I've got nothing against Brad Hawpe, I promise. He's never killed my dog or stole my parking spot. I'm sure if we met, he'd be a really nice guy. He had the Rockies' third highest VORP last season, and now that Matt Holiday is gone, he's even more important to their long term plans.
But team USA's starting right fielder? I'd rather not, thanks.
Nothing is set in stone, as Hawpe is still contemplating US manager Davy Johnson's offer, but if Hawpe accepts the offer, he will likely be the starter.
Hawpe is a good enough hitter, .283/.381/.879, with a higher average on the road (lest his numbers seem inflated by Coors Field), but two things make him a terrible option for team USA given the players who have already committed.
First, Hawpe is a strike out machine. His 134 Ks was the third highest among right fielders in either league. He does draw a lot of walks to offset that; a .381 OBP is nothing to sniff at after all, but given the fact that he'll be hitting behind guys like Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, and Brian McCann, all of whom are near the same mark, his high OBP isn't as useful as it would be in a lineup of low OBP, high power hitters.
Hawpe needs to be making productive outs in this type of lineup, sacrifice flies, groundballs to the right side of the infield with a runner on second and less than two out, etc. This isn't to say Hawpe can't be that type of player, but he's certainly closer to Adam Dunn than Joe Mauer. If he was the "true outcomes" player that Dunn is, I might see more sense in the move, but 25 home runs doesn't exactly merit the Masher tag.
Second, and more importantly, Hawpe is a mess in the field. His defense is well below average by any metric and by some of the more reliable ones (UZR and FRAA) he's a substantial risk in right field.
Grady Sizemore, who will start in center, is a very solid defender, which makes this a bit less of an issue. However, with teams like Japan and Venezuela who like to run and play station-to-station baseball, a right fielder with a cannon arm might make runners at second base think twice before they tried to tag up on a shallow flyball to right. That's a play that is solely the right fielder's to make, and Sizemore's ability is neutralized.
I don't blame Johnson for putting out feelers here, as I've mentioned before, right field is one of the weakest positions for American players. Nick Markakis was far and away their best option, and he was Johnson's first choice. However, Ryan Ludwick and Andre Ethier are both better in the field and likely to be better at the plate.
If Hawpe chooses to go, he'll be a fine player and a good guy to have on the team, but Team USA may well be better off if he declines.
6 comments Last one added 5 months ago — Leave a Comment
David Martin 6 months ago
Clearly you have not seen Brad Hawpe throw. He has an absolute cannon for an arm. People in the N.L. West know this and have quit running on him. His arm is top shelf
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Tom S 6 months ago
David is absolutely right; Hawpe's arm isn't as accurate as it used to be, but it's one of the strongest in the league. Also, if you're so anti-strikeout, why are you recommending Ludwick over Hawpe? He doesn't have nearly the same track record of production and struck out more last year.
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Dan Wade 6 months ago
I'll concede I haven't seen much of Hawpe, but the data on him seems mixed at best. Some authors, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN among them, agree with you (and David as well) that his arm is solid, perhaps even one of the better ones in the game.
However, when The Hardball Times did a statistical calculation of Outfield Arms, Hawpe was in the bottom 10 in the league. Both sets of data were from 2007, and Hawpe is a youngish player, so I'm willing to believe he made an improvement. However, it doesn't make up for his absolutely abysmal FRAA and UZR.
As to Ludwick and his proclivity for strike outs. Its really a matter of acceptable loss. If I'm doomed to a right fielder who is a look for 100+ strike outs, I want to get a little more production than Hawpe is going to give. They struck out at nearly identical rates, 27%, and while Hawpe did outwalk Ludwick, Ludwick outproduced Hawpe in nearly every category. BA, RBI, HR, OPS, SLG, etc.
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Tom S 5 months ago
Yes, Ludwick did do all that... in 2008. Meanwhile, the rest of his career is rates anywhere from mediocre to bad. Hawpe has been producing at a high level since 2006. He's a much less risky proposition. And if the only way you're going to criticize his hitting is by mentioning the Ks, you should explain in the article why Ludwick would be better. Personally, I think Either is the best choices of the 3. Also, as for Hawpe's arm, any poor metrics (as much as fielding metrics can be trusted) are a result of inaccuracy, not lack of strength.
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nic morgan 5 months ago
Dan... your a moron... Brad was hurt for part of 08 and that hurt his power production even tho 25 bombs is nothing to scoff at... he hit 290 the last 2 years and his arm is one of the best in the game... just check his outfield assist from the last two years. i guarentee Brad will hit 330 for usa and your gunna eat this article
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RedSox Maniac 5 months ago
I have to also disagree. Hawpe has been hitting 5th or 6th behind Helton, Atkins, Holliday, and even sometimes papa-tulowitz and Ianetta.
The fact that he has been able to produce with those RBI hungry players in front of him is absolutely astounding. And even last year was great, since he had missed 24 games, and was atrocious the games before they had to shelve him early in the season.
The one thing I have a problem with is too many people have become SABR heads instead looking at intra-season player trends. That Hawpe has an inaccurate arm, I give him some props since he is fielding a lot of balls pretty far from any of the bases ( That outfield is ridiculously huge ).
Looking at specific analysis without looking at the player's game or at least even environmental or player trends is blindly taking too much into a constant production expectation. If ever you write something with supplemental data, make sure you see the kid swing a bat.
I don't want to assume, but fantasy baseball shouldn't enter the realm of the USA selection. Markakis, on the other hand, would be a better pick by your standards. Ludwick... maybe. Both pure products of Moneyball scouting.
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