Can Nationals Wait For Farm System To Produce?

After several months of both hope and speculation, Mark Teixeira proved once again that above all else, free agents follow the money.

Milton Bradley was the Washington Nationals' next target, but Chico Harlan, the Nationals' beat writer is now reporting is it just a matter of time before the volatile outfielder signs with the Chicago Cubs.

Next on the Nationals' radar are second baseman Orlando Hudson and slugger Adam Dunn.

Do you want to make a wager as to the Nationals' chances of landing either of them?

Me neither.

So let's assume that Washington doesn't sign any free agents of consequence, and no sluggers or stud pitchers join the team via a blockbuster trade. That leaves (once again) just the farm system to fill the many holes on the major league roster.

Well, they aren't holes exactly. They are more like giant fractures in the sports space-time continuum which lead to a parallel universe where the Nationals never win.

But I digress.

Here are the most likely prospect(s) who might make a difference at the major league level in the next few years, or the current major leaguer whose job appears safe, at least for the moment.

The stats for the minor league players are their career averages based on 550 at-bats (the typical major league number based on playing a full season). The major league stats are based on what the player either did or would have done had they not been injured.

Scouting report statistics are shown as percentages, and were compiled and published by thebaseballcube.com. Look at the numbers like test scores; 30% isn't very good while a 95% is near the top of the class.

1B: Chris Marrero (.270-23-96, .805 OPS, 118 K's)

The team's current first basemen—Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young—won't return in 2010, though I question whether they will even start the season in Washington next year. Other than Marrero, the rest of the team's minor league first basemen are never going to see a major league stadium unless they buy a ticket.

Marrero was drafted out of high school in the first round in 2006. He has played well at every level, and after a slow start at class 'A+' Potomac, he began to hit the ball with authority before a ankle injury ended his season at the all-star break.

There is no question that he'll hit at the major league level. He's likely to be a .275-30-90 type of batter. His scouting report gives him a 90% power rating, 34% contact, and 46% patience. His speed is 1%.

It is his defense, however, that gives one pause.

A natural third baseman, he was moved to the outfield because Ryan Zimmerman was blocking him at third.

He was a lousy outfielder, though, and was moved to first last year. He had a .988 fielding percentage with eight errors in 70 games last season, not too bad for his first year at the position.

Time will tell if he can adequately play there.

2B: Ronnie Belliard: (.287-22-96)

Again, these numbers are based on a full season; Belliard batted .287-11-46 in 2008. No one seems to like Belliard very much (he had to sign a minor league contract with the Nationals two years ago), but every year, he hits around .275 with double-digit homers and good RBI numbers.

No he's not great defensively, but he's a good major league player.

Scouting report numbers: Power: 61%, Speed: 49%, Contact: 72%, Patience: 54%.

The Nationals have no one in the farm system who has shown major league potential at second, and until they sign someone else or make a trade, Belliard is going to be the guy.

They tried to replace him with Emilio Bonafacio this past summer, but he was traded to the Marlins during the offseason. The Nationals are now saying that Anderson Hernandez is the team's starting second baseman heading into spring training, but sooner or later, when Hernandez hits a dry spell, or when he's back in the minors, or becomes a former National, Belliard will be once again playing every day.

SS: Smiley Gonzalez: (.307-4-88, 26 steals, .412 OBP, 84 BB, 74 K's)

The 19-year-old was the Nationals' first foray into the Latin American market, beating out teams like the Red Sox and Yankees for his services by giving the then-16-year-old a $1.4 million dollar signing bonus.

His 84 career games have come in the Gulf Coast League, so he has yet to prove himself against strong competition.

That said, he's looking very, very good.

His scouting report is very impressive. Though he has only a 30% power rating, he has 72% for his speed, 86% for contact, and 85% for plate patience. That adds up to a very fast, very patient, very good leadoff hitter.

Defensively, he's committed 25 errors in 84 games, but scouts put little stock into those numbers. He is a fine defender who just needs to fine-tune his "plus" tools to become a very solid major league shortstop.

But he's just 19, and it could be four years before Nationals fans see him at the major league level.

3B: Ryan Zimmerman (.289-22-94)

Zimmerman was the Nationals' first-ever draft selection when he was taken with the 4th pick of the 2005 amateur draft.

Those are his career numbers over an entire season. He's just 24, and he'll win a handful of Gold Gloves before he's through.

Scouting report: Power: 77%, Speed: 49%, Contact: 67%, Patience: 31%.

'Nuff said.

LF: Josh Willingham (.266-25-85, .361 OBP)

Though he has yet to play a game for Washington, the 29-year-old provides the Nationals a solid bat and a good-enough glove. He's only made 11 errors in his career. The problem is he's not very quick and won't get to some balls that other fielders might.

His scouting numbers are very impressive. He has a power rating of 95% (Alfonso Soriano is 94), a speed rating of 50%, contact isn't great at 31%, but his patience is off the charts at 93%.

His only problem is that he's lost a lot of time because of a bad back.

The whole package, however, is good. He's what the Nationals thought they got when they traded for Austin Kearns.

CF: Lastings Milledge (.263-16-72, 18 steals)

Milledge has been considered a superstar in waiting since his early days with the Mets. This may be true, or he might just be another good outfielder. There is no question that he'll hit .285-25-85 with 30 steals year in and year out.

His scouting report: Power: 77%, Speed: 83%, Contact: 38%, Patience: 32%.

But, Milledge is not a center fielder, and the Nationals have a glut of corner outfielders. He might be traded, or he might be moved to the corners at some point.

That said, I hope I see the 23-year-old in the Nationals' outfield for the next decade.

RF: Michael Burgess (.267-29-101, 185 K's, .360 OBP)

The 19-year-old was drafted 49th in the first round (a supplemental pick for losing Alfonso Soriano as a free agent) in 2007. He would have been a top-10 pick, but his batting suffered his senior year in high school.

But oh what a hitter he was. Only four high-schoolers ever hit a home run over the 40 foot high, 425 foot deep center field fence at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota Florida. Bo Jackson, Frank Thomas and Ken Griffey Jr. were the first three.

Michael Burgess was the fourth.

Burgess also hit a homer in an AFLAC San Diego all-star game that cleared a six-story building behind the outfield wall.

With a cracked bat.

Wow.

Take a look at his scouting report: Power: 97, Speed: 20, Contact: 7, Patience: 79

Wow again. 97% in the power department.

Cardinals' slugger Albert Pujols has that same 97% power rating.

And take a look at the Phillies' Ryan Howard's scouting numbers. They are almost identical to Burgess'. (Burgess' numbers are in parenthesis for easier comparison)

Power: 100 (97), Speed: 1 (20), Contact: 7 (7), Patience: 86 (79)

Well, not exactly identical; Burgess is much faster. But I think that Burgess is going to be a similar player to Ryan Howard with a low batting average, high strikeout rate and lots and lots of power.

I can hear the "oooooohs" and "aaaaaahs" coming from Nationals' fans already.

Look for Burgess in Washington sometime in 2011 or 2012.

C: Jesus Flores (.252-12-84)

These are his career numbers (totalling 481 at-bats), and that's about right for an entire season. Flores will probably catch 130 games a year, resting when the team plays a day game after a night game and against really nasty right-handers.

The 23-year-old was taken in the Rule 5 draft from the New York Mets two years ago, when team special assistant Davey Johnson, who had seem Flores play for Port St. Lucie, told Nationals GM Jim Bowden about the slugging catcher.

The move was unusual because minor league catchers are seldom protected from the draft because they are never drafted. They need to play every day early in their career to hone their skills. Mets GM Omar Minaya never thought Flores would be taken, even after hitting 21 home runs that season.

Of course, the Nationals major league roster wasn't much better than an 'A' league team, so he fit right in.

Flores played well his rookie year, hitting .244 which was remarkable considering he was facing class 'A' pitchers just a few months earlier.

His scouting report numbers: Power: 86, Speed: 5, Contact: 12, Patience: 12

By way of comparison, Ryan Zimmerman has 77% power, 67% contact, and 31% patience.

Jesus Flores should mature into a power-hitting catcher who will hit low in the lineup because he will never become a contact hitter. He's going to hit around .260, strikeout 120 or so times a year, have a .310 OBP and play solid defense.

I'm thinking .260-15-60 in 480 at-bats sounds about right.

Other than second base, the Nationals currently have players within their system that will be, well, should be, productive major leaguers by 2012.

Will the Nationals-or their fans-be willing to wait that long for the team to field a contender?

It's very doubtful.

Sooner or later, however, the premium free agents will begin to sign with the Nationals, but the team will have to begin to win before that happens.

The Tampa Bay Rays are a prime example. Having never had a winning season prior to 2008, the Rays blossomed last year and were the champions of the American League.

The Rays have had a dismal record of drawing prime free agents to Tampa Bay. They play in the worst stadium in the league, have one of the worst attendance records over the past decade and are generally an afterthought to bay area fans.

Then they go to the World Series.

And then they sign Phillies' outfielder Pat Burrell, who has averaged .257-31-103 over his major league career, two a two-year contract.

Right now, the Nationals can't even sign a .250 hitting outfielder who had to take a paycut of almost $6 million a year.

Fear not, Nationals' fans. Help is on the way.

Though the just-completed 59-win season doesn't show it, things are very bright for the "Beltway Boys."

All they need is time.

We'll take a look at the pitching and the pitching hopefuls tomorrow