Bleacher Report's Ultimate College Football Playoff Preview
And so it begins. On Tuesday night, 12 human beings from various backgrounds will emerge from a secluded bunker—well, a Texas hotel banquet room with coffee—and begin the impossible process of selecting the College Football Playoff.
Good luck.
The task at hand is familiar yet daunting. It is not new but still somehow unfamiliar. In front of a national, rabid audience, Arkansas athletic director and College Football Playoff selection committee chairman Jeff Long will reveal the committee’s first Top 25 of the year after hearty discussions behind closed doors.
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“It creeps up on you, but it is exciting,” Long told Bleacher Report late last week. “The committee members are very excited to start our debates and see where we stand. That first ranking will be an interesting one. I can guarantee that.”
The outrage is coming. That part is a guarantee.
The committee has been given the impossible chore of picking four teams out of a giant pile. That task is made even more difficult because it's early November. The difficulty is amplified even further given a) the presumed lack of dominant teams and b) the now weekly occurrence of games ending in spectacular, history-defying fashion.
The latest example came between Duke and Miami in Week 9. Although these two teams will not garner playoff consideration, it doesn’t make this final Miami touchdown—a collection of laterals, potentially illegal blocks and beautiful desperation—any easier to digest.
This is what the committee is up against. It happens every Saturday, it seems.
“There is a lot of football left to be played,” Long added. “There are a lot of matchups still to happen. There are a few wrinkles. Every year will have its own controversy.”
Oh, indeed. Maybe more than one. With those controversies knocking at the front door, consider this a playoff primer with the initial release suddenly near. (And if you’re a committee looking for a little help in advance , feel free to incorporate the following.)
The Playoff Chalk Until Further Notice: Ohio State
Unless the selection committee throws us a tremendous debut curveball, Ohio State, currently No. 1 in the AP Poll, will be the No. 1 team in its first 2015 rankings. Well, maybe they'll show off the hook and pick a team like Clemson instead. Or perhaps LSU. Either way, the Buckeyes will be in the mix.
J.T. Barrett’s arrest for OVI over the weekend further complicates matters. With that being said, if this is truly a one-game suspension as the school announced, then it really shouldn’t change much. Cardale Jones, despite his struggles, should be able to lead the Buckeyes over Minnesota in Columbus next Saturday. After that, Barrett should be the starting quarterback again. Given the way he’s played recently, it shouldn’t be much of a discussion.
While the Buckeyes looked sloppy throughout much of the early portion of the season—prompting many to question their role as “favorites”—those concerns have cooled in recent weeks with vastly improved play and results.
With games against Michigan State and Michigan still to come, Ohio State has moments to solidify itself as the favorite. For now, through it all, it’s precisely where Urban Meyer’s team will debut. The drama will likely be limited, so we think.
The Easiest Path to the Playoff: Clemson
With all due respect to Florida State, the next opponent on Clemson’s schedule, the Tigers are in a wonderful position—better than any other Power Five team right now.
It wasn’t easy for the AP Poll's No. 3 team in Week 9. The 56-41 win over NC State was a different kind of victory. And even though that rebuilt defense didn’t make the trip, Clemson heads home in lovely shape.
The Tigers look like a lock for a Top Three spot in the selection committee’s initial rankings. There will be no debate if the Tigers win out. They’ll be comfortably in the playoff.
After Florida State, Clemson plays Syracuse, Wake Forest and South Carolina. It could then match up against North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game, which could be a surprising test.
Still, compared to the path many others still have to travel, the Tigers are in business. If they beat Florida State next Saturday, the path clears even more. That's not a guarantee, but others will be envious of the opportunity.
The Complicated Fixture: Baylor
At the moment, it’s really not all that complicated. On Tuesday night, the selection committee will recognize Baylor for its early-season demolition, even with starting quarterback Seth Russell out for the season with a neck injury.
“We will rank Baylor based on what they’ve done with their starting quarterback,” Long said. “We won’t see a game with their backup quarterback until after our first rankings are released. We will rank Baylor on what they’ve done thus far and then adjust.”
The loss of Russell is enormous; there’s no way to sugarcoat it. But having talented freshman Jarrett Stidham as a backup plan certainly nullifies the loss a great deal. While there is much to learn about this young man, there is ample time to see how Baylor responds with a new quarterback.
With such a back-loaded schedule, Baylor, currently No. 2 in the AP Poll, can eliminate all concerns simply by winning more games. If the Bears get past Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU in consecutive weeks, it will not matter. The Big 12’s insane November will do a lot of the committee’s heavy lifting.
The Party Crashers: Iowa and Oklahoma State
Yes, Iowa and Oklahoma State will enter Week 10 undefeated. This is not a drill. It has not always been pretty for either, but it has been effective. The end result of this September and October success will be playoff presence on Tuesday.
Iowa will likely be the higher seed—maybe as high as No. 8—and Oklahoma State won’t be far behind. The Hawkeyes have a far more manageable schedule moving forward. The Pokes play TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor. Action starts next week against the Horned Frogs.
While time will ultimately tell with these teams, the committee’s initial reaction will be telling. How much does brand power matter? Will it be evident Tuesday?
Iowa currently sits No. 10 in the AP Poll; Oklahoma State is not far behind at No. 12.
It will be fascinating to see whether the committee is buying these early surprises out of the gate.
The Sneaky Playoff Contender: Florida
The Gators lost a game and their starting quarterback. At that point, we pretty much decided that we were done with them and moved on. And yet, after clobbering a helpless Georgia team in Week 9, Florida is in a position to keep climbing. Quietly. The Gators are now No. 11 in the AP Poll.
Florida plays Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, FAU and Florida State to close out the regular season before a likely date in the SEC Championship Game. If the Gators were to win these games and then beat LSU, Alabama or Ole Miss to win the conference, would the selection committee really leave out a one-loss SEC champion?
A lot has to happen for this scenario to be realized, although it does exist. Florida will likely be ranked somewhere between No. 10 and No. 12 on Tuesday. Then the climbing begins.
The Group of Five Party: The Little Guys Will Have a Big Say
Ah, we lost one on Saturday night. Well, maybe. Temple’s valiant 24-20 defeat to Notre Dame could very well put the Owls out of the initial ranking. Or, perhaps the close call will be enough for them to debut in the Top 25.
Unlike last year, however, Group of Five teams will be featured prominently in the initial ranking. Last year, it took weeks for a non-Power Five program to appear. This year, it’s a matter of how many and how high.
No. 15 Memphis and No. 18 Houston are locks to make the cut. Toledo, currently at No. 20 in the AP Poll with a game on Tuesday night, is a near lock. Temple, still at No. 23 after its loss, is a definite possibility.
With a win over Ole Miss, the Tigers seem likely to be the first Group of Five team called. Houston, with a convincing win over Vanderbilt in Week 9 and a victory over Louisville earlier, won’t be far behind. It’s worth pointing out that these two teams will play on November 14.
Having a presence is one thing. Making a push for the playoff—something that seemed far-fetched before the season began—is another. Where these teams debut Tuesday could ultimate help dictate how high they climb. Stay tuned.
Doing the Work: Predicting the Selection Committee’s Initial Top Eight
No major surprises. Here’s what I expect the selection committee to reveal Tuesday night. Keep in mind, before you fire off impressive and extensive hate mail, these are predictions of how I believe the committee will react.
(Feel free to send the mail regardless.)
1. Ohio State
2. Baylor
3. Clemson
4. LSU
5. TCU
6. Michigan State
7. Alabama
8. Iowa
How will it shake out? Who will be slighted? Overrated? Underrated?
I don’t need to remind you that the selection committee’s initial rankings mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme. Ohio State debuted at No. 16 last year. It finished a bit higher than that.
With that fully out in the open, don’t let it curb your displeasure or emotion. The season starts now.
Unless noted otherwise, all quotes obtained firsthand.
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