SEC Football: Optimistic, Pessimistic and Realistic Predictions for Every Team
It's June, and you've probably just picked up that preseason preview magazine or downloaded one for your phone or tablet to peruse at the pool or the beach.
In it, you'll find a prediction for your team.
You might like it, you might hate it or you might agree with it completely.
Since there are still two more months of the offseason to go before toe meets leather, this slideshow is here to cover all of those emotions.
How great can your team be? How bad can it get? Our optimistic, pessimistic and realistic predictions for every SEC team based on returning talent, scheme and schedule are in this slideshow.
Alabama Crimson Tide
1 of 14
There's no doubt Alabama has earned the benefit of the doubt.
Head coach Nick Saban and offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin have navigated through quarterback uncertainty in each of the last two seasons to claim back-to-back SEC titles and College Football Playoff berths, as well as the 2015 national title.
This year, though, things could be more challenging.
Center Ryan Kelly, quarterback Jake Coker and running back/Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry are all gone, the status of star left tackle Cam Robinson is up in the air after his offseason arrest, and the Tide will need to have some highly touted linebackers like Reuben Foster and Rashaan Evans step in the middle of new defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt's defense.
But back are star wide receiver Calvin Ridley, tight end O.J. Howard, defensive end Jonathan Allen and a loaded secondary to take on a schedule that includes a tough out-of-conference game against the USC Trojans and a road trip to the Ole Miss Rebels in September.
The combination of offensive line issues, the most inexperienced running back corps Saban has had during his time in Tuscaloosa and a defense that might have to match last season's success to overcome some offensive speed bumps could make this a rebuilding year.
But even in rebuilding years, Alabama should be contending for the SEC West title in November. Can the offensive line have success against some of the stellar defensive fronts the Crimson Tide faces in 2016, including LSU, Texas A&M and Tennessee, and even Arkansas and Auburn, potentially?
Optimistic: 12-0 (8-0 SEC), SEC West champions, SEC champions, College Football Playoff berth
Pessimistic: 9-3 (5-3 or 6-2 SEC) with losses to three of the following: USC, Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn
Realistic: 11-1 (7-1 SEC) SEC West champions with a loss to Tennessee, chance at the SEC title and a College Football Playoff berth in the SEC Championship Game in a rematch against Tennessee
Arkansas Razorbacks
2 of 14
Arkansas is going through quite an offensive overhaul heading into 2016, which includes junior quarterback Austin Allen taking over for his brother Brandon, a crew of running backs vying to replace Alex Collins, Jeremy Sprinkle stepping in for former tight end Hunter Henry and newcomers along the offensive line who have to replace former stars.
It's not a rebuilding year for Arkansas; it's a retooling year.
The ceiling for the Hogs likely isn't the SEC West title—which some predicted might happen a year ago. But the floor is far from the 4-8 debacle of John L. Smith's season as the Arkansas head coach in 2012 and current head coach Bret Bielema's first season in Fayetteville in 2013.
The front seven for the Hogs should be stellar thanks to the presence of end Deatrich Wise and linebackers Brooks Ellis and Dre Greenlaw. Can the secondary tighten up and stop giving up big plays? That will be a huge factor in determining whether Arkansas is competitive with the big boys or gets relegated to fighting for a bowl berth.
Optimistic: 9-3 (5-3 SEC) with losses to Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU
Pessimistic: 5-7 (2-6 SEC) with losses to Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, TCU, Texas A&M, Auburn and Florida
Realistic: 6-6 (2-6 SEC) with losses to Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, TCU, Texas A&M and Auburn
Auburn Tigers
3 of 14
Auburn's 7-6 debacle of 2015 has landed head coach Gus Malzahn squarely on the hot seat, but that doesn't mean he will stay there for long.
With a defensive front that includes end Carl Lawson, tackle Montravius Adams, a ton of depth and graduate transfer linebacker T.J. Neal from Illinois, the Tigers should be much more consistent in 2016 than they were in 2015 provided their stars stay healthy.
That should be enough to land Auburn back in the SEC West title race, as long as the offense can be just a bit more consistent. That hinges on Malzahn's ability to find success with junior college transfer dual-threat quarterback John Franklin III or help returning co-starters Jeremy Johnson or Sean White become more consistent through the air.
The Tigers can run the ball well behind senior Jovon Robinson and actually played well defensively over the final five games of the 2015 season (339 yards per game). If they keep that up and find a quarterback, look out for the Tigers. If they can't, look for Malzahn out on the job hunt this winter.
Optimistic: 10-2 (7-1 SEC) with two losses to Clemson and Alabama
Pessimistic: 5-7 (2-6 SEC) with losses to Clemson, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia, Alabama and either Mississippi State or Arkansas
Realistic: 8-4 (5-3 SEC) with losses to Clemson, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama
Florida Gators
4 of 14
Florida won the SEC East last year thanks to its hot 6-0 start, but the team that struggled down the stretch and lost three straight games to end the season was a shell of its former self thanks to the suspension (and subsequent transfer) of quarterback Will Grier and an offensive line that got incredibly worn down.
There's more depth and more familiarity with second-year head coach Jim McElwain heading into 2016, which should land the Gators in the thick of the SEC East title race.
Luke Del Rio looked fully capable of managing the offense in the spring game when he went 10-of-11 with two touchdowns; the trio of Mark Thompson, Jordan Cronkrite and Jordan Scarlett should be fine at running back; the young offensive line has had a full offseason to develop; and the Gators defense is—as usual—loaded.
The schedule includes the annual games versus Florida State and LSU, which is tough. It also features road trips to Tennessee, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and the neutral-site game in Jacksonville with Georgia. If the fall version of Del Rio looks like the spring version, Florida's a player. If he doesn't, the floor is pretty low.
Optimistic: 11-1 (8-0 or 7-1 SEC) with a loss to either Tennessee or Florida State, SEC East champions, SEC champions, College Football Playoff berth
Pessimistic: 6-6 (3-5 SEC) with losses to Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, Florida State, Arkansas and Vanderbilt
Realistic: 9-3 (6-2 SEC) with losses to Tennessee, Arkansas (in an upset) and Florida State
Georgia Bulldogs
5 of 14
First-year Georgia head coach Kirby Smart should have a solid running game to fall back on that includes Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, as well as an experienced secondary that should thrive under the coaching of Smart and defensive coordinator Mel Tucker.
But there are questions at quarterback, where returning starter Greyson Lambert is trying to hold off the challenges of junior Brice Ramsey and true freshman early enrollee Jacob Eason. Eason is the future, but even if he plays from the get-go, there will be some hiccups along the way.
In the trenches, Smart must replace both tackles on the offensive line and doesn't have the depth and experience on the defensive line where only one upperclassman—John Atkins—could be in the two-deep.
North Carolina out of the gate is tough, as are two cross-division games against Ole Miss and Auburn and division games versus Tennessee and Florida.
Optimistic: 10-2 (6-2 SEC) with losses to Ole Miss and Florida
Pessimistic: 7-5 (4-4 SEC) with losses to North Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida and Auburn
Realistic: 9-3 (5-3 SEC) with losses to Ole Miss, Florida and Auburn
Kentucky Wildcats
6 of 14
While Texas A&M's Kevin Sumlin, Auburn's Gus Malzahn and LSU's Les Miles dominate the hot-seat headlines in the SEC, don't forget about Kentucky's Mark Stoops.
The fourth-year head coach of the Wildcats hasn't led the program to a bowl, has just four SEC wins in three seasons and has struggled down the stretch in each of the last two seasons.
Stoops does get running backs Stanley "Boom" Williams and Jojo Kemp back, has a solid wide receiving corps, has some stability at quarterback with Drew Barker and has an offensive line that returns four starters. But six of the seven leading tacklers from last year's defense are gone, and it's not like the Wildcats have become known for defense under Stoops—who is a defensive-minded head coach.
A bowl game is a necessity, and it is attainable with this cast. But the margin for error is very slim thanks to the lack of depth on the roster.
Optimistic: 7-5 (4-4 SEC) with losses to Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and Louisville
Pessimistic: 3-9 (0-8 SEC) with losses to Florida, South Carolina, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Missouri, Georgia, Tennessee and Louisville
Realistic: 4-8 (1-8 SEC) with losses to Florida, South Carolina, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Georgia, Tennessee and Louisville
LSU Tigers
7 of 14
Les Miles nearly got shown the door at LSU at the end of last season, which makes this a critical year for the "Mad Hatter."
Luckily for Miles, several draft-eligible stars bucked the trend in Baton Rouge and returned to school, including defensive lineman Lewis Neal, linebacker Kendell Beckwith and cornerback Tre'Davious White. The arrival of new defensive coordinator Dave Aranda should help the defense be even more consistent, and there's some guy named Leonard Fournette who led the nation in rushing yards per game last year with 162.75.
But Fournette can't do it himself.
Teams limited him last year and forced quarterback Brandon Harris to win games—something he couldn't do versus Alabama, Ole Miss and Arkansas in November 2015.
The problem with the offense is more a philosophical problem that starts at the top rather than a quarterback issue. Miles hasn't evolved with the game of football fast enough and fails to attempt to produce offenses that can get into and win shootouts consistently when necessary.
Did last year's close call for his job serve as a wake-up call? We'll find out this year against a schedule that is incredibly tough.
Optimistic: 12-0 (8-0 SEC), SEC West champions, SEC champions, College Football Playoff berth
Pessimistic: 6-6 (2-6 or 3-5 SEC) with losses to Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama, Texas A&M and either Arkansas or Wisconsin
Realistic: 8-4 (4-4 SEC) with losses to Auburn, Florida, Alabama and Texas A&M
Mississippi State Bulldogs
8 of 14
The post-Dak Prescott era will begin in Starkville on Sept. 3, when Mississippi State will host South Alabama and try to prove to the world it can stay competitive in the SEC West even without the best player in program history.
Can head coach Dan Mullen do it?
The presence of wide receiver Fred Ross will help stabilize the offense and ease the transition for the new quarterback. That new quarterback will be the subject of a ton of intrigue, but the truth of the matter is Mullen can find a way to make it work whether it's Damien Williams, Nick Fitzgerald, Elijah Staley or Nick Tiano.
Defensively, Johnathan Calvin looked solid at defensive end in the spring game. Former hot-shot recruit Leo Lewis did as well after redshirting last year and should add some punch to a linebacking corps led by Richie Brown. But newcomers on the roster and an entirely new defensive coaching staff make the defense a big question in Starkville.
A navigable nonconference schedule and easy cross-division slate that includes South Carolina and Kentucky should land Mississippi State in a bowl game, with the chance for more if it can spring an upset or two.
Optimistic: 10-2 (6-2 SEC) with losses to Alabama and Ole Miss
Pessimistic: 6-6 (3-5 SEC) with losses to LSU, Auburn, BYU, Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss
Realistic: 7-5 (3-5 SEC) with losses to LSU, Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss
Missouri Tigers
9 of 14
First-year Missouri head coach Barry Odom has one primary job in 2016: Get first downs.
Missouri was next-level bad in 2015 offensively, when it averaged just 15.1 first downs per game—the third-worst mark in the country, according to CFBStats.com.
Quarterback Drew Lock was thrown into the fire after Maty Mauk struggled and was eventually suspended, the wide receiving corps let him down, the running game was unstable, and the play-calling was vanilla.
Will that change with Odom and offensive coordinator Josh Heupel in town? It should be better, and the level in which it improves will determine if the Tigers make a bowl game.
Defensively, the line is loaded with stars including Charles Harris, Terry Beckner and potentially Harold Brantley, who missed last year with injuries suffered in a car accident. The defense will keep Missouri in games. It'll be up to the offense to capitalize.
Optimistic: 7-5 (3-5 SEC) with losses to Georgia, LSU, Florida, Tennessee and Arkansas
Pessimistic: 2-10 (0-8 SEC) with losses to West Virginia, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Middle Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Arkansas
Realistic: 3-9 (0-8 SEC) with losses to West Virginia, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Arkansas
Ole Miss Rebels
10 of 14
Ole Miss lost several stars last year, including offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche and wide receiver Laquon Treadwell.
But back are quarterback Chad Kelly and a loaded receiving corps that doesn't have a true No. 1 but a bunch of talented No. 2 receivers who can make up for Treadwell's production. Also returning are a loaded defensive front that includes Breeland Speaks and Marquis Haynes and a secondary that includes former hot-shot prospect Tony Conner.
Will Ole Miss take another step forward—as has been the case in each of head coach Hugh Freeze's four years in Oxford—and win the West? Will the loss of stars, coupled with offensive line issues, force a step back? Will the NCAA investigation create a distraction?
The ceiling for Ole Miss is as high as it has ever been, but the floor could be as low as it has been since Freeze's first year in town.
Optimistic: 11-1 (8-0 SEC) with a loss to Florida State, SEC West champions, SEC champions, College Football Playoff berth
Pessimistic: 6-6 (3-5 SEC) with losses to Florida State, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn and either Arkansas, Texas A&M or Mississippi State
Realistic: 9-3 (6-2 SEC) with losses to Florida State, Alabama and LSU
South Carolina Gamecocks
11 of 14
Will Muschamp's first season at South Carolina might be a struggle, but the future is bright based on the recruiting ability of Muschamp and his staff.
"We've got a bunch of unknowns. Everybody has them at this point in time," Muschamp said on the post-spring teleconference in May. "We got to have those things answered through the summer and fall camp. And if we're able to stay healthy, because we are paper thin in a lot of positions on our football team. But I do feel like we've got some ability."
That "ability" includes true freshman early-enrollee quarterback Brandon McIlwain and fellow newcomer Bryan Edwards at wide receiver. The duo could start right out of the gate and set the tone for Muschamp's Gamecocks program.
But there will be speed bumps along the way, and the loss of star linebacker Skai Moore for the season due to a neck injury will hurt a defense that doesn't exactly have many stable pieces heading into the season.
Optimistic: 7-5 (4-4 SEC) with losses to Texas A&M, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida and Clemson
Pessimistic: 3-9 (0-8 SEC) with losses to Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, Florida and Clemson
Realistic: 5-7 (2-6 SEC) with losses to Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida and Clemson
Tennessee Volunteers
12 of 14
All signs point toward Tennessee becoming a national player for the first time since 2007, when it last won the SEC East and played eventual national champion LSU in the SEC Championship Game.
With quarterback Joshua Dobbs, running backs Alvin Kamara and Jalen Hurd, an experienced offensive line, a stellar defensive front that features Derek Barnett, stud linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin and star corner Cam Sutton back, the hype makes sense.
But can Dobbs establish a threat in the passing game? That's the one thing holding Tennessee back, and Dobbs will have to find some way to take the pressure off the multidimensional passing game with receivers like Preston Williams, Jeff George, Josh Malone and others.
The schedule sends Florida and Alabama to Rocky Top and downgrades in Power Five out-of-conference foe from Oklahoma last year to Virginia Tech this year.
Optimistic: 12-0 (8-0 SEC), SEC East champions, SEC champions, College Football Playoff berth
Pessimistic: 8-4 (4-4 SEC) with losses to Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M and Alabama
Realistic: 11-1 (7-1 SEC) with an upset loss at Georgia, an upset win over Alabama, SEC East champion, chance at the SEC title and a College Football Playoff berth in the SEC Championship Game
Texas A&M Aggies
13 of 14
It's a big year for Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin, who enters 2016 on one of the hottest seats in America.
But a defense that features ends Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, tackle Daylon Mack, linebacker Otaro Alaka and safety Armani Watts should be better and more consistent than it was last year.
Can the offense keep up? Former Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight's presence in College Station should help, as should the arrival of new offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone and his power/spread attack that thrives with tempo.
The schedule is tough and features games versus UCLA, at Auburn and versus Arkansas in September that could set the tone for the entire season.
The talent is there for the Aggies to contend for the West. But if things go south, it could go all the way to Antarctica.
Optimistic: 11-1 (7-1 SEC) with a loss to Alabama
Pessimistic: 5-7 (2-6 SEC) with losses to UCLA, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and two out of a group that consists of LSU, Auburn and Arkansas
Realistic: 8-4 (4-4 SEC) with losses to Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi State (in an upset) and Ole Miss
Vanderbilt Commodores
14 of 14
Get used to the idea of Vanderbilt making a bowl game for the first time since 2013, because it is a legitimate possibility in 2016.
With a 1,000-yard running back in Ralph Webb and a fantastic situational defense led by linebacker Zach Cunningham that thrives in preventing red-zone touchdowns (fourth in the country in 2015) and third-down conversions (sixth), according to CFBStats.com, all Vandy needs is a little bit of a threat in the passing game to be the SEC East's biggest spoiler.
Can quarterback Kyle Shurmur become that guy? Who will step up as a legitimate downfield threat? Can the offensive line give Shurmur enough time to find him?
The defense will keep Vandy in mostly every game. If it finds another offensive dimension, it will make a bowl and spring an upset or two that could determine the outcome of the SEC East race.
Optimistic: 9-3 (5-3 SEC) with losses to Ole Miss, Tennessee and either Florida or Georgia
Pessimistic: 3-9 (1-7 SEC) with losses to Georgia Tech, Western Kentucky, Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and two out of a group consisting of South Carolina, Kentucky and Missouri
Realistic: 6-6 (3-5 SEC) with losses to Georgia Tech, Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Ole Miss and Tennessee
Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted. Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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