2012 NFL Free Agents: Outlining How the Patriots Could Acquire Mario Williams

We can throw around predictions and speculation all day long and it won't achieve a thing.

The so-called professional mock drafters are just paid talking heads. I laugh in the face of someone who thinks they can accurately predict the actual player the New England Patriots will select and the slot that they'll take him at. 

Free agency is a much easier realm to consider when making predictions. The players being bid on have well-documented qualities making for sounder investments—at least that's the hope. The Patriots don't often take big swings, and when they do there have been some major missteps. 

Adalius Thomas is easy to point to when making that case. He signed a five-year, $35 million contract in 2007, with $20 million in guarantees.

The problem was that Thomas was peaking when he arrived in New England. Add in his negative attitude and refusal to eat the humble pie towards the end of his stay and the situation had all the makings for an awful ending. Thomas was released in April 2010 following the draft. 

Many openly criticized the move and largely ignored another near-investment, one much bigger than the $35 million contract given to Thomas. 

In March of 2010 the Patriots had themselves a busy day, as Sean Crowe of the Examiner explains. The signing of Vince Wilfork, a record-setting deal, was announced but New England had its eyes on another big-time player.

According to Crowe, "The Patriots made an aggressive offer to Julius Peppers' agent, but the Chicago Bears showed up at his house at 12:01am last night with a contract worth more money than any contract given to a defensive player. Ever."

That contract the Patriots offered to Peppers was reportedly "competitive" and rumored by some to be close to $10-12 million annually for four to six years. That's a total investment of up to $72 million, which is an offer that directly counters the notion this franchise won't make big acquisitions and/or investments.

Chicago blew Peppers away with a six-year deal worth more than $90 million with $42 million in guarantees. Two years later and another first-round defensive end is hitting free agency and he's three years younger. 

Mario Williams has 53 sacks through 82 starts. Julius Peppers had 55 through 82 games and is now up to 100 exactly.  

In recent comments Williams has alluded to his interest in testing the market if the situation calls for it. A vague set of conditions that are nearly certain to occur, he's going to want to know his value. 

However, when asked what he thought about becoming the highest paid defensive player in the league, Williams hinted at different priorities. 

"

I’m not worried about that. It’s really not that big of a deal to me. I was the first pick (in 2006), and I’ve already had everything I really wanted, so my biggest thing is to be in a good position, a good scheme, a good system and continuing my career. Hopefully, it works out.

It’s always important to be in a position to be successful. That comes with teammates around you, coaching, having that winning attitude. You want to (play) where you can thrive no matter where you are.

"

Now it simply becomes a question of whether the cap-strapped Houston Texans can afford the free agent. It'll take a long-term deal to keep him because the team can't afford the cap charge it would take to place the franchise tag on him.

“I love it here,” Williams said. “We’ve got everything we need here. The team is right where it needs to be. The pieces fit, but it’s part of business. Whatever happens happens.”

I bet he'd enjoy the opportunity to be the closer on the defensive side of the ball that Tom Brady has so desperately needed since 2004. The Patriots have the ability and tendency to pony up and pay when it counts most—Tom Brady, Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Logan Mankins. 

Now it's time to see what their scouting report says on Williams and whether he'd be worth a serious run. 

Interested in reading more by this featured columnist? Check out more of Aaron Dodge's work on Bleacher Report.

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