2012 Fantasy Draft: 7 Free Agents That Could Be Fantasy Studs Next Year

This offseason, a quality crop of NFL talent will be heading to the free agent market, but the top tier won’t get far.

Drew Brees, Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Wes Welker and Marshawn Lynch are all known quantities in the fantasy game with their respective teams and systems. All of them are likely to re-sign or be given the franchise tag.

And everyone knows already, those guys are fantasy studs.

There is still plenty of talent left at the skill positions, but many of them come with a question mark. They might be unproven, aging or injury-prone.

These are the best of that group—players who have a good chance of changing teams or roles and turning in their first seasons as fantasy studs.

Dwayne Bowe, WR

As I mentioned in my recent article about the top 15 WRs for next year, Bowe’s TD receptions dropped to five after a 2010 season in which he caught 15.

QB Matt Cassel going down in Week 9 seemed to be the cause for the drop-off. Bowe had four of his five receiving TDs at that point and didn’t add the last TD until Week 16 with Kyle Orton at QB.

Still, Bowe is a no-doubt-about-it No. 1 receiver and in the prime of his career. I expect the TD numbers to pick back up a bit and approach double digits if the Chiefs can stick with one QB for a larger part of the season.

As the AFC West is a wide-open division at this point, I don’t see the Chiefs letting Bowe go, but a rebound season is likely and Bowe will be a fantasy stud once again. 

Matt Flynn, QB

There’s not much to go on in evaluating Flynn. There’s one spectacular performance in Week 17 that brought about a lot of hype, and the rest is speculation. 

Lucky for Flynn, this is a QB-thin league. At least one team will give Flynn a shot at becoming their starting QB.

In Week 17 against the Lions, Flynn threw for 480 yards and six TDs, both franchise records for the Packers.

In 2010, Matt Flynn had a start against New England and went for 251 yards with three TDs in a loss. Flynn also threw a pick-six in the game and lost a fumble.

As Flynn had an INT and fumble in Week 17 this season as well, ball security could be an issue.

Still, Flynn will garner interest from multiple teams. The Miami Dolphins have been rumored as front-runners for Flynn with former Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin recently named the team’s head coach.

Flynn should have a breakout year and be a top-10 fantasy QB if he is placed in right situation. Miami could be the place.

Jermichael Finley, TE

This 24-year-old TE had a breakout year in which he was finally able to play in all 16 team games for the Packers.

He was the fifth highest-scoring fantasy TE in 2011, so you could argue that he was already a fantasy stud.

However, in 2011, it was Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and then everybody else.

In ESPN standard scoring, 46 points separated Gronkowski from Graham, and 60 points separated Graham from the rest of the TE field.

Gronkowski should fall back to the field a bit, but I suspect a few guys to close the gap coming up as well, creating a top tier of five or six.

Finley belongs in that top tier. 

If he stays with Green Bay, he will continue to contend with Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and the rest of the Packers receivers for targets. In that scenario, 1,000 yards and double-digit TDs does not seem likely.

If he decides to leave, and join an offense where he is the No. 1 or No. 2 option, then those big numbers that would put him in the top tier of TEs are easily attainable.

An ideal situation might be Miami, where he could join former offensive coordinator Joe Philbin and perhaps QB Matt Flynn.

Fred Davis, TE

Davis put up career best numbers despite missing the season’s final four games due to a suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. He finished with 59 catches for 796 yards and three TDs.

Projected out to 16 games, he would have had 79 catches for 1,059 yards and four TDs.

Those numbers would have put him third in yards and tied for third in catches among TEs.

The TD number is low, but Davis didn’t have Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Tom Brady throwing to him in the red zone. A step up in QB play would have brought his TD total to a respectable seven or eight.

The suspension is a red flag, but Davis could be the breakout fantasy stud at TE next year if he stays out of trouble.

DeSean Jackson, WR

There are several knocks on Jackson. He’s been called a showboat and a headcase. Detractors also point to his contributions being tied too strongly to big plays.

Jackson is also coming off of the worst season of his career.

But Jackson still has the talent to be a fantasy stud.

And let’s not forget that Jackson can net you points in the return game too.

If Jackson remains in Philadelphia, he’s got the right QB in Michael Vick to help him get back to his big play ways. Of course, Vick will need to stay healthy.

Getting a contract he can live with might be a problem though. There is a real possibility he won’t sign for less than he thinks he’s worth (which will be above market value).

Before you place him on your draft board, make sure he’s locked in with a team. A one-year deal could be huge motivation for Jackson to go out and get the payday he wants. That would be an ideal situation for his fantasy owners.

Jackson was the ninth WR taken on average in 2011 drafts. He’ll drop further in 2012 and should end up giving you more value for the pick than in years past.

Michael Bush, RB

Bush has been one of the top RB2s in the league over the last few seasons as he has been the backup for oft-injured star RB Darren McFadden.

Because of McFadden’s history, the Raiders will likely try to retain Bush, perhaps even using their franchise tag on him if they can’t agree to a multi-year deal.

Even if McFadden is healthy all year (which is doubtful), Bush will put up lead back numbers. The Raiders would be smart to split carries between the two backs, keeping defenses off-balance with Bush’s punishing style and McFadden’s cutback game.

Bush is a goal-line hog as well, with the edge going to McFadden only on an up-and-over play, his specialty. 

Bush was, on average, the 40th back taken in last year’s fantasy drafts. He won’t fall that far this year, but he can give you top-10 potential and you could probably nab him as late as the 20th back.

If Bush does end up with a new team, he could be the lead back from the start of the season. In that case, his first 1,000-yard season would be a near-guarantee.

Marques Colston, WR

Colston is likely to stay with the Saints, but it could be the year he takes the step from Saints No. 1 receiver to top-five fantasy receiver.

At this point in his career, Colston has been the model of consistency. Other than 2008, when Colston only played in 11 games, he has netted at least 70 catches and over 1,000 yards in every season he’s played.

However, he’s never had more than 1,202 yards.

It’s hard to imagine Colston leaving the Saints, but if he goes to a less-balanced offensive attack, he could have a career year. Even with the Saints, you have to think with Jimmy Graham's breakout season, defensive coordinators have shifted their focus from Colston.

Drew Brees is certainly responsible for some of Colston’s consistency and success, but he has the talent to be a fantasy stud elsewhere as well.