Closing Time In Chicago—Sizing up the Cubs' Race for a Finisher

The Cubs three-horse race for the closer’s spot is hardly out of the gates. But Sunday night, two days before the Cubs first full-squad workout, manager Lou Piniella declared Bob Howry the early favorite for the position.

Pitching coach Larry Rothschild downplayed the proclamation, probably a wise move considering Piniella’s history of changing his mind (Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez were the only consistencies in Lou’s lineup from Opening Day through October last season). Howry did the same, though he did say in January that he didn’t see why he shouldn’t close.

The thought of Howry as closer, however, should scare Cubs fans. To be fair to Howry and all the candidates, though, we'll examine each pitcher’s case.

Bob Howry

2007 stats: 81.1 IP, 3.32 ERA, 72 K, 19 BB, 76 H, 8 HR, 8 SV.

Case for: Howry’s mound presence is unmatched – this guy always keeps his cool, whether it’s Albert Pujols or Brad Ausmus standing at the plate. The pressure of closing a game has never fazed Howry. He’s saved 65 games in his career, and he’s used to high-pressure situations. He doesn’t have the whacky personality or herky-jerk delivery you see from some of the game’s top closers (Jose Valverde, Francisco Rodriguez), but Howry’s extreme calmness is intimidating in itself. Standing 6-feet-5-inches and 220 lbs., the right hander has lanky, yet extremely robust, legs. He’s a big dude, and don’t be fooled by his demeanor.

Howry’s control, as evidenced by his near 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio, is his greatest strength. Howry goes right at hitters with a 93 to 96-mph heater that explodes out of his hand when he’s going right. The 34-year-old modified this throwing program this off-season, pitching from a mound several times before heading to Arizona to ensure that his arm strength is there come Opening Day. Howry admitted his velocity wasn’t as high at the beginning of last season as it was after the All-Star break, when he posted a 1.85 ERA. If he’s at top speed March 31, we might see the dominant Howry all year long.

Case against: Predictability isn’t a good thing for a closer. If their team is losing, hitters face the most anxiety when batting in the ninth inning. If you’re trying to close out a game, you want hitters guessing on what’s coming when they’re most vulnerable. Closers who keep hitters off-guard induce some of the most futile swings in the ninth because hitters are so nervous. Unfortunately for Howry, he’s pretty easy to figure out. The veteran throws nearly 90 percent fastballs, rarely mixing in any sort of off-speed pitch. Howry’s predictability would make one-run save chances quite tense for Cubs fans. If Ryan Howard’s at the plate with two outs in the ninth and the North Siders up a run, you want the slugger to think about things a little bit. Will he start me with the breaking ball? The split? The fastball? When visualizing this hypothetical match up, I see Howard depositing Howry’s first pitch (a fastball, of course) onto Sheffield Ave.

Rank: 3

Carlos Marmol

2007 Stats: 69.1 IP, 1.43 ERA, 96 K, 35 BB, 41 H, 3 HR, 1 SV.

Case for: There’s no debate over who was the 2007 Cubs best reliever. With an exploding heater and a hook that bites more than a wiffle ball, the 25-year-old Marmol emerged as one of the league’s most dominant relievers in ’07. With nearly 150 big-league innings under his belt, Marmol is ready to finish games for the North Siders. Piniella used him in high-stress situations last season, many of them more difficult than what a closer faces, starting the ninth with nobody on base. Marmol, like Howry, won’t shy away from anyone. And why would you with a 97+ mph fastball? Marmol actually finished 26th in NL MVP voting last year – I know, crazy, right? But it underscores Marmol’s value to the Cubs.

Case against: He’s never done it before. Well, he recorded one save last year. We learned during the Latroy Hawkins Experiment in 2004-05 that some relievers, no matter their talent, just can’t close. Hawkins, who posted ERAs of 2.13 and 1.86 as a set-up man his two years prior to coming to Chicago, converted just 25 of 34 saves during the ’04 campaign. Marmol, who is young and confident, doesn’t seem like he’d fold under the pressure, but nobody can be certain.

My biggest beef will using Marmol to close games, though, is that the right-hander is too dominant to close.

Say what? Yeah, that’s right.

Just because the closer gets the save doesn’t mean he saved the game. Often, a reliever’s ability to strand runners in the sixth, seventh or eighth inning determines the game’s outcome.

Therefore, I like to have a guy in my pen who can come in at any time and shut the door—we’ll call him a stopper. The ideal stopper excels in pressure situations, can pitch almost every day and has nasty, unhittable stuff. Meet Carlos Marmol.

There’s no use saving your shut-down reliever for the ninth if the game’s most important situation comes in the sixth. Last year, Piniella often called on Marmol in the sixth or seventh inning to get out of a jam and then left him in for the next inning. And, to maximize Marmol’s impact, that’s exactly how Piniella should use Marmol this year.

Rank: 2

Kerry Wood

2007 Stats: 24.1 IP, 3.33 ERA, 24 K, 13 BB, 18 H, 0 HR, 0 SV.

Case for: Ever since Wood suffered a strained triceps during the 2004 season, he’s seemed destined to become a closer. The 6-foot-5-inch right hander has that nasty snarl when he’s on the mound. Though Wood has shed weight since his glory years, he’ still big, and he’s still intimidating. Wood, like his counterparts, has never been afraid to challenge hitters. His days of hitting 100 mph on the radar are over, but Wood regained velocity last season, usually maxing out around 97. If he can keep his disappearing breaking ball near the plate, hitters will swing at it, and they’ll look foolish. Wood didn’t allow a single homer last year, proving that his stuff is back. And I think it’s here to stay.

After fanning 20 Astros that memorable May afternoon during his rookie season, Wood faced the highest of expectations. After falling short in ’03, Sports Illustrated featured Wood on its cover, proclaiming the burly Texan would finally lead the Cubs to the promised land. Injuries, though, have quieted nearly all the hype that used to surround Wood. Cubs fans got tired of waiting for Wood to get healthy during the second half of Dusty Baker’s regime, and they finally lowered their expectations for Wood before last season. Though Wood has never been one to toot his own horn with the media, he’s more than ready for that hype to return. He’s more than ready to take the ball in the ninth.

Case against: Wood has one fewer career save than Marmol: O. He was a starter his whole life until 2007. Though I can’t see Wood crumbling under pressure, you never know. There’s obviously a huge difference between starting a game and throwing 6 or 7 innings and getting the call in the ninth expected to record the last three outs.

The biggest argument against Wood is that he hasn't proved he can pitch back-to-back days. Closers can go a week without pitching, but they can also get the nod two or three days in a row. If Wood gets the spot, we should know by the end of April if he's durable enough to pitch on consecutive days. 

Rank: 1

Final thought

Here’s the good news for the Cubs: if whoever Piniella declares as his closer for the start of the season fails, we know Lou won’t hesitate to make a change. He didn’t wait around to replace Cesar Izturis with Ryan Theriot at short last year, and he won’t play things differently with his closer. The Cubs second-year skipper will have to give his selection at least a month or so to get acclimated, but come mid-May, Piniella will evaluate his choice. There’s no terrible option here, though Howry’s predictability saddles him with the biggest flaw out of the bunch. And call me rebellious, but I don’t think a team’s most dominant reliever should be reserved for the ninth. The stopper, in my opinion, should be available from the sixth through eighth and used in the game’s most important situation. Therefore, I’d knock on Wood and let No. 34 give it a whirl.