College Football 2012 Top 50: Which Teams Are Locks, Contenders or Pretenders?

Ranking my top 50 for next season based on what I foresee in the preseason magazines (and how I see thing shaking out at the end of the season), I'm throwing out my pretenders, contenders and locks for the 2012 season.

The pretenders are coming from my own expectations on the team based on where I have them ranked, and the same goes for the contenders.

However, my lock is sort of a bonus pick or more so a bold prediction (isn't that what a lock means anyway?). It is bold because it more than likely is not something the normal "expert" is predicting.

I live for predictions, so feel free to throw a few of your own out there.

 

No. 50 Vanderbilt

The Commodores lose a few of their studs up front on the defensive line, but the hope is the depth steps up along with a secondary that continues to impress every season.

Jordan Rodgers better improve if they expect go bowling, though James Franklin will find a way on account he has three stars in the making (Zac Stacy, Jordan Matthews, Chris Boyd). 

Pretender

No. 49 Louisiana-Lafayette

Blaine Gautier at quarterback and Javone Lawson at receiver will be a deadly combo in the Sun Belt next season. Will anybody be able to slow them down?

The conference slate may not have what it takes to knock off the Ragin’ Cajuns, but Florida and Oklahoma State will both cost them any shot of a BCS berth. 

Pretender

No. 48 North Carolina

Larry Fedora has a chance to bring the Heels back to relevancy, but 2012 won’t be the season to see a huge jump.

Florida State, Virginia Tech and Clemson are all better so it may take a few seasons before they have a legitimate chance of winning the conference.

Pretender

No. 47. Ohio

Tyler Tettleton and the Bobcats may run things in the MAC next season, which means a 10-plus win year should be on the horizon in 2012.

That said, this is still the MAC we are talking about and a BCS trip isn’t all that likely or possible.

Pretender

No. 46. Texas A&M

Heading to the big-boy league of the SEC, A&M has lost its last five games against SEC opponents (seven if you count Mizzou) by a combined score of 198-118. That isn’t great, especially given the team hasn't even won the Big 12 in recent memory. The SEC will test the Aggies right away.

Will they even go bowling with LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, Missouri, Mississippi State and SMU on the slate?

Lock (To Miss Postseason)

No. 45 Baylor

Nick Florence must fill in for the Heisman winner and while many are worried, things shouldn’t get all that bad.

The offense returns and has plenty of skill, but the schedule gets tougher with West Virginia and TCU both on the slate.

Pretender

No. 44 Miami

The 'Canes will need some consistency at the quarterback position, and the hope is that the young talent at the offensive skill positions will develop into stars this season.

If not, then even more onus will be put on the defense, and that is never a good thing.

Pretender

No. 43 Mississippi State

No Vick Ballard or Chris Relf, and even a few defensive studs will be gone. The bottom line is that we will learn something right away in early September about the Bulldogs.

Dan Mullen will need them balling with Auburn coming to Starkville because wins will be hard to come by when Alabama, LSU and Arkansas are on the slate toward the end of the season.

Pretender

No. 42 Virginia

Mike London was successful as any coach in the nation arguably during stretches of the regular season, but his Wahoos were given a rude awakening in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Auburn.

It goes to show that as much as you may have improved in one season, nobody is a match for the mighty SEC (more times than not).

However, UVA won’t fall apart next season and it will be back in the postseason. Just do not expect the team to get over the hump for an ACC crown.

Pretender

No. 41 Missouri

Gary Pinkel will have his boys ready, or so they hope. Georgia will be coming to Mizzou and it should be a top-five squad once that game gets underway.

An opening loss could demoralize the program a tad or at least knock it back a bit. The schedule only gets tougher, and as solid as James Franklin may become, he needs a ton of more help around him.

Pretender

No. 40 California

Jeff Tedford desperately needs to return to the Holiday Bowl, except this time he must win it. The Golden Bears came close to knocking off the Longhorns, but that fourth quarter was brutal to watch.

The offensive line was manhandled and Zach Maynard fell apart under pressure. Their defense was solid, but it is not a lock on whether or not they will get better or even remain as good as they were last season.

Pretender

No. 39 SMU

The Mustangs have Garrett Gilbert and many are praying that he shines brightly under June Jones. A few studs return and should be healthy, such as running back Zach Line. The defense has one of the biggest freaks in the country coming off the edge in Margus Hunt.

SMU opens at Baylor, which should be a shootout, but it then hosts both A&M and TCU. I foresee the Mustangs winning at least one of those three, and perhaps even two of them.  

Lock (Double-Digit Wins)

No. 38 Cincinnati

Butch Jones just won 10 games and yet the Bearcats seem to be unknown because they play in the Big East.

A few studs on offense are gone, but they have plenty of depth to make them contenders in the Big East.

Overall, they will likely continue to fall just short of a Big East crown since the ‘Ville and Rutgers are both on the rise.

Pretender

No. 37 Rutgers

Greg Schiano is gone and Kyle Flood is ready to lead the Scarlet Knights into Big East contention, but they won’t be listed as the favorites once the magazines roll around in May.

A few stars depart, but this recent recruiting class will eventually become a big hit.

Pretender

No. 36 Texas Tech

Seth Doege had the game of his life in his upset over the top-ranked Oklahoma Sooners.

He compiled 441 yards and four touchdowns, but he ended the season with just six more compared to six picks.

The defense isn’t going to improve a whole lot, so the offense must stay consistent if the Red Raiders prefer to go bowling.

Pretender

No. 35 Iowa

Kirk Ferentz will find a way to replace his star tackle, running back and wide receiver to remain relevant in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes could surprise a bunch even though the star talent will clearly be lacking on paper.

Pretender

No. 34 Georgia Tech

Tevin Washington and the Jackets go to Blacksburg in the opener, which spells disaster. Virginia Tech will likely knock them off and they may not be able to remain a consistent stay in the top 25.

Pretender

No. 33 BYU

Jake Heaps has since transferred to Kansas, so Riley Nelson is the signal-caller, and thank god he has Cody Hoffman back. The star wide receiver has had six touchdowns in the last two postseason games.

However, BYU has tough road trips to South Bend, Atlanta, Salt Lake City and Boise.

Pretender

No. 32 Tennessee

Tyler Bray has a huge season coming up if he can stay healthy, and he has the receiver to perform like an All-SEC star.

The Volunteers will score a ton of points, and they better since their defense is average at best (at least right now) in terms of the SEC juggernauts.

Lock (To Win Seven)

No. 31 Utah

The Utes will receive hardly any credit heading into next season, but the “Wolfman” is a beast in the backfield.

John White IV went bananas against Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl and he could carry them to a nine- or 10-win season (counting bowl game).

Lock (10 Wins)

No. 30 Penn State

The quarterback position cannot get worse, can it?

The defense may take a small step back, but Bill O’Brien will bring much-needed energy to this program.

PSU could perhaps knock off the Badgers and reach the Big Ten title since they are not expected to do too much, though I am not foreseeing those events occurring.

Pretender

No. 29 Oklahoma State

Mike Gundy will find a way to put up points even without Brandon Weeden or Justin Blackmon. However, the Cowboys won’t be representing the Big 12 in the BCS with new additions of TCU and West Virginia to go along with Texas and Oklahoma.

Pretender

No. 28 North Carolina State

The Pack look to be back and Mike Glennon is the guy that will be leading the way.

A season-opening victory over Tennessee would be huge, though they will probably still come up short against the likes of Clemson and Florida State.

Pretender

No. 27 Louisville

The Cardinals have to be considered the favorites in the Big East with their star quarterback Teddy Bridgewater getting most of his stars back.

Plus, the schedule is not all that daunting so Charlie Strong has to be liking his chances at making a trip to the BCS, but Louisville will certainly be tested along the way.

Contender

No. 26 Washington

Keith Price and his receivers will look fantastic next season mainly because they arguably have the best tight end out there (Austin Seferian-Jenkins).

Just because the defense was abysmal last season does not mean the Huskies have absolutely no shot in the dark to upset one of the big dogs. Price can spin it with the best of them and he can escape the pressure in the pocket.

While, I do not think they are likely to reach the BCS, I wouldn't be shocked to see them win 10 games when the season comes to a conclusion. For that alone, I list them as contenders (LSU, USC and Oregon are brutal games, so it will be intriguing).

Contender

No. 25 Boise State

The Broncos will be a young team, but they will have plenty of time to develop without Kellen Moore or a veteran-led defense.

However, Chris Petersen is one of the finest coaches in the nation for several reasons. The Broncos guy finds ways to reload and put the best talent on the field and he also is never out-coached or unprepared.

Maybe they won’t play in a BCS bowl if they lose in the opener to Sparty, but they look like a lock to win 10 or more games again with underrated offensive skill players such as D.J. Harper.

Contender

No. 24 Virginia Tech

Winning 10 or more games in eight straight seasons is nearly impossible, but Frank Beamer and the boys have done it.

They should do it again though an ACC title may come up short once again with Florida State and Clemson improving so much.

Pretender

No. 23 Florida

I like the Gators' chances of winning the SEC East in a few years because their talent will soon be loaded.

The offense is not quite ready for the prime time so it may take awhile before I will be drinking a ton of blue and orange Kool-Aid.

I am actually expecting a 10-3 type of season in 2012, but that won’t be good enough to win the East with teams like South Carolina and Georgia above them.

Pretender

No. 22 Notre Dame

I have really liked their chances last season for a BCS berth, but the red-zone woes were atrocious and they arguably cost their BCS chances in the opener against South Florida (and Michigan).

The schedule is tougher with both USC and Oklahoma on the slate, as well as Michigan and Michigan State (both top 15 teams).

I could see more wins in 2012, but they will come up just short of that prestigious BCS bid.

Pretender

No. 21 Stanford

The Cardinal possess a ton of talent despite the loss of Andrew Luck, but they will be young at critical positions (QB, OL).

Plus, USC is a title contender and Oregon isn’t far behind. Lastly, don’t forget the Washington Huskies with Keith Price returning.

That could be three losses right there, and that would finally knock off the Cardinal from competing in a BCS bowl.

Pretender

No. 20 TCU

Love me some Gary Patterson with the defense he is always running and his offense looks legit with Casey Pachall and a loaded backfield.

However, the competition is much tougher in the Big 12. Oklahoma, Texas and another newly acquired team will be tough to beat in West Virginia.

Though I am not expecting them to fall on their faces, the Horned Frogs will likely lose two or three games.

Pretender

No. 19 Wisconsin

The Badgers have started to dominate the Big Ten by appearing in consecutive Rose Bowls, but they will need to win a Rose Bowl for me to stop doubting them.

They are almost a mortal lock to play in the Big Ten title again, but teams like Nebraska, Michigan and Michigan State will likely be much improved.

If they go 10-2 and then lose in the Big Ten title (and bowl game), we can’t consider them legit threats to a BCS game, can we?

Pretender

No. 18 Auburn

The Tigers defense will be much better than it was one season ago (81st in total yards allowed) on account they gave up 408 yards per game.

Every starter is back, including one of the finest defensive ends in the nation with Corey Lemonier (nine sacks).

Alabama, LSU and Arkansas are still a slight notch or two above them since that devastating trio will be thinking about running the table.

Pretender

No. 17 Kansas State

Bill Snyder has done a tremendous job with Kansas State and the Wildcats have a ton of their starters coming back, including quarterback Collin Klein.

The Big 12 is vastly improving with West Virginia and TCU coming to play with the big boys, but the Wildcats should have their chances to make plenty of noise, despite it being evident they did not have the athletes against Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl.

Kansas State was smoked by Oklahoma in a prime-time game last season and will get tested by several teams in 2012.

Pretender 

No. 16 Nebraska

Nobody is really expecting the Huskers to represent the Legends Division with Michigan getting a likely top 10 ranking and Sparty not far behind.

However, Rex Burkhead is a stud in the backfield and Taylor Martinez should be improved. This is a risky pick at the moment, but a few fresh faces along with an actual receiving corps will make a huge difference.

Far from a lock to reach Pasadena, Nebraska has an underrated defense to go along with a talented offense.

Contender 

No. 15 Texas

The Longhorns need to take it up a notch on defense if they want to reach the BCS, but I am expecting a loaded backfield to really help offset the inept offense.

Texas was brutal to watch offensively (54th in total yards), but David Ash has the weapons around him to become a successful quarterback.

All of the tough games are at home for Texas (TCU, WV), so I actually like the Longhorns' chances to represent the Big 12 in the BCS.

Contender

No. 14 Ohio State

Urban Meyer and his Buckeyes won’t be able to compete for a Big Ten title or appear in a BCS bowl, but they can still knock off nearly every team on their schedule.

Meyer has averaged nine victories in the first season of a new program (Bowling Green, Utah and Florida). Braxton Miller and the Buckeyes have far too much talent to rank 107th in the nation.

Contender

No. 13 Clemson

It has never proved anything in regards to consistency that it can play with the best of them, but Clemson finally has tasted some success. It has a boatload of its superstar returning and that is critical.

Sammy Watkins and Tajh Boyd in the clutch could be able to lift the Tigers atop the ACC and/or in a BCS bowl. Their athletic defense can flat out scoot and look for a ton of points offensively next season as they will make return trip to the BCS. 

Lock (BCS Bowl)

No. 12 Michigan State

The Spartans' defense alone will give them a shot at winning the Big Ten title. Andrew Maxwell replaces Kirk Cousins and he loses all of his stud receivers, but Le'Veon Bell is a stud in the backfield.

Their season will not come down to whether or not they knock off Boise State, but really if they can knock off Michigan and Nebraska.

I am counting on the big three (MSU, Michigan, Nebraska) to have their seasons come down to the wire in a potential tie-breaking scenario. Sparty has to be considered the true favorites in my books, thanks to having the best defense in the Big Ten.

Contender

No. 11 South Carolina

Can I consider the fifth team in the SEC as contenders?

I think the Gamecocks will be a force to be reckoned with (I have them at No. 11), but at the end of the day I am taking the Dawgs over them.

Throw in LSU, Alabama and Arkansas from just the West alone, and it will be even tougher to play in a BCS bowl in the 2012-2013 season.

Pretender

No. 10 Michigan

I have been called a Michigan homer before and just stated that Big Ten Legends Division will be a three-horse race. I am looking at Ann Arbor due to all of the hype they will likely receive though they truly deserved more of it last season.

However, Michigan has both Alabama and Notre Dame in the non-conference slate. I love what Denard Robinson brings to the table for the Maize and Blue, and Brady Hoke and Greg Mattison were as good of a duo as we saw with the impossible and quick turnaround. However, the schedule is too daunting for me to pick them to play in a BCS bowl.

(Note: This is one of my five locks.)

Lock (To Disappoint Us)

No. 9 Arkansas

The Razorbacks' offense was a ton of fun to watch when they weren’t playing Alabama or LSU. Those two defense obliterated Tyler Wilson at will, but things will change with Knile Davis coming back.

Plus, it helps to get those two teams at home, which might just give them a chance in the SEC West.

Lastly, don’t forget about this defense. It has been getting disrespected by many experts out there and yet the defensive line is loaded as ever and the secondary has some flat-out freaks (Darius Winston, Tevin Mitchel).

Lock (Ten-Plus-Win Season)

No. 8 West Virginia

Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, Ivan McCartney and Stedman Bailey will comprise one of the most electrifying offenses in America next season.

Even though they are headed to the tough and rugged Big 12, West Virginia will be able to hang punch-for-punch with the Sooners and Longhorns (and TCU, Oklahoma State).

Contender

No. 7 Florida State

The Seminoles finally do not have a brutal non-conference slate and it is up to them to run the table to get back in the BCS title mix.

The schedule is far from a cakewalk with games against Miami, NC State, Virginia Tech, Florida and Clemson.

However, the defense is loaded and the receiving corps has elevated its game. Can the offensive line develop a running game with a slew of young and talented backs? If so, they may not be beatable with all of that overwhelming speed and talent that they showed down the stretch of the season.

If not, FSU may once again fall short of another ACC and or BCS title run. Forget that, though, and give me the former as the 'Noles should at least be back in the BCS.

Lock (To Finally Finish In Top Five)

No. 6 Oregon

Bryan Bennett and his ability to orchestrate the offense is vital this season without LaMichael James or Darron Thomas in Eugene.

De’Anthony Thomas and Kenjon Barner rank among the best duos in college football, but this schedule is extremely soft. Outside of going to USC, there are only two road games against bowl competition (Cal, ASU).

While I may not be picking the Ducks to reach the BCS title, they could be smelling roses once again.

Contender

No. 5 Oklahoma

With Landry Jones threading the needle in Norman still, the Boomer Sooners will get their cracks in at another Big 12 title and BCS opportunity.

Contender

No. 4 Georgia

Mark Richt has a vital season coming up for his program's sake, and with Aaron Murray returning with most of his weapons, there might be a chance for them to dream big.

I am looking at the defense and see a loaded group with a ton of speed that can chase you down from sideline to sideline.

Georgia will be more than likely could be favored in every single game before it heads to the SEC title game against a likely top-five West division opponent.

I am predicting an SEC title in March for the Dawgs, but they have excellent chances of representing the SEC in a BCS bowl either way.

Lock (To Play in BCS Bowl)

No. 3 Alabama

The Crimson Tide will be one of those few teams that could beat anybody on the planet (on a  neutral field) with an improved offense heading into the season.

A.J. McCarron has a few horses waiting in the wings and his young receivers showed last season that they have what it takes to get open and come up with the big grab.

Barring a major upset, only LSU and Arkansas (Michigan, Auburn are close) have the ability to give the Tide a run for their money.

Contender

No. 2 USC

We can pretty much set them as locks for favorites in every single ball game. The schedule is really soft for a title contender, though the Trojans may face the Oregon Ducks twice. It is never easy to beat a team twice, but the offensive skill players at USC might be the best in America.

It really comes down to whether or not the defense can come away with a few stops per game. The linebackers are stacked and the secondary can lock you up with its ability to fly all over the place.

Lock (BCS Title Bound)

No. 1 LSU

The Bayou Bengals should come into the season with the best defense on the planet, but will they all stay healthy? They avoided the injury bug in 2011, though it was amazing to see Les Mile work his magic on account they had quite a few distractions.

Will Zach Mettenberger be able to perform at his best when it matters the most?

LSU can shut the naysayers up over its abysmal performance in the BCS title by beating the Tide in the regular season for a third straight season.

It may not be saying much to list them as contenders on account they will be the preseason No. 1 team, but defending the SEC crown and coming off perfection before the title game will not be easy to duplicate.

Contender

Follow Dan Vasta on Twitter.