10 College Football Teams Whose Schedules Best Set Up for Playoff Run in 2016
While strength of schedule has been a major source of debate in the first two years of the College Football Playoff era, the schedule itself can have a tremendous impact on who makes the final four.
How a schedule is set up—the spacing of the tough games, the locations of the matchups and the timing of the conference gauntlets—is often overlooked when separating the contenders from the pretenders.
How many teams have had strong title hopes for most of the season only to have their dreams dashed in a brutal month of November? How many eventual champions took advantage of favorable schedules that had their biggest games at their home stadiums?
Here are 10 college football teams whose schedules are best set up for a playoff run in 2016. These selections are based on the combined 2015 record of their FBS opponents, the locations of their key games and how their challenging matchups are spaced out over the course of the schedule.
Not all of these teams are early front-runners for the national championship, but the way their games are laid out could turn them into contenders later this fall. Based on what's coming their way in 2016, they have opportunities to take full advantage like Clemson and Iowa did last season.
Which Power Five contender do you think has the most favorable schedule for this upcoming season? Sound off in the comments below.
Baylor
1 of 10
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 68-70
Key home games: Oklahoma State (Sept. 24), TCU (Nov. 5)
Key road games: Oklahoma (Nov. 12), West Virginia (Dec. 3)
Neutral-site game: Texas Tech (Nov. 25)
Once again, Baylor's nonconference schedule is extremely soft—Chris Low of ESPN.com ranked it as the weakest in all of college football for the 2016 season. The trio of FCS school Northwestern State, SMU and Rice combined for an 11-24 record last year, and the Bears will get to ease into things with their newly rebuilt offensive and defensive fronts.
Baylor's Big 12 slate in 2016 doesn't look overwhelming, either. The conference doesn't have the murderers' row month of November that derailed a banged-up Baylor team's title hopes, and the tests are spread out fairly well for the Bears. (Except for the fact its two bye weeks come on each end of a home game against Kansas.)
Art Briles' team gets both Oklahoma State and TCU at home this year, and the trip to Oklahoma right after the revenge showdown with the Horned Frogs is the only daunting road test in store for the Bears. If Baylor can knock off Oklahoma in Norman, it'll have an easier finish than 2015 with games against Kansas State, Texas Tech and West Virginia.
Baylor won't have much room for error in the playoff race thanks to its mind-numbingly easy nonconference schedule and the timing of its game at Oklahoma. But the Bears are built to hang a bunch of points on almost everybody, and they could be in an unstoppable groove by the time they hit the thick of their Big 12 slate.
Clemson
2 of 10
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 60-76
Key home games: Louisville (Oct. 1), NC State (Oct. 15), Pittsburgh (Nov. 12)
Key road games: Auburn (Sept. 3), Florida State (Oct. 29)
The outlook on Clemson's schedule in 2015 was quite favorable even before the Tigers began their undefeated run to the national championship game. Clemson's toughest tests were at home, and Georgia Tech was nowhere near the dark-horse contender it was hoped to be.
This year, a loaded Clemson team has to start the season at Auburn, which is coming off a lackluster 7-6 season, and later head down to Florida State to face the Seminoles. (Both Clemson and Florida State will have bye weeks before that matchup of national title contenders.)
That's basically it for road tests on Clemson's schedule—although the Tigers are 0-3 under Dabo Swinney when playing at Georgia Tech, as Dan Wolken of USA Today noted. The Yellow Jackets are one of six opponents Clemson will face in 2016 that didn't make it to a bowl game last year, and that's not counting FCS school South Carolina State.
Clemson gets bowl teams Louisville, NC State and Pittsburgh at home, and the schedule looks extremely favorable following the all-important road trip to Tallahassee. Another College Football Playoff run looks likely for these talented Tigers.
Georgia
3 of 10
Opponents' combined 2015 record: 71-68
Key home games: Tennessee (Oct. 1), Auburn (Nov. 12)
Key road games: Ole Miss (Sept. 24)
Neutral-site games: North Carolina in Atlanta (Sept. 3) and Florida in Jacksonville (Oct. 29)
Georgia won't be considered a strong College Football Playoff contender at the start of the season, but the Bulldogs have some good opportunities to make statements in their first month of games under Kirby Smart.
The Bulldogs open the season in state at the Chick-fil-A Kickoff against North Carolina, which will offer a stiff early test for Smart's defense. Later that month, they'll face Ole Miss in Oxford—the only true road game against a team that went bowling in 2015.
The next weekend, Georgia hosts presumed SEC East favorite Tennessee in Athens. If the Bulldogs can get off to a hot start in September, that game against Tennessee could catapult them into the championship conversation. They have an off week before the annual matchup against Florida in Jacksonville, and they'll be eyeing big-time revenge at EverBank Field.
Georgia gets Auburn, UL-Lafayette and Georgia Tech at home to end the season, which could be crucial to keeping its playoff hopes alive heading into the SEC Championship Game back in Atlanta. Several key areas on the depth chart would have to click in order for the Bulldogs to make a run at a playoff in Smart's first season, but their schedule won't be a massive obstacle.
Iowa
4 of 10
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 66-72
Key home games: Northwestern (Oct. 1), Wisconsin (Oct. 22), Michigan (Nov. 12), Nebraska (Nov. 25)
Key road games: Minnesota (Oct. 8), Penn State (Nov. 5)
Last year, a favorable schedule helped Iowa get to the Big Ten Championship Game with an undefeated record. While the Hawkeyes' 2016 slate isn't as easy as the one they had last season, it wouldn't be surprising to see Iowa go on a similar surge through its schedule this fall.
Iowa's nonconference schedule can be easily summed up like this—FCS powerhouse North Dakota State will most likely be the Hawkeyes' toughest matchup. Kirk Ferentz's program gets Miami (Ohio) and Iowa State at home before taking on the Bison, who have been known to knock off Power Five foes in recent years.
The Big Ten schedule sets up well for Iowa in that most of its toughest games are at home and its easier games are on the road. The Hawkeyes pick up powerful Michigan in 2016, but they'll play them in Iowa City. Northwestern and Wisconsin, a pair of 10-win contenders for the Big Ten West, also have to come to Kinnick Stadium.
Iowa's toughest road games this season consist of Minnesota and Penn State, with trips to Rutgers, Purdue and Illinois also on the docket. With the amount of experienced talent Iowa is bringing back in 2016, another push toward the College Football Playoff could be in the cards.
LSU
5 of 10
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 95-50
Key home games: Mississippi State (Sept. 17), Ole Miss (Oct. 22), Alabama (Nov. 5)
Key road games: Auburn (Sept. 24), Florida (Oct. 8), Arkansas (Nov. 12), Texas A&M (Nov. 24)
Neutral-site game: Wisconsin in Green Bay (Sept. 3)
The Bayou Bengals' combined opponent record for 2016 might seem too daunting for them to be on this list, but such is life in the SEC West, a division that had all seven of its members go to bowl games last year.
That combined record is also boosted by Southern Miss, which unexpectedly lost its head coach to the NFL after going 9-5 last season in the Conference USA. (The Tigers also have to play FCS national runner-up Jacksonville State in Week 2.) LSU opens the season with Wisconsin in a virtual road game at famous Lambeau Field, but the Tigers return a lot more talent on both sides of the ball than the Badgers.
What makes LSU's schedule favorable for a potential playoff run is the location of its toughest SEC West opponents. LSU gets both Ole Miss and Alabama at home inside Death Valley, with a bye week between the matchups. The road games are spaced out well, too, with at least one home game between each trip.
It would be incredibly foolish to say LSU has an "easy" schedule in 2016 because of the number of opponents that will most likely be ranked when they face the Tigers. But, with the Tide and the Rebels both coming to Baton Rouge this year, this is as favorable as you're going to get in the SEC West.
Michigan State
6 of 10
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 86-54
Key home games: Wisconsin (Sept. 24), BYU (Oct. 8), Northwestern (Oct. 15), Michigan (Oct. 29), Ohio State (Nov. 26)
Key road games: Notre Dame (Sept. 17), Indiana (Oct. 1), Penn State (Nov. 26)
Michigan State has some major pieces to replace in 2016, but the Spartans couldn't have picked a better Big Ten slate for a potential repeat run to the College Football Playoff.
Sparty opens the season with FCS team Furman before an off week and a trip to Notre Dame, another top-tier team that has to replace several key players as well. A loss that early in the season definitely wouldn't kill the Spartans' dream of returning to the final four, especially with a home-loaded conference slate.
Michigan State's toughest competition in the Big Ten East—rivals Michigan and Ohio State—has to come to Spartan Stadium this fall. The Spartans also get Wisconsin and Northwestern at home, with trips to Indiana and Penn State serving as the only conference road games against bowl teams from 2015. BYU, another quality nonconference foe, comes to East Lansing as well.
The Spartans won't have it easy in 2016, but the layout of the schedule gives them enough chances to impress the playoff committee without things becoming overwhelming. There aren't any murderous back-to-back slots, and Michigan State will get to play plenty of big games in front of its own fans.
North Carolina
7 of 10
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 69-57
Key home games: Pittsburgh (Sept. 24), Virginia Tech (Oct. 8), NC State (Nov. 25)
Key road games: Florida State (Oct. 1), Miami (Oct. 15), Duke (Nov. 10)
Neutral-site game: Georgia in Atlanta (Sept. 3)
North Carolina will look to follow up its strong 2015 season that saw the Tar Heels take Clemson down to the wire in the ACC Championship Game with a favorable 2016 schedule.
Facing Georgia in Atlanta will be a strong test to open the season, and UNC will follow that up the next weekend by playing at Illinois in the second half of a home-and-home agreement. But, just like UNC had last year, two nonconference games should be automatic victories against a pair of FCS opponents.
North Carolina has to travel to Florida State—which will be extremely tough—but it avoids Clemson or Louisville in further cross-divisional play. The Tar Heels travel to both Miami and Duke in matchups that will go a long way in determining the ACC Coastal, and they play Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and NC State at home.
If UNC can continue to improve on defense while still lighting up teams with its big-play offense, then the pieces are in place for another divisional crown in 2016. After a road-heavy October, November looks like the perfect time for the Tar Heels to close the season strong and head back to Charlotte for the ACC title game.
TCU
8 of 10
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 70-69
Key home games: Arkansas (Sept. 10), Oklahoma (Oct. 1), Texas Tech (Oct. 29), Oklahoma State (Nov. 19)
Key road games: West Virginia (Oct. 22), Baylor (Nov. 5)
TCU has to rebuild its offense heading into 2016, but the Horned Frogs have a highly effective scheme in place and an experienced defense reminiscent of earlier glory days under Gary Patterson. The Frogs can also rely on a schedule that will give them chances to turn heads in the comforts of their own home.
After opening with FCS program South Dakota State, TCU hosts Arkansas, which has gotten off to slow starts in the last few seasons. One of TCU's five road games is at lowly SMU, and that matchup follows a Big 12 opener against rebuilding Iowa State.
The Horned Frogs also get to host defending Big 12 champion Oklahoma, a team that has played close games with TCU every year since the Horned Frogs' arrival in the league. TCU also has open dates before and after a trio of tough tests at West Virginia, versus Texas Tech and at Baylor. Patterson's team will then finish the season with home games against Oklahoma State and Kansas State in addition to a trip to Texas.
Most of TCU's biggest tests will come inside Amon G. Carter Stadium this fall, and that bodes well for a team that will have plenty of potential in its new offensive starters. If things click early for the Frogs, they could be legitimate playoff contenders out of the Big 12.
Tennessee
9 of 10
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 85-57
Key home games: Florida (Sept. 24), Alabama (Oct. 15)
Key road games: Georgia (Oct. 1), Texas A&M (Oct. 8)
Neutral-site game: Virginia Tech in Bristol (Sept. 10)
Tennessee will be a trendy SEC championship and possible playoff pick this offseason—and for good reason. The Volunteers return experienced talent at virtually every spot on the depth chart after improving by two wins yet again under Butch Jones in 2015.
The schedule sets up well for a playoff run, too, if the Volunteers can survive a four-week stretch in late September and early October. Nonconference games against Appalachian State, Virginia Tech and Ohio—all within Tennessee state lines—should get the Volunteers geared up for the stretch that begins with Florida and ends with a home game against Alabama.
Tennessee gets both defending SEC division champions, Florida and Alabama at home, and it will also have the experience advantage in road games against Georgia and Texas A&M. If the Vols get through that stretch with their playoff hopes intact, they could coast into Atlanta. Their final five games come against teams that combined for a 21-38 record in 2015.
"Everything is setting up for Tennessee to return to glory, and the lessons Jones learned [in 2015] will help it reach that point," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote last month. "He won't coach scared like he did for the first half of the season; the veterans will learn how to close, and the Vols will prevail in a division that's loaded with questions."
UCLA
10 of 10
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 86-70
Key home games: Stanford (Sept. 24), Arizona (Oct. 1), Utah (Oct. 22), USC (Nov. 19)
Key road games: Texas A&M (Sept. 3), BYU (Sept. 17), Arizona State (Oct. 8), Washington State (Oct. 15), Cal (Nov. 26)
The top-to-bottom quality of the Pac-12 means nearly every member's schedule is loaded with obstacles. But, this season, UCLA appears to have gotten the best luck of the draw in the entire conference.
The Bruins will travel to face Texas A&M and BYU in the first three weeks of the season—chances to pick up some attention-grabbing wins ahead of the Pac-12 grind. UCLA's toughest conference opponents, including defending division champions Stanford and USC, have to come to the Rose Bowl in 2016.
The road tests are all manageable for the Bruins, too, especially considering the question marks at Arizona State and Cal. Playing Utah at home instead of in Salt Lake City will be an added bonus for the Bruins as they look to take a huge step forward in star quarterback Josh Rosen's second season.
UCLA is far from an established playoff contender at this point in the preseason, but it could turn some heads and make a dark-horse-type run with the schedule it has in 2016. The key will be grabbing momentum on the road early against good programs and then carrying it into the Pac-12 slate.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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