Updating the Milwaukee Brewers' Win Projections

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Updating the Milwaukee Brewers' Win Projections

Balking Traditionalism

About a month ago, when I first started writing here, I made a series of posts projecting how the Brewers players stack up according to Wins Above Replacement. I strongly recommend that you take a look at these posts again to get a handle on my methods, although I will glaze over them again so I can fit this all in one post.

Here’s the original series: Hitters, Pitchers.

First, let’s look at hitters. The run values are all based on wOBA. For more on how that works, read the link.

PLAYER POS mPA wOBA Outs RAA WAA WAR DefRAA/150 PosAdj/700 DefRAA PosAdj DefWAA TotalWAR Value (M$) Salary
Rivera ,Mike C 150 0.33 101 0 0 0.43 0 12.5 0 2.68 0.27 0.7 3.13 0.45
Kendall, Jason C 550 0.3 388 -16.26 -1.63 -0.05 10 12.5 8.46 9.82 1.83 1.77 7.98 4.6
Nelson ,Brad 1B 50 0.34 33 0.39 0.04 0.18 -8 -12.5 -0.62 -0.89 -0.15 0.03 0.14 0.4
Fielder, Prince 1B 650 0.38 402 29.96 3 4.85 -8 -12.5 -8 -11.61 -1.96 2.89 13.01 9
Weeks, Rickie 2B 600 0.34 394 7.3 0.73 2.44 -9 2.5 -8.31 2.14 -0.62 1.83 8.23 2.3
Hall, Bill 3B 500 0.33 338 -1.74 -0.17 1.25 -1 2.5 -0.77 1.79 0.1 1.36 6.1 4.93
Lamb, Mike 3B 200 0.32 136 -1.74 -0.17 0.4 -12 2.5 -3.69 0.71 -0.3 0.1 0.45 0.4
Hardy, J.J. SS 625 0.34 410 8.15 0.82 2.6 1 7.5 0.96 6.7 0.77 3.37 15.15 4.5
Braun, Ryan LF 625 0.38 385 29.89 2.99 4.77 2 -7.5 1.92 -6.7 -0.48 4.3 19.34 3.05
Cameron, Mike CF 575 0.33 384 2 0.2 1.84 3 2.5 2.65 2.05 0.47 2.31 10.41 10
Hart, Corey RF 600 0.35 393 8.35 0.83 2.55 2 -7.5 1.85 -6.43 -0.46 2.09 9.41 2.4
Gwynn, Tony OF 150 0.31 104 -3 -0.3 0.13 -6 -2.5 -1.38 -0.54 -0.19 -0.06 -0.29 0.4
Duffy, Chris OF 150 0.31 104 -3 -0.3 0.13 9 -2.5 2.08 -0.54 0.15 0.28 1.27 0.4
Replacement C 7 0.3 5 -0.2 -0.02 0 -11.61 12.5 -0.13 0.13 0 0 0 0
Replacement 1B 8 0.3 6 -0.23 -0.02 0 11.61 -12.5 0.14 -0.14 0 0 0 0
Replacement 2B 100 0.3 70 -2.87 -0.29 0 -2.32 2.5 -0.36 0.36 0 0 0 0
Replacement 3B 7 0.3 5 -0.2 -0.02 0 -2.32 2.5 -0.03 0.03 0 0 0 0
Replacement SS 75 0.3 53 -2.15 -0.22 0 -6.96 7.5 -0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0
Replacement LF 7 0.3 5 -0.2 -0.02 0 6.96 -7.5 0.08 -0.08 0 0 0 0
Replacement CF 7 0.3 5 -0.2 -0.02 0 -2.32 2.5 -0.03 0.03 0 0 0 0
Replacement RF 8 0.3 6 -0.23 -0.02 0 6.96 -7.5 0.09 -0.09 0 0 0 0
Totals - 5849 - 3725 60.3 6.03 21.53     -5.88 0.23 -0.56 20.97 94.34 42.83

 

The additions here from last time are Duffy and Lamb, but you’ll notice that a few things have changed a bit. 

For one, I’ve changed the runs/win from 10.5 to 10. I was reading some things by some people that are more educated for me and it turns out that 10 is the correct number here (based on pythagorean records).

I’ve also adjusted plate appearances to what I feel are more realistic ideas. Either way, here we have 21 wins above replacement. Setting a replacement N.L. team at 51 wins (this is based on empirical observation of actual replacement players), we have 72 wins with just the position players.

Now, the pitchers. I’ve made more of a change with the pitchers, changing to finding Wins Above Replacement using something called a “Dynamic Runs Estimator.”

The basic principle behind this is that saving runs becomes less important as the runs pile on. This makes intuitive sense—the difference between saving the first run is much more important than saving the 8th run in a game.  

Another way of looking at this is that the difference between a 2.00 ERA pitcher and a 3.00 ERA pitcher is much larger than the difference between a 5.00 ERA pitcher and a 6.00 ERA pitcher. If anybody is interested, I can post the formula in the comments later. Here are the pitchers:

Name IP ERA HR K BB FIP Win% Leverage WAR Value Actual Salary
Gallardo, Yovani 160 3.65 14.18 141.77 56.71 3.67 0.58 1 3.67 16.5 0.45
Capuano, Chris 160 4.5 18.23 121.52 48.61 4.19 0.52 1 2.6 11.71 0.4
Parra, Manny 160 4.44 16.12 139.28 67.91 4.07 0.53 1 3 13.5 0.5
Bush, Dave 169 4.31 23 118 45 4.4 0.49 1 2.32 10.44 4
Suppan, Jeff 169 4.85 21 98 63 4.8 0.45 1 0.42 1.88 12.5
Replacement Starter 45.67 5.7 - - - 5.7 0.37 1 0    
STARTERS TOTAL 863.67          
1 12.01 54.03 17.85
             


   
Hoffman, Trevor 53 3.74 6 43 17 4.04 0.53 1.8 0.78 3.49 6
Villanueva, Carlos 96 4.03 13 82 34 4.34 0.5 1.1 0.47 2.11 0.5
McClung, Seth 89 4.35 9 70 44 4.45 0.49 1.1 0.31 1.38 1.2
Swindle, RJ 49 2.79 4 45 8 2.94 0.67 1.1 1.24 5.58 0.4
Stetter, Mitch 38 4.03 4 33 18 4.28 0.51 0.85 0.17 0.75 0.4
Julio, Jorge 46 4.4 5 44 22 4.16 0.52 0.85 0.26 1.17 0.95
DiFelice, Mike 35 4.37 5 28 12 4.52 0.48 0.75 0.06 0.27 0.4
Dillard, Tim 32 4.22 4 23 12 4.54 0.48 0.75 0.05 0.23 0.4
Coffey, Todd 43 4.81 6 33 16 4.63 0.47 0.7 0.03 0.14 0.4
Riske, David 53 4.25 7 39 23 4.78 0.45 0.6 -0.02 -0.09 4.25
Replacement Reliever 347.33 4.72 - - - 4.72 0.46
0 0  
RELIEVERS TOTAL 594.33          
1 3.34 15.03 14.9
             


   
PITCHERS TOTAL 1458






15.35 69.07 32.75

 

The “win%” that you see here is exactly what it sounds like—it’s what the team’s winning percentage would be with a league average offense and that pitcher pitching every inning of every game.

A replacement level SP has a .370 win% and a replacement level RP has a .460 win%. Here we see that our pitchers are worth 15.35 wins. So this means with a replacement level offense, the Brewers would win about 66 games. Just think, in 2004, our whole team was only worth 16 wins above replacement.

Now we can get to the interesting stuff. Our total wins above replacement comes out to 35.32.  So with our baseline set at 51 wins, we are expected to win 86.32 games, for a winning percentage of .538.  

I don’t expect that these projections are spot on - they can’t be, we’re not going to some how win .32 of a game along the line - so we can use a tool called a binomial distribution to see the probabilities of winning certain amounts of games.  Here I have graphed the probabilities of winning at least a certain amount of games (the red lines represent 75% and 25% chances).

Brewer Win Probabilities

Brewer Win Probabilities

I’ll keep updating this as the offseason goes, so keep your eyes open!

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