Ranking College Football's 25 Hardest Schedules for 2016
A college football team's chances for success are based mostly on the players it has, the coaching those players get and how those things come together in on-field performance. If all goes as planned, it shouldn't matter who is on the schedule because great teams can handle any challenge.
But who are we fooling? A manageable schedule makes it easier to navigate the season, while tougher slates offer plenty of challenging pitfalls.
Last week, we identified teams whose 2016 schedules set up well for a playoff run, yet some of those slates are still pretty difficult. Do any of them rank among the 25 hardest for next season? Follow along as we list the toughest upcoming slates based on record, bowl opponents and overall makeup of the schedule.
25. SMU
1 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 87-58
2015 bowl opponents: 8 (5 home, 3 road)
The American Athletic Conference was by far the best non-power league in college football in 2015, the home to Houston, Memphis, Navy, South Florida and Temple. It's also where SMU is trying to rebuild under coach Chad Morris, but having to play all five of those mid-major juggernauts doesn't help with this process.
The Mustangs' hopes of making a significant leap in performance this season won't be aided much by the nonconference slate, either. Sure, there are 1-11 North Texas and FCS Liberty, but there are also Big 12 powers Baylor and TCU.
Combined with the foes it will face in the American, SMU earns the dubious honor of having the most difficult schedule of any non-power-conference team in 2016.
24. Michigan State
2 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 86-54
2015 bowl opponents: 8 (5 home, 3 road)
The Big Ten is in the midst of a scheduling overhaul, increasing its league games from eight to nine while also requiring every team to play a power opponent in nonconference play and banning future matchups with FCS schools. Michigan State will be late to the party on the last mandate, since it had a contract in place against Furman for 2016.
To make up for it, the Spartans have doubled down on the power-foe requirement by taking on top independents BYU and Notre Dame. They visit the Fighting Irish on Sept. 17 and host BYU on Oct. 8.
Those non-league clashes help beef up a Big Ten slate that is challenging but not particularly arduous. It's also loaded with the toughest matchups at home, with Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan and Ohio State all coming to East Lansing.
23. Pittsburgh
3 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 86-57
2015 bowl opponents: 8 (4 home, 4 away)
It's bad enough that Pittsburgh plays on the deeper side of the ACC, but the league schedule-maker did the Panthers no favors in 2015 by giving them a trip to Clemson as one of their divisional crossover games. The conference slate alone will make it tough for Pitt to match last year's eight victories, tied for the most since 2010, but then there's the non-league lineup.
Not counting the opener against FCS Villanova, Pitt plays Penn State, Oklahoma State (on the road) and Marshall during the first five weeks. And in between OK State and Marshall is a visit to North Carolina, the defending ACC Coastal champions.
The Clemson trip is in mid-November, a week after going to Miami, giving the Panthers a pair of arduous two-game trips this season.
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22. California
4 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 90-67
2015 bowl opponents: 9 (5 home, 4 away)
California will get a jump on the 2016 season by facing Hawaii in Australia on Aug. 27. It will then get two weeks to recover before heading into the first of two arduous stretches that will make replicating what it accomplished a year ago quite difficult.
The Golden Bears play their second game at Mountain West champ San Diego State, which comes into this season with a 10-game winning streak. That's followed by a visit from a desperate Texas team before the Pac-12 slate opens with games against Arizona State and Utah.
Cal's second half is even tougher, with all six opponents coming off bowl games. It starts with Oregon and USC in a six-day span, the latter on the road, and finishes with in-state rivals Stanford and UCLA.
21. Rutgers
5 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 87-56
2015 bowl opponents: 9 (5 home, 4 road)
Rutgers plays seven home games and doesn't spend more than a week at a time on the road in 2015. Still, many of the Scarlet Knights' journeys outside of New Jersey are going to be lengthy in distance and probably just as painful.
First-year coach Chris Ash must visit Pac-12 dark horse Washington to open the season, the second time in three years Rutgers has played in Seattle. In October, he'll visit his former employer, Ohio State, where he held the Knights to a combined 24 points in two meetings as co-defensive coordinator in 2014-15.
And, in November, there's a trip to Michigan State, where Rutgers lost 45-3 two years ago with a team that won eight games.
20. Oregon State
6 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 87-56
2015 bowl opponents: 10 (6 home, 4 road)
Gary Andersen had his reasons for leaving the comfort of a consistent winner at Wisconsin after two seasons to do his own thing at Oregon State. Maybe he likes the challenge of having almost every game on the schedule be an almost certain loss, as it was in 2015 and could be again this season.
The Beavers' only two opponents who didn't play in the postseason last year are FCS Idaho State and Colorado, who they lost to at home a season ago. Those games come at the beginning of 11 straight weeks of play, with the final eight opponents sporting a combined 70-35 record.
Oregon State has lost 11 straight Pac-12 games, and unless it wins that opener at Colorado, the streak may reach 20 before season's end.
19. Georgia Tech
7 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 86-57
2015 bowl opponents: 8 (4 home, 4 road)
Georgia Tech is coming off its worst season in more than two decades, a 3-9 performance that included six losses by eight or fewer points but somehow also a win over Florida State. The Yellow Jackets haven't had consecutive losing years since 1993-94, but that's the reality they're facing with the schedule they have on tap.
A 3-0 start is possible, assuming Tech can beat Boston College in Ireland and also handle an improving Vanderbilt team at home, but then things get tougher. A lot tougher, with seven straight games against 2015 bowl teams.
Four of the first five are at home, but that's against Clemson, Miami (Florida) and Duke, as well as dangerous Sun Belt team Georgia Southern. Tech also must face bowl teams in all four of its true road games, including North Carolina and Georgia in November.
18. Kansas
8 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 88-53
2015 bowl opponents: 9 (3 home, 6 road)
Kansas will enter the 2016 season on a nationally worst 15-game losing streak, and if the skid doesn't come to an end during the first two weeks, it might stay intact until November.
The Jayhawks have winnable games at home against FCS Rhode Island (which was 1-10 a year ago) and Ohio, but after that, there's not much to get excited about—unless you're a fan of failure, which Kansas' next seven games should lead to plenty of.
Five of its seven road games come in this span, all against bowl teams from a year ago, and the home matchups (TCU, Oklahoma State) aren't much easier.
17. Texas
9 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 89-64
2015 bowl opponents: 9 (4 home, 4 road, 1 neutral)
Charlie Strong landed another strong recruiting class earlier this month, but now in his third season on the job, he's going to have to start producing on the field. The schedule he's been given this fall will provide plenty of opportunities for growth but also numerous momentum-sapping pitfalls.
It all starts with a big opener against Notre Dame, a team that humbled his Longhorns to start 2015. Two weeks later, they visit California, but the Golden Bears won't have quarterback Jared Goff tearing apart the secondary.
Then comes a tough two-step to begin Big 12 play, first at Oklahoma State and then the annual Red River Shootout tilt with Oklahoma in Dallas. Get through that, and the rest of the schedule is navigable, with the toughest games at home.
Texas will host Baylor, West Virginia and TCU over the final five weeks, with Texas Tech serving as the only road opponent with a winning record from 2015 after Oct. 1.
16. Oklahoma
10 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 87-67
2015 bowl opponents: 8 (4 home, 3 road, 1 neutral)
Oklahoma's back-loaded Big 12 schedule enabled it to overcome an early loss to Texas and still get into the playoffs in 2015. This time around, the Sooners won't have that luxury, which makes being able to emerge from one of the toughest opening stretches in the country critical to their postseason hopes.
Three of Oklahoma's first four opponents won at least 10 games a year ago, and only one of those games will be in Norman. That's against Ohio State, a barnburner of a Week 3 game but just part of its stringent early slate.
Oklahoma opens against "Group of Five" champion Houston, which was 13-1 a year ago and knocked off Florida State, Louisville and Vanderbilt along the way. The game is being played in NRG Stadium, home of the Houston Texans but also where the Cougars called home for several seasons before an on-campus facility opened in 2014.
The third part of the opening gauntlet is the Big 12 opener, Oct. 1 at TCU, and that comes a week before taking on Texas in the Red River Shootout.
15. Colorado
11 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 88-56
2015 bowl opponents: 10 (4 home, 5 road, 1 away)
Colorado has finished last in the Pac-12's South Division each of the past four seasons, but in 2015, it showed enough progress to warrant bringing Mike MacIntyre back for another year. The Buffaloes' upcoming schedule doesn't lend itself to much further improvement or to MacIntyre getting a fifth season in Boulder.
The Oct. 1 visit from Oregon State might be all that keeps Colorado from going winless in the league for the second time in three years, though after having played at Michigan and Oregon the two weeks prior, it might be too beaten down to handle that winnable contest. And any momentum it could gain from the OSU game won't last, since two of the next three are at division champs USC and Stanford.
Colorado's "easiest" month comes at the end, but that's still a relative term. It finishes with three of four at home, albeit against UCLA, Washington State and Utah.
14. Florida State
12 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 86-58
2015 bowl opponents: 8 (3 home, 4 road, 1 neutral)
Jimbo Fisher took over for Bobby Bowden as head coach in 2010, and since then, he's 38-4 in games played at Doak Walker Stadium. But this season will mark the first time in Fisher's tenure that he doesn't get seven home games, as the Seminoles will play half of their nonconference games elsewhere in the state.
That starts with a Labor Day tilt against Ole Miss in Orlando and is followed three weeks later by a visit to Tampa to take on a rising South Florida program. In between, the 'Noles will also play at Louisville, who figure to challenge FSU and Clemson for the ACC's Atlantic Division title.
FSU plays four of its first six away from home, with an October trip to Miami in there as well, and one of its two home games in the opening half is against Coastal champ North Carolina.
The biggest home games, though, come in the second half. ACC champ Clemson comes to Tallahassee on Oct. 29, and SEC East winner Florida will be in town on Nov. 26.
13. Iowa State
13 of 25
Combined record of FBS opponents: 86-56
2015 bowl opponents: 9 (6 home, 3 road)
Matt Campbell brings a new level of energy to Iowa State after his successful run at Toledo, and his new team is going to need all the help it can get against a rigorous 2016 schedule.
The Cyclones play four of their first six games against teams that won at least 10 games a year ago, with three of those on the road. Their annual clash with Iowa is on the road, a week before opening Big 12 play at TCU, and the first two weeks of October see them host Baylor and then visit Oklahoma State.
If ISU isn't beaten down by that opening half, any confidence it gains early on could pay off with some wins down the stretch. Four of its last five are at home, the only road game at winless Kansas, and in November, it hosts Oklahoma, Texas Tech and West Virginia.
12. Notre Dame
14 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 98-65
2015 bowl opponents: 9 (6 home, 2 road, 1 neutral)
Based on how its opponents fared last season, Notre Dame is facing a tougher overall schedule in 2016. Then again, the Fighting Irish expected Texas, Georgia Tech and Boston College to be a little better a year ago, so how the upcoming lineup will end up being is anyone's guess.
Still, on paper, the Irish have a slate that should provide enough quality competition to please the playoff selection committee but at the same time provide favorable winning conditions. The toughest non-home game won't come until the end, when they visit USC on Thanksgiving weekend, while the opener at Texas will be difficult more for the atmosphere than the competition.
Notre Dame's other trips are to New Jersey to face Syracuse, followed a week later by a visit to North Carolina State, and in November, it has consecutive games in Jacksonville (versus Navy) and San Antonio (versus Army).
The home slate is stronger overall, though the toughest games are spread out. Michigan State comes to South Bend in September, with Stanford and Miami (Florida) showing up in October but with a bye in between.
11. Illinois
15 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 91-54
2015 bowl opponents: 9 (5 home, 4 road)
It wasn't exactly a big vote of confidence when Illinois removed the interim tag from coach Bill Cubit in November yet only rewarded him with a two-year contract. At the time, the school indicated the short deal was done so that whoever it hires as permanent athletic director—a position that remains vacant—can "evaluate the program at his or her own schedule and make decisions based on those evaluations," according to USA Today.
The schedule Cubit will face in his first full season as coach probably had something to do with it, too.
The Fighting Illini have the toughest slate of any team that failed to go bowling in 2015, even with seven home games on the docket. That includes visits from three schools (North Carolina, Michigan State and Iowa) that won 11 or more games a year ago.
Illinois' road schedule isn't much easier, particularly on the back end when it travels to Michigan, Wisconsin and Northwestern.
10. Arkansas
16 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 95-48
2015 bowl opponents: 9 (5 home, 3 road, 1 neutral)
Like every other team from the SEC West, there's no shortage of tough opponents to deal with on the 2016 schedule. Yet Arkansas' most difficult league games are all at home, with Alabama, Florida, LSU and Ole Miss all coming to Fayetteville this fall.
The trade-off for that, though, is the Razorbacks will be taking on that quartet during a six-week span from Oct. 8 to Nov. 12 that will define their season. They face Alabama and Ole Miss in consecutive weeks in mid-October. They then go to Auburn and get a week off before welcoming Florida and LSU back to back in November.
Arkansas' most difficult non-home game will come early on and won't count toward the league standings, as it visits TCU on Sept. 10. That's one of two trips that month to Texas, as it will open SEC play on Sept. 24 against Texas A&M in Arlington.
9. Northwestern
17 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 87-56
2015 bowl opponents: 9 (5 home, 4 road)
Northwestern was one of 20 teams from power conferences to win at least 10 games last season, edging Stanford and Wisconsin along the way. What stood out most for the Wildcats during that run was how badly they looked in losses, falling by a combined 107 points to Iowa, Michigan and Tennessee.
There will be plenty of opportunities to pick up big wins (and avoid lopsided losses) on the 2016 slate, particularly when it comes to the teams Northwestern will be playing in the Big Ten on the road. It must travel to Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State, a trio that went a combined 36-5 a year ago, facing them all in October.
Northwestern's home lineup isn't as daunting, but it still has challenges. Rising Mid-American power Western Michigan comes to Evanston at the start of a four-game season-opening homestand that also includes a visit from Duke, while the Wildcats will host Wisconsin in November.
8. Alabama
18 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 88-54
2015 bowl opponents: 9 (4 home, 4 road, 1 neutral)
Alabama's path to a third consecutive playoff appearance will be determined on the road, as the five teams it is set to face this season outside of Tuscaloosa combined to go 44-21 overall in 2015 with a 4-1 bowl record. The only only bowl loser in that group is USC, whom the Crimson Tide begin their national title defense against on Sept. 3 in Arlington, Texas.
The Tide's other road games are against Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU, with Arkansas and Tennessee coming in consecutive weeks in October. 'Bama didn't have any two-game road swings in 2015 but had a pair during the 2014 season.
Compared to what it will face on the road this fall, the home slate is relatively pedestrian. Conference USA champ Western Kentucky, 'Bama's home opener, is the only opponent coming to Tuscaloosa that won more than nine games last year.
7. LSU
19 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 95-50
2015 bowl opponents: 9 (4 home, 4 road, 1 neutral)
For a schedule that features more bowl opponents away from home than in Death Valley, LSU's 2016 lineup isn't so bad when you break it down. In fact, it might set up well for a push not just to win the SEC's West Division but also keep the Tigers in contention for a playoff bid.
"This is as favorable as you're going to get in the SEC West," Bleacher Report's Justin Ferguson wrote.
The toughest section comes in late October and early November, when LSU will play Ole Miss, Alabama and Arkansas in succession. However, the first two are at home and separated by a well-timed bye week, though after what should be another slugfest with Alabama, the Tigers could be limping into a minefield by going to Arkansas a week later.
Otherwise, the rest of LSU's tough games are spaced out throughout the lineup. There's also the challenging opener against Wisconsin, to be played at the home of the Green Bay Packers, but don't forget the Tigers have won a record 52 straight regular-season nonconference games.
6. Ohio State
20 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 95-61
2015 bowl opponents: 10 (6 home, 4 road)
Ohio State's schedules during the run to a national title in 2014 and last year's title defense were universally panned for their lack of quality competition. Much of that wasn't the Buckeyes' fault, since they had little control over who they faced in the Big Ten or how good those teams were.
The Big Ten's strong 2015 performance will help set aside such talk when looking at what OSU faces this time around, particularly when it comes to its crossover games. Instead of Illinois and Minnesota, it will take on Nebraska, Northwestern and Wisconsin, the latter on the road (and a week before visiting Penn State).
OSU also hits the road to face half of the teams that played in last year's national semifinals, visiting Oklahoma on Sept. 17 and traveling to Michigan State on Nov. 19.
The Oklahoma game is the best of the bunch for out-of-league play, but the other two aren't too shabby, either. Bowling Green and Tulsa both played in bowls in 2015, and each will test OSU's retooled defense with uptempo attacks that averaged more than 80 snaps per game last season.
5. Auburn
21 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 97-48
2015 bowl opponents: 9 (5 home, 4 road)
Auburn has the luxury of playing its first five games next season on the Plains, but that doesn't make some of those contests any less difficult. And after going 3-4 at Jordan-Hare Stadium in 2015, the location of the game doesn't mean as much for the Tigers as the strength of the opponent.
And they open with a doozy of a foe, hosting national title runner-up Clemson to get things started. That's followed by Sun Belt champion Arkansas State, coach Gus Malzahn's old school, before SEC play begins with visits from Texas A&M and LSU.
The Tigers' road slate is even more challenging, with Mississippi State—their first away opponent, on Oct. 8—being the only foe that didn't reach 10 wins last season. Their last three road games are against Ole Miss and Georgia, and the Iron Bowl clash with Alabama, with only home tilts against Vanderbilt and an FCS school wedged in between.
4. BYU
22 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 89-53
2015 bowl opponents: 10 (4 home, 4 road, 2 neutral)
If you're looking for reasons why Bronco Mendenhall bolted for the Virginia job in December, start and end with the schedule his bosses put together for 2016.
Most power conferences are counting the Cougars as a qualifying opponent for their scheduling purposes, which is great for the program's reputation but might not translate into results. It might also mean BYU's contract to play in the Poinsettia Bowl this winter if it is eligible could get nullified.
BYU's first seven games include six against power opponents, and only two of those are at home. UCLA and Mississippi State come to Provo during that stretch, as well as Mid-American power Toledo, while the Cougars visit Utah and Michigan State while facing Arizona in the Phoenix area and take on West Virginia outside Washington, D.C.
Only three of BYU's first nine games are at home, as it also travels to Boise State and Cincinnati, and going 3-6 will be a major accomplishment—one that will be rewarded with a breeze of a stretch run with home games against Southern Utah, Massachusetts and Utah State.
3. Wisconsin
23 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 98-57
2015 bowl opponents: 10 (5 home, 4 road, 1 neutral)
Wisconsin won the Big Ten crossover lottery in 2015, drawing East Division dregs Maryland and Rutgers. The tax bill has come for that windfall, as this season, the Badgers will play the three big boys from the other side of the conference and do so right from the outset.
The Badgers open the Big Ten in late September with trips to Michigan State and Michigan; then, after a bye, they get Ohio State at home. To make matters worse, they follow that up with arguably the three toughest opponents from the West Division with two of those on the road. Wisconsin goes to Iowa, hosts Nebraska and then visits Northwestern.
That six-game run through the middle of 2016 completely overshadows a solid nonconference lineup, starting with the return game against LSU that will be played in Green Bay. Wisconsin lost to the Tigers in Houston to open the 2014 season.
2. Ole Miss
24 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 97-46
2015 bowl opponents: 10 (6 home, 3 road, 1 neutral)
Ole Miss is coming off its first 10-win season since 2003 and must replace some major impact players from that squad. It signed a strong recruiting class, one that includes some prospects who should step right in and contribute, which is a good thing since the Rebels are going to need all the help they can get to navigate the toughest 2016 schedule of any SEC school.
The difficulty starts right away with the opening game against Florida State in Orlando on Labor Day, and less than two weeks later, the SEC schedule begins with a bang. Two, actually, as Ole Miss opens by hosting Alabama and Georgia.
The Rebels later play four of six on the road, starting with consecutive games at Arkansas and LSU, and later going to Texas A&M and Vanderbilt in back-to-back weeks.
Even the non-league games scattered throughout the SEC slate should be tough but manageable. Memphis visits Oxford on Oct. 1, right after the Alabama/Georgia games, while Georgia Southern and its dangerous option attack come to town in early November just before Ole Miss has its second two-game road trip.
1. USC
25 of 25
Combined 2015 record of FBS opponents: 101-58
2015 bowl opponents: 11 (5 home, 5 road, 1 neutral)
It's a good thing for Clay Helton that USC didn't choose to keep his interim tag intact for the 2016 season, because the lineup he and his team will face this year isn't the kind you want as part of the audition.
The Trojans are set to face more teams that appeared in bowl games last season than any other team in the country, and only because Colorado is on the schedule as a Pac-12 South Division opponent. The Buffaloes went 4-9 in 2015, while every other USC foe had at least six wins and four reached double digits.
The Pac-12 had 10 bowl teams a year ago, and USC will be playing eight of them, including in all four of its division crossover games. Additionally, all three non-league foes went bowling, most notably defending national champion Alabama, whom the Trojans will face to start 2016 in Arlington, Texas.
That's just the start of an opening gauntlet that could likely put USC at 1-3, as after hosting Utah State, it opens league play with games at Stanford and Utah. The finish is almost as tough, playing at Washington and UCLA before hosting Notre Dame.
Scheduling information courtesy of FBSSchedules.com.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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