In part one of my review of preseason predictions, I discussed the difference between what I thought the table would look like back in August, and what it actually looks like now. Some predictions were fairly accurate, and others (such as my preseason assessment of Hull) were well off.
In this segment, we'll take a look at the rest of the predictions that Jeff Harbert and I made and add some new ones to the list.
Surprise package
I picked: Aston Villa
And...? Villa have indeed surprised many people this season. They currently sit in fourth place, three points ahead of perennial Champions League participants Arsenal. What's more, Villa have already managed to take four points against Arsenal. This could be the difference between the UEFA Cup and the Champions League for the Gunners.
Villa has been successful thanks to an offense that always keeps them in the game. The defense hasn't been particularly stingy, but Villa is consistently getting two or three goals each game.
Gabriel Agbonlahor has been the best of the bunch, scoring nine times and helping ease the loss of John Carew to injury.
Biggest Disappointment
I picked: Manchester City
And...? City have been disappointing, there's no doubt about that. But have they been the biggest of the disappointing Premier League teams this season?
No. Far from it.
Blackburn and Tottenham especially have struggled unexpectedly. Blackburn is in the relegation zone, and Tottenham had been there for most of the early season until the arrival of Harry Redknapp.
City merely occupy a mid-table spot. They've had some very impressive results during the season, as well as some very bad ones. They've beaten Arsenal 3-0, Portsmouth 6-0, and Hull 5-1.
Then they've gone and lost to West Brom, the last place team in the Premiership, as well as Middlesbrough, who have been hovering around the relegation zone.
You could consider Man City to be the biggest disappointment based on the fact that they made one of the biggest signings of the summer in Robinho, and have massively underachieved. But I won't. For me, Tottenham and Blackburn have been more disappointing.
Golden Boot
I picked: Fernando Torres
And...? Torres has spent a good deal of time on the sidelines this season thanks to various injuries. I had expected him to continue the success he had last season and over the summer with Spain, but injuries have kept him off the pitch so far.
Instead, Nicolas Anelka is leading the Premiership in scoring with 14 goals so far this season. Anelka has been magnificent for Chelsea in the absence of Didier Drogba. After several seasons away from elite clubs, Anelka is proving that he still has what it takes to compete at the very top levels of football.
Amr Zaki, Agbonlahor and Robinho are also enjoying great seasons.
Torres has managed to maintain a high strike rate when he has been playing, netting five goals in seven appearances. But, he hasn't been able to stay healthy. If he can put together a run of appearances in the second half of the season, he may still be able to make a run at top goal scoring honors.
Best Buy
I picked: Samir Nasri
And...? Nasri has been very good, netting four goals in the league for Arsenal, including a brace that beat Manchester United. But has he been the best newcomer?
As much as I'd love to say that Nasri has been the best, I've been very impressed with Geovanni, of Hull. He was a key part of their incredible early season run, run that saw them rise has high as third place in the table.
Geovanni has also already doubled his scoring output from last season, in which he was considered a disappointment at Manchester City.
While Hull has slipped up a little bit as of late, Geovanni's contributions cannot be ignored. They will likely be spending at least one more season in the top flight and they'll have him to thank.
Biggest Bargain
I picked: Giovani Dos Santos
And...? He's made six league appearances for Tottenham and has made no contribution in the stat sheet. It's too early in his Tottenham career to call him a bust, but he has also failed to live up to expectations so far.
I should've picked Deco.
For only £8 million, Chelsea have gotten themselves a midfielder who is still among the premier playmakers in the world. A few seasons ago, it was unthinkable that anybody would be able to sign Deco for so cheap, but Chelsea managed it over the summer.
Perhaps Deco's play has helped ease the pain of missing out on the Robinho sweepstakes.
New predictions
-Arsenal will recover to finish fourth and qualify for the Champions League.
-Liverpool will continue their excellent run of form and win their first ever Premier League title.
-Hull and Fulham, two teams expected to fight for survival at the beginning of the season, will find ways to finish in the top half of the table.
-Stoke will find a way to survive, at the expense of Middlesbrough.
-Tottenham will remain close to relegation zone all season despite 'Arry's best efforts.
-Portsmouth will recover from the loss of 'Arry to finish in the top half.
-West Ham will plummet down the table during the second half of the season.
9 comments Last one added 6 months ago — Leave a Comment
Ryan Lynch 6 months ago
Joe,
Definitely some interesting picks you've made, and I enjoyed the read. I disagree with three of your "new predictions" though.
I really have a feeling that Arsenal aren't going to make 4th this year.
I don't see Boro going down, but I definitely think Stoke will continue to struggle
And as for my Pompey lads, I do expect us to recover, but I don't see a top half finish. I will be absolutely chuffed if it happens, but I see us somewhere between 11th and 13th.
We'll see though - very good article
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Joe G 6 months ago
Thanks Ryan!
Stoke are a hard team to figure out. They've had some bad losses this year but also a couple of good wins. It's going to be very close.
I'd like to see Portsmouth do well. In my original preseason predictions, I thought that they could challenge for Europe.
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Ryan Lynch 6 months ago
Everyone thought we would, Joe, and some even had the ridiculous prediction that we were going to be where Aston Villa are right now. I had a feeling we were going to have some road-bumps this year, and if you go back to my articles at the beginning of the season, I actually predicted an exit from Europe pretty early on, a poor cup run, and a struggle to stay in the top 10.
I just hope we steady the ship sooner rather than later. No team is too good to be in a relegation fight (especially this year), but we really do have some amazing quality in the side.
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Joe G 6 months ago
I saw the magic that Harry had worked and thought that it would continue. Pity, it'd be exciting to see a smaller club break up the established hierarchy up top. Portsmouth will stay up, no need to worry about that, but they'll fall short of lofty preseason hopes.
But, there's no point in competing if you aren't going to set your goals high at the beginning of the season, right?
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Maire Ofeire 6 months ago
Out on a limb here from moi but:
Manchester United to win the league and Arsenal to finish 2nd or 3rd. Perhaps I am gone just slightly crazy but I think we will be comfortable finishing in the top 4. In fact I think that we'll look back and think "what were we all getting worked up about".
Wenger will definitely pull off at least one "magic hat" signing this month who will tidy up our midfield. If we can start to grind out 1-0 victories that'll do and then over a course of a few weeks (fingers crossed) we will get Walcott back in Feb, Rosicky back in March, Eduardo back fully fit and banging them in by March and Cesc back for the season's end in April.
Call me crazy but better to be crazy than moaning, it keeps me going.
Also Chelsea will not win anything!
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Joe G 6 months ago
I dearly hope you're right about the Gunners, both with the finish and the signing. It would do a lot to silence some of Wenger's critics. I do think that they're a more talented club than Aston Villa and that will manifest itself in a better second half than the Villains.
Don't think that Chelsea will win anything, either. They've had problems at home, Liverpool has been looking strong, and Man U has two games in hand to make up the difference in points between second and third. If they fail to capture a trophy, do you think Big Phil will be on the hot seat?
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Maire Ofeire 6 months ago
I'm not sure, for the first time in years Chelsea don't have a lot of money to play around with and have to look to sell players if they want to bring anyone in. Drogba looks like he wants to be somewhere else, Anelka doesn't like to stay at a club too long, Deco looks past it now (strange considering the start he had) and Scolari seems not to know anyway to sort it out but maybe they should just give him a chance, it just seems like they are missing something.
As for Arsenal - the fans have backed off Wenger in the last few days since he said he signed his new contract "agreeing to work under restrictions" and when Madrid came knocking I think a lot of those complaining about him have realised that life is better with him than without him. I think Arsenal fans are beginning to see that the board are operating in a way that protects them from going into large debt on anything else than the stadium.
The media and pundits have been building up Arsenal as the next Leeds which is frankly complete rubbish to me and overhype our crap they think our team are. Our first choice starting 11 would be:
Almunia - average but you just can't get good keepers these days
Clichy - makes mistakes but still wouldn't swap him for anyone, he just needs confidence
Sagna - top player
Gallas - seems to be playing better and at least he wants to win
Djourou - I like him and think he can get better
Fabregas - need I explain?
Nasri - well worth the £12m
Rosicky - bloody hell how we miss him
Walcott - getting better
RvP - one of our best players this season
Adebayor - still rate him and he's still proving he wants to play for us
Bench: Fabianski, Toure, Denilson, Diaby, Eduardo, Bendtner, Vela, Ramsey, Wilshere, Silvestre
May need that holding midfielder to be bought but when you look at a full healthy Arsenal squad we are pretty damn good.
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Joe G 6 months ago
If we get that holding midfielder, I imagine your 2nd or 3rd place prediction could come true. It's amazing how much this lot misses Gilberto and Flamini. So in reality, your prediction of a good signing could kill two birds with one stone. Now all that's left is to see what will happen this month. I'm hoping for something good.
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Maire Ofeire 6 months ago
I'm still at a loss as to why he left Gilberto go and I think Wenger himself knows that he messed that up big time. Surely he thought he had someone there to cover that position.
Flamini and Hleb can rot on the benches of Milan and Barcelona for all I care, I have little to no respect for them. Flamini openly admitted he got buckets loads of money from Milan and Hleb said some crap about London been too noisy when every man and his dog knows all the players live in the leafy suburbs.
Defour or Witsel would be good signings in my opinion. Witsel looks like a decent player PLUS he supports Arsenal and wants to play for us. We don't need a big name we just need quality - Wenger has done it in the last few seasons with Sagna and Eduardo to name but 2 so I fully expect him to do it again.
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