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Projected 2012 Stats:
200 IP, 17-7, 3.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 205 K, 62 BB
People doubt Michael Pineda because he came from huge Safeco Field and a weak AL West. Now he is in a small Yankee Stadium and a strong AL East, but he strikes people out at will and flashed his potential with a 3.03 ERA and 9.0 K/9 in 113 innings before the All-Star break in 2011.
But he also has a high fly-ball and home run rate, and posted a 5.12 ERA in 58 innings after the All-Star Break. Did he get tired? Did hitters figure his two-pitch stuff out? I don't think so.
Not only did his K/9 and BB/9 stay constant throughout the whole season, his ground-ball rate rose from 31.3 percent from March to June to 45.3 from September to October.
Here is a small excerpt from one of my earlier articles on Pineda that sums up how I feel about him, using advanced statistics.
If you look you can see that he was extremely unlucky on the road because his BABIP is .066 higher away from Safeco. He also for some reason has a 10.5 percent HR/FB at home and a lower 7.8 percent HR/FB on the road even though Safeco Field is supposed to be huge and turn home runs into routine fly balls. He also only stranded 64.4 percent of runners on the road in 2011 even though the league average is 75 percent.
Pineda was a very unlucky pitcher on the road in 2011.
Now, let's look at his FIP. His FIP on the road is 3.26 but his FIP at home is 3.62. Neither of those are bad at all and he is actually better on the road away from Safeco Field.
Pineda actually improved as the season went on, despite what his sudden spike in ERA will tell you. His ground-ball rate was from 31.3 percent from March to June and then from September to October it was 45.3 percent. That is a huge improvement. His strikeout and walk rates also remained fairly constant throughout the year.
After the All-Star break he had a 5.14 ERA, right? Sounds awful. He also had a 3.22 xFIP during that time period, which is actually pretty good.
Michael Pineda has serious talent. If he can work on his changeup and have better luck, the move to New York will not hurt him as much as you would think.