College Football Teams Set for Huge Turnarounds in 2015
Turnaround stories have come to dominate college football.
First came the 2013 Auburn Tigers, who turned a 3-9 record into an SEC title and a trip to the BCS National Championship Game, where it narrowly lost to Florida State. Then came the 2014 TCU Horned Frogs, who turned a 4-8 record into a co-Big 12 title and a trip to the Peach Bowl, where they thoroughly beat Ole Miss.
But who will maintain the tradition in 2014?
To answer that we've looked at numerous important factors for improvement, chief among them returning starters, incoming talent, turnover luck, coaching changes and success in recent seasons.
Sound off below and let us know what you think.
Ball State Cardinals
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What They Did in 2014
Ball State regressed from nine wins in 2012 and 10 wins in 2013 to five wins in 2014. The Cardinals hung tight at Iowa in Week 2, losing 17-13, but compounded that loss with four straight losses afterward—one against FCS Indiana State, and another against Army.
Why They'll Turn Things Around
1. They finished the season strong. According to Bill Connelly of Football Study Hall, the Cardinals were a top-60 team in the fourth quarter of the year; they finished No. 123, No. 125 and No. 96 in the first three quarters, respectively. A 41-24 win over Bowling Green in the season finale should give them momentum and confidence. Technically, Bowling Green won the MAC East title.
2. Continuity. Ball State turned to underclassmen in 2014 and now returns 18 starters. The only offensive starter it loses, running back Jahwan Edwards, was one of the best skill players in program history, but Horactio Banks is a proven replacement. Either Jack Milas or Ozzie Mann must step up at quarterback, but if either player does, this team can easily contend for a conference championship.
Michigan Wolverines
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What They Did in 2014
Michigan slumped to another disappointing season—this one worse than usual. The Wolverines finished 5-7 and missed a bowl game for the third time since 1975. They fired head coach Brady Hoke after the season, and rightfully so. Hoke went 31-20 in Ann Arbor.
Why They'll Turn Things Around
1. Jim Harbaugh. If Nick Saban could dominate the college game, fail in the NFL, and then return to re-dominate the college game, it stands to reason that Harbaugh, who dominated the college game, succeeded in the NFL, and then returned to the college game, can do the same. Saban went 7-6 in his first year at Alabama, but Michigan stocked the cupboard by recruiting at a top-10 level under Hoke, which should expedite the rebuilding process under Harbaugh.
2. Five-year performance. According to Football Outsiders, "The strongest indicator of how a college football team will perform in the upcoming season is their performance in recent seasons." U-M has underachieved by its own standards, but its F/+ rating since 2011 ranks higher than that of any non-bowl team from 2014.
In layman's terms: Although they've been worse than expected, the Wolverines haven't been bad, per se, over the past five seasons. Harbaugh can lift them from Top 40 to Top 20—easily.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
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What They Did in 2014
Oklahoma State looked lost for most of the season—a predictable side effect of losing, well, pretty much everything from 2013. Quarterback Daxx Garman replaced an injured J.W. Walsh and struggled to complete short and intermediate throws, but Mason Rudolph replaced him at the end of the season, led the Cowboys to an upset over Oklahoma and sneaked them into the Cactus Bowl, where they beat Washington to finish with a winning record (7-6).
Why They'll Turn Things Around
1. Rudolph. Oklahoma State found its quarterback, and that changes everything. Rudolph has the size (6'4", 220 lbs) and arm strength to successfully run Mike Gundy's offense, and he showed poise beyond his years as a freshman. Odds Shark lists him as a 40-1 bet to win the Heisman Trophy, which speaks volumes considering his inexperience. Rudolph has thrown just 86 career passes.
2. Turnover regression. The Cowboys finished No. 122 in turnover luck last season, per Connelly. They recovered just 34.8 percent of fumbles and intercepted just 32.7 percent of defended passes. Both of those numbers should normalize in 2015, and the Cowboys should improve on the four points they lost per game via turnover luck.
South Carolina Gamecocks
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What They Did in 2014
Texas A&M drilled South Carolina on the first Thursday of the season, dropping the Gamecocks from the preseason Top 10 and sparking their worst year since 2009. Subsequent losses against Missouri, Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee and Clemson left them reeling, although an upset over Miami (FL) in the Independence Bowl got them to 7-6.
Why They'll Turn Things Around
1. Recent success. Prior to 2014, the Gamecocks had won 40 games in four years, including 11 games apiece in three straight seasons. Even counting 2014, its program F/+ ranks No. 14 in the country since 2010. Quarterback issues make them hard to trust, but head coach Steve Spurrier knows how to groom an offense out of nothing, and he's proven as much over the course of multiple decades.
2. The defensive line. The Gamecocks' biggest problem last season was getting bullied in the trenches. After losing Jadeveon Clowney, Kelcy Quarles and Chaz Sutton, the unit finished No. 105 in the country in adjusted line yards (run defense) and No. 120 in adjusted sack rate (pass rush), according to Football Outsiders.
But this year they add reinforcements. Three starters return up front—which if nothing else means added experience—but newcomers Marquavius Lewis, Dexter Wideman, Shameik Blackshear and Dante Sawyer will slide into the rotation and earn heavy reps.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
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What They Did in 2014
Texas Tech fielded one of the worst defenses in college football en route to a 4-8 record. Its only wins came over Central Arkansas (by seven), UTEP (by four), Kansas (by 13) and Iowa State (by three). Six teams dropped 40-plus points on the Red Raiders, highlighted by TCU, which actually did it twice in an 82-27 thrashing.
Why They'll Turn Things Around
1. Continuity. Texas Tech returns 17 total starters: nine on offense, eight on defense. All-Big 12 offensive tackle Le'Raven Clark and Big 12 sack leader Pete Robertson forewent the NFL draft, which gives TTU star power on each side of the ball.
Beyond eight returning starters, the defense adds Ohio State transfer Mike Mitchell at inside linebacker and true freshman Breiden Fehoko at defensive tackle. Mitchell was the No. 58 overall recruit in 2013, and Fehoko was the No. 50 overall recruit in 2015.
2. Turnovers. Texas Tech finished with a minus-13 turnover margin in 2014 and a minus-14 margin the year before. Part of that was random—last year, for example, TTU finished No. 120 in turnover luck—but more had to do with coaching and scheme.
Enter defensive coordinator David Gibbs, whom in January the Red Raiders hired away from Houston, along with defensive assistant Zac Spavital. Houston's defense led the country with 73 forced turnovers over the past two seasons.
"What [Gibbs and Spavital] were able to accomplish in their short time at the University of Houston is incredible," Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury said in an official statement. "Coach Gibbs will bring experience and ingenuity to our defensive unit."
Vanderbilt Commodores
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What They Did in 2014
Derek Mason's head coaching debut was a catastrophe, starting from the first week of the season, when Temple drilled Vanderbilt by 30 points in Nashville. Things improved just slightly the rest of the way, the Commodores finishing 3-9 with close wins over UMass (34-31), Charleston Southern (21-20) and Old Dominion (42-28).
Why They'll Turn Things Around
1. Turnovers. I hate to keep barking up this tree, but turnovers are so important that they can't be ignored, and Vanderbilt finished No. 126 (third-to-last) in the country in turnover luck. Mason values efficiency over playmaking, but still: That number should progress to the mean, and Vanderbilt should force a healthy sum of turnovers in 2014.
2. Continuity. Vanderbilt returns nine starters on either side of the ball. Mason realized quickly that 2014 was a learning year, and so he let the young guys develop with live reps.
Will Vanderbilt become great in 2015? Doubtful. But there's a good chance it improves across the board. SEC fans watched Bret Bielema turn a disastrous debut season into a promising sophomore season at Arkansas. Why shouldn't Mason follow suit?
A bowl game is entirely conceivable.
Note: All recruiting info refers to the 247Sports composite rankings. F/+ ratings courtesy of Football Outsiders, and turnover luck courtesy of Football Study Hall's Bill Connelly.
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