Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: 5 Reasons This Fight Will Happen (and 5 It Won't)

Manny Pacquiao after his third close call against Juan Manuel Marquez
Ethan Miller/Getty Images

This fight is like a bad relationship for boxing fans.

It's on-again off-again negotiations are like those first few dates you go on with an ex. We have so much hope when we hear that Bob Arum is talking to Richard Schaefer, or Michael Koncz to Leonard Ellerbe or (dare we believe it?) Floyd Mayweather to Manny Pacquiao.

Inevitably, these negotiations stall out over some issue. (Blood testing? Temporary stadiums? Anyone? Anyone?) The talks inevitably end in acrimony and unspoken vows to never go through that again. 

Well, guess what?

Both sides will go through this charade again at some point in the future, and I'm putting my money on this year. Only this time it won't be a charade. The negotiations will be real, not demands, and these guys are gonna get it on before next year. 

History

Mayweather apparently having fun countering Victor Ortiz off the ropes
Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Why history says it will happen

Sugar Ray Leonard-Marvelous Marvin Hagler. Muhammad Ali-Joe Frazier. Mike Tyson-Evander Holyfield.

The biggest fights of an era happen.

Despite all road blocks and obstacles, these fights get made. Ali was banished from the sport. It looked as though he'd likely never fight again. Leonard had been "retired" twice and overcame a detached retina when he came back to fight Hagler.

Tyson was sent to prison the same year that a fight with Holyfield was being discussed, and the bout was a mismatch on paper when they finally met in 1996. Mayweather and Pacquiao will overcome their apparent obstacles as well.

 

Why history says it won't

Jack Dempsey-Harry Wills. Leonard-Aaron Pryor. Lennox Lewis-Riddick Bowe.

Dempsey and Wills had a signed contract and never fought. Pryor chased Leonard literally from the time they were amateurs. Bowe threw his World Boxing Council belt away rather than face Lewis. These men weren't wimps.

I won't believe they were scared of each other, I respect fighters too much. Yet these matches will always be fantasy. Sometimes it's a manager (Dempsey), sometimes it's a bad risk/reward ratio (Pryor) and sometimes it's history (See 1988 Olympics), but there are times these fights don't get made.

Legacy

Manny Pacquiao beating Oscar De la Hoya in 2008
Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Why legacy says it will happen

After years of proclaiming himself the greatest fighter of all time based on the goose egg at the end of his record, Mayweather has suddenly stepped up his level of competition. No one's mistaking Victor Ortiz or Miguel Cotto for Sugar Ray Robinson, but there is an interesting pattern here.

After years of fighting smaller, older or significantly less talented boxers, Mayweather seemed to simply wake up and decide to start caring about his legacy. Starting with the Shane Mosley fight in '10, he really seems to want to challenge himself, even going so far as to call Pacquiao personally (via ESPN).

It's true, he's probably the worst negotiator in the sport, but there are signs for encouragement.

 

Why legacy says it won't happen

 

At the same time that Mayweather seemed to start to care more about his legacy, Pacquiao seemed to start to care less about his.

Maybe some of that blame is Bob Arum's, but as Sergio Martinez pointed out a few weeks ago, if you're a fighter and you want a fight, you get it, promoter be damned (via ESPN). No one's saying that Pacquiao's been fighting stiffs (or at least they shouldn't be saying such), but what happened to the gauntlet that Pac-man ran from 2003-2009?

It should also be noted that Pacquiao tends to get more credit for wins over common opponents than Mayweather, probably partly because he's perceived as being smaller, and he's been an underdog more than once.

Money

Floyd Mayweather after his knockout of Victor Ortiz
Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Why money says it will happen

$50 million. That's the widely speculated windfall each fighter could make if they choose to fight each other, according to Grantland. And as we all know, if there's one thing that "Money" Mayweather loves it's, well, money.

He loves burning it, he loves betting it and he loves spending it. With so many dollars on the table, these two are bound to get together.

 

Why money says it won't happen

Pacquiao and Mayweather have had this much money on the table since 2009. That's three years. They haven't signed any contracts in the past, so why would they any time soon?

Bob Arum

Bob Arum at a press conference for the Pacquiao-Mayweather fight
Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Why Bob Arum will make it happen

Arum has been in this game a long time.

The man is 80 years old, and has been promoting fights since 1965. He is possibly the most powerful promoter in the sport.

No one in any line of work gets to his position by being a dummy, and only a dummy would keep this fight from happening, especially with Pacquiao's talk of retirement over the last few years, via BadLeftHook.com

Sure, you don't want to kill the golden goose, but what if the poultry is about to quit on you?

 

Why Bob Arum will keep it from happening

Because he's been in the boxing business for a long time and has a lot of enemies, including Floyd Mayweather and Golden Boy Promotions (with whom Mayweather has worked for the past few fights) founder Oscar De la Hoya.

In fact, as recently as last October, Arum said that the fight would never take place via ESPN. Is it gamesmanship on his part? Sure. Does that feel reassuring to boxing fans? Nope.

Fans

Pancquiao fans at the Pacquiao-Marquez weigh in
Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Why the fans will make it happen

Because we're tired, weary and worn out.

It's been close to three years now that we've been talking about this fight, and we're fed up. There will come a time when we don't care who else these guys fight if they're not fighting each other.

Frankly, promoters are selling Pacquiao and Mayweather bouts with the carrot of a future matchup between the two. Even HBO is getting tired of waiting, saying that if this fight doesn't happen this year or early next, it will never happen (via ESPN).

 

Why the fans won't make it happen

Because these guys are stars. They could probably sell a fight between themselves and a heavy bag. While American fans may be tired of waiting, international fans, especially Pacquiao's, don't seem to care whether they fight each other.  

Verdict

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

As stated at the beginning of this feature, this fight will get made.

While we as boxing fans would be wise not to believe it until we see it, it's simply unlikely that the grandstanding and gamesmanship will last past this year. Without all that nonsense, Top Rank, Golden Boy, Mayweather and Pacquiao will find themselves sitting down and making this fight before 2013.