Let's be honest, Rays fans. You need a historical collapse in Boston to make the playoffs. Your pitching is as good as any in baseball, if James Shields can reproduce his one great season and if Matt Moore (22) and Jeremy Hellickson (24) can both give you 30 starts of consistency.
But lets look at your lineup. "What about Evan Longoria?" you say. He's one of the most talented hitters in the game... and batted .244 last year. "We added Carlos Pena back." you say. He's a safe bet for 30 HR... 150+ strikeouts and a sub .230 average.
"Desmond Jennings is the next Carl Crawford" you say. His power/speed combo suggests that... and his .259 average and 59 Ks in 63 games last year question it. "BJ Upton is one of how many guys who can go 20/40?" you say. He's done both... but never in the same season. Upton seasons over .275? One. Under .250? Three.
I'm not buying the offense. Its not as bad as the anemic Mariners or Giants who boast impressive pitching, but they dont benefit from those weak divisions. They might just need 95 wins just for the wild card.