NL Fantasy Surprises

This week, as promised, we will examine players who had a surprisingly great season in 2008, and what the chances are for repeat performances in 2009. Players in this category are important to study because they will go early in draft leagues, and command a fairly high price in auction leagues. For keeper leagues, should you “sell high,” or count on that player(s) to be a cornerstone for next season and beyond? Here is my analysis on several National League players that resemble the previous remarks:

Ryan Dempster, Cubs—Dempster was outstanding in his return to the starting rotation, winning 17 games and sporting an ERA of 2.96. A closer look at the numbers shows that, while Dempster had an excellent season, he isn't too likely to repeat it. Out of 20 starts at home, Dempster came away with a win 14 times! He pitched very well in the Friendly Confines, with an ERA of just 2.99, but it takes a little luck and a lot of run support to score 14 wins in 20 outings. Away from Chicago, Dempster won 3 times in 13 starts. He also gave up just 6 homers in 129 innings at home, versus 8 in 77 innings away from the Windy City. This tells me that the wind was blowing in more often than not when Dempster was on the mound in Chicago. Unless he has some way to control the breeze that flows, I suspect his numbers will suffer a bit in 2009. If you still aren't convinced, consider his career ERA: 4.55. I think 12-14 wins and an ERA just below 4.00 is what should be expected from Dempster next summer.

Aaron Cook, Rockies—One thing that we always have to consider about players that enjoy a breakout season is that maybe they have simply figured out how to pitch/hit. Aaron Cook was 17-22 combined 2006 and 2007, and then went 16-9 in 2008 with a 3.96 ERA in Colorado. He managed to do that despite giving up 236 hits in 211 innings pitched. How? He allowed just 48 walks and 13 home runs. Cook knows that the way to achieve success at Coors is to keep the ball down and don't give away free bases. I expect similar numbers to last season: 14-16 wins, and an ERA of 4.00.

Carlos Delgado, Mets—Delgado's 2007 season, when he hit .258 with 24 home runs and 87 RBIs, indicated to many that the then 35-year-old was beginning to decline. Then, in 2008, he rebounded, hitting .271, with 38 home runs and 115 RBI, which are eerily similar to his 2006 line of .265, 38, 114. Delgado had two extended hot streaks that made his season, hitting .357 in July and .340 in September. He also hit 17 of his home runs in those months, but his batting average for the rest of the season was well below .250. I think age is slowly beginning to take a toll on this streaky slugger, and I am projecting a line of .260, 26-28, 75-80 for '09. Still solid numbers, but don't overpay based on Delgado's 2008.

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