)

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      Jonathan you also thought that Louisville was going to shut down Meeks and Patterson. They are going to get there points. What will hurt Kentucky is that they have no other scorer other then those two. It will take a team effort like last year. You didn't have a comeback with the Tennessee defense. Your best comeback was talking about Hopson.

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  3. ...

    Great close game. Yeah in the first half. Meeks lit up Tennessee. They didn't have a answer for him. I told you that UT had a weak defense.

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