College Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 8 Picks
Las Vegas oddsmakers are looking over the first release of the BCS standings in disbelief, but it's not because the Boise State Broncos landed in the No. 5 spot.
The top eight teams are an incredible 41-9-1 against the spread through seven weeks, which has many public bettors pondering a career change.
It hasn't been all bad for Sin City, as underdogs are 213-205-5, while the "over" holds a slight 209-205 edge.
Let's take a look at Week 8 from a betting perspective.
UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats
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The UCLA Bruins showed up on my play-on list for the rest of the season, as those teams went 3-1 ATS in Week 7.
Not surprised that the betting odds favored Arizona when coming out, but my handicapper line had the visitor earning that distinction.
Mike Stoops is out in Tuscon, but so are the Wildcats from trying to reach a bowl game.
Rick Neuheisel isn't the "Wizard of Westwood," but still has the job.
Pick: UCLA Bruins (+4)
FIU Golden Panthers at Arkansas State Red Wolves
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I'm a big fan of Florida International head coach Mario Cristobal, but not this week.
This game will go a long way in determining the Sun Belt Conference regular-season champ, giving the edge to an Arkansas State program that is 5-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
Both teams have played solid non-conference schedules, but the Golden Panthers have been overvalued due to last season's heroics.
Pick: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-3)
West Virginia Mountaineers at Syracuse Orange
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Both teams enter off bye weeks, but this is a serious step up in class for the home team.
West Virginia's only loss this year came against the LSU Tigers, who were just sent out as the No. 1 team in the BCS rankings.
The Mountaineers out-gained the Tigers by 167 yards in that contest.
In fact, West Virginia has won the statistical battle in all games this season, while Syracuse has lost the battle in each contest versus lined competition.
Bettors will also find that the Mountaineers are 5-2 ATS as a road favorite of 10.5 or more points, while the Orange are 1-6 ATS as an underdog of that kind.
Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers (-14)
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Missouri Tigers
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I'm actually ecstatic the Oklahoma State Cowboys picked up a 12-point win on the road against the Texas Longhorns, as I've been waiting for this game for weeks.
Missouri found its way on my worth-betting list for the rest of the year, and I'm all-in Saturday.
No need to discuss further.
Turn out the lights, the BCS party is over.
Top pick: Missouri Tigers (+7.5)
Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks
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If you're holding Kansas State stock, it's time to start selling some for a profit.
The Wildcats want no part of this contest, as the party is dead ahead.
Games against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Texas are lined up over the next four weeks.
Who are they playing again?
Pick: Kansas Jayhawks (+12.5)
Arkansas Razorbacks at Mississippi
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It's pretty clear the Southeastern Conference is top heavy this year, with Arkansas sitting behind Alabama and LSU.
Ole Miss has shown little in dropping three conference games, failing to cover each one.
Arkansas doesn't have much on the schedule upcoming, which means head coach Bobby Petrino can crank it up and improve to 4-0 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.
Blowout of the Week: Arkansas Razorbacks (-16.5)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami Hurricanes
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At first, I was ready to make a case for the underdog, but I'm not falling into the oddsmakers' trap.
Sometimes a professional can be blinded by simply backing an unranked favorite, but Miami has enjoyed great success in this series the past two years.
That was with Randy Shannon on the sidelines—not Al Golden.
The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, but the public will be in love with the other side.
Here I am, rock you like a hurricane!
Pick: Miami Hurricanes (-2)
Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers
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I know, I know.
LSU has major revenge from last year's 24-17 defeat to the Auburn Tigers as 5.5-point road underdogs last year.
I know, I know.
The Tigers are No. 1 in the first installment of the BCS standings.
I know, I know.
A bye week looms with Alabama on deck.
Pick: Auburn Tigers (+22.5)
USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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Casual bettors are going to place way too much stock in USC's 43-22 loss to the Arizona State Sun Devils as 2.5-point road underdogs earlier in the year.
How can I say that when the public watched the Trojans destroy Cal on national television?
The Golden Bears are terrible.
With that being said, the Trojans have been a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points just two times since 1992, covering both instances.
Notre Dame is 0-2 ATS as this type of a favorite the last two-plus campaigns.
No thanks, no way.
Pick: USC Trojans (+9)
Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan State Spartans
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The BCS standings can work in mysterious ways for teams—sounds like a U2 song.
Wisconsin will have to defy gravity to make the BCS National Championship Game, as the winner of the Alabama-LSU game is likely in and Oklahoma controls its own destiny.
The casual bettors will think that the Badgers will play with even more motivation—I simply don't think that's the case.
Michigan State is also 14-1 ATS as home underdogs of four points or more when coming off a straight-up victory.
Beating this year's Michigan squad is actually something to be proud of.
It's also important to maintain the fade of the first BCS standings release.
Pick: Michigan State Spartans (+7.5)