BCS Rankings Week 12: Projecting the Top 25 in the Latest Poll

Three ranked teams have already played this week, so this week’s BCS Top 25 should be slightly easier to predict, but it will still be very hard.

There are a number of games with the potential for upsets, especially in the Big Ten where No. 17 Michigan State plays at Iowa, No. 24 Michigan goes to Illinois and No. 19 Nebraska plays No. 12 Penn State in Happy Valley.

But the biggest question of the week is how far the winner of the game between No. 4 Stanford and No. 7 Oregon will move up.

Let’s break down what the Top 25 will look like on Sunday. Note that the BCS formula uses decimals and the highest a team can get is a 1.00. You can see the detailed Week 11 BCS rankings here.

1. LSU Tigers – vs. Western Kentucky, Win.

2. Oklahoma State Cowboys– at Texas Tech, Win.

LSU and Oklahoma State are the only two teams in the country with over .9 in the BCS, so even if Stanford beats Oregon, they shouldn’t jump into the two-spot.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide– at Mississippi State, Win.

4. Boise State Broncos – vs. TCU, Win

The computers actually like Boise State this year with an average ranking of four. TCU will be considered somewhat of a quality win, but the Broncos will be very close to Oregon.

5. Oregon Ducks – at No. 4 Stanford, Win.

6. Oklahoma Sooners – Bye Week

7. Stanford Cardinal – vs. No. 7 Oregon, Loss.

8. Arkansas Razorbacks – vs. Tennessee, Win.

9. Virginia Tech Hokies – at No. 21 Georgia Tech, Won.

Virginia Tech won at Georgia Tech on Thursday and they’ll move up, but Arkansas has .74 and the Hokies have .59 without the win. It will be close, but Arkansas should edge them out.

10. Clemson Tigers – vs. Wake Forest, Win.

11. Houston Cougars– at Tulane, Won.

With no one dropping out of the Top 10 it will be hard for Case Keenum and crew to climb up when they only have .55.

12. South Carolina Gamecocks– vs. Florida, Win.

13. Georgia Bulldogs– vs. No. 20 Auburn, Win.

With a win over a ranked opponent, Georgia will sneak over Kansas State because they are only separated by just over .01. The voters won't put the Bulldogs over South Carolina because they lost the head-to-head earlier this season.

14. Kansas State Wildcats – vs. Texas A&M, Win.

If the Aggies were ranked, State would move up.

15. Texas Longhorns– at Missouri, Win.

16. Nebraska Cornhuskers – at Penn State, Win.

It might surprise and upset a lot of people, but Nebraska was only .025 behind Wisconsin in the latest poll and the Badgers play lowly Minnesota this week. With a road win against a Top 15 team, Nebraska should move up, but they will be just behind Texas because the Nittany Lions are ranked 16th by the computers.

17. Wisconsin Badgers– at Minnesota, Win.

18. Penn State Nittany Lions– vs. No. 19 Nebraska, Loss.

Most people across the country never bought into Penn State as a good team this year so they should drop hard with a loss. That said, there are a bunch of teams that will lose behind them so they shouldn’t drop out of the Top 20.

19. Cincinnati Bearcats – vs. West Virginia, Win.

Far and away the biggest winner of the week is Cincinnati. With Michigan State, Auburn and Georgia Tech all losing in front of them the Bearcats will automatically get three spots and then jump over Southern Miss because West Virginia is a better win that Central Florida.

20. Southern Miss Golden Eagles– vs. Central Florida, Win.

Once you get out of the Top 20, things begin to get really dicey.

21. Michigan Wolverines – at Illinois, Win.

22. Iowa Hawkeyes – vs. No. 17 Michigan State, Win.

If this team hadn’t lost to Minnesota it would already be ranked but now the Hawkeyes will be competing to jump over two teams they beat. No. 21, 22 and 23 are really a crap-shoot as to who goes where.

23. Michigan State Spartans – at Iowa, Loss.

The Spartans likely get the worst deal out of the three because the computers have them tied with Michigan as of this week so a loss will drop them further. And hopefully the voters put them behind Iowa.

24. Baylor Bears – at Kansas, Win.

25. Auburn Tigers– at No. 15 Georgia, Loss.

It will be close, but Auburn will be the last team in the Top 25 because the computers still have them at No. 15. The next team that would be in is Ohio State followed by Florida State and Georgia Tech.