BCS Controversy: Predicting College Football's Sixteen Team Playoff

2011's BCS bowl controversy will unveil itself at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, with many college football fans arguing whether Alabama or Oklahoma should top the BCS standings. Fans will also argue whether Michigan and Clemson are overrated.

It's likely that as many as six teams will be undefeated at the end of the season, any of whom could be Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, Stanford, Boise State, Clemson, or Wisconsin. Who will be chosen to play in the BCS National Championship Game at the end of the season if all go undefeated?

Why should there have to be a choice?

For a discussion about the negative impact of the BCS on all schools, BCS and non-BCS, please read the following article, as the argument will not be restated here:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/63596-broken-and-tacitly-unfair-the-bcs-and-antitrust

In the end, it won't matter because only two teams can play in the national championship, the only game based on merit. The other BCS bowls simply fill spots with BCS conference champions. It shouldn't be that way, however.

Each week, we'll analyze the field as if a 16-team playoff existed versus the BCS system that currently exists. On the following pages, you'll find the rules, selections, seedings, and the forecast for the field of 16 as it stands in Week 7. Keep in mind, however, each week creates new drama, so these predictions are fluid.

Playoff Rules

The rules for the playoffs are as follows:

1. Conference champions will automatically qualify for a spot with no more than 12 conference champions allowed. If greater than 12 conferences form, the first 12 conferences in existence get the automatic berths while the other conference champions fall into the at-large rules for independent programs. Currently, 11 conferences exist, leaving 5 at-large bids.
2. Independent institutions will automatically qualify for an at-large spot if they are ranked 12th or higher. Otherwise, they may be considered if they are in the Top 16.
3. The remaining at-large spots shall go to any program ranked in the Top 16 at the discretion of the selection committee, subject to the limitation that no conference shall have more than two programs in the playoffs.
4. Playoff games shall be held in December and January. The first two rounds will be held in December, while the last two rounds will be held in January.
5. The location of playoff games will be determined by round. The first and second round games will be played on the home field of the higher seeded team. The semifinals, consolation, and final games will be held at former BCS bowls on a rotating basis such that each of the four games will be played at either the Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, or Rose Bowl.
6. Teams that do not qualify, or are not selected, for the playoffs shall be available to play in any bowl not mentioned within these rules that select them. No team accepted by the playoffs is allowed to decline the playoff bid or play in any other bowls than those mentioned within these rules. No former BCS bowl mentioned within these rules is allowed to host any other programs other than those that qualify to play by way of this playoff system.
7. Beer shall be served to fans during playoff games.

Projected Automatic Bids & At-Large Bids

As it currently stands, the following teams are projected to win their conferences or are eligible for selection according to the playoff rules. View the next pages to preview the first round matchups between these programs. Then, see how we project the playoffs unfolding.

ACC	Clemson
Big XII	Oklahoma
Big East	West Virginia
Big Ten	Wisconsin
CUSA	SMU
MAC	Toledo
Mtn West	Boise State
Pac-12	Stanford
SEC	Alabama
Sun Belt	Arkansas State
WAC	Nevada

At-Large	LSU
At-Large	Oklahoma State
At-Large	Notre Dame
At-Large	Virginia Tech
At-Large	Oregon

#1 Alabama vs. #16 Arkansas State, Location: Tuscaloosa, Ala.

In the most lopsided contest of the playoffs, the Alabama Crimson Tide shows no mercy to the Arkansas State Red Wolves, who put together a solid drive to start the game, but find it impossible to penetrate Alabama's defense afterwards.

Unable to get open, Arkansas State's receivers find no opportunities and certainly not the end zone. Red Wolves head coach Hugh Freeze wishes his former high school standout Michael Oher had five clones who could stop the Alabama defensive onslaught. With no time to throw the ball, it doesn't matter that Arkansas State's receivers can't get open.

Alabama rests its starters in the fourth quarter and rolls to an easy victory in the first round.

#2 Oklahoma vs. #15 Toledo, Location: Norman, Okla.

Like the Alabama vs. Arkansas State contest, Oklahoma easily defeats Toledo in their opening game victory. 

While Toledo is able to put some points on the board, OU proves too much for the Rockets' passing attack.

Behind the arm of Landry Jones, Oklahoma scores on every drive, while Toledo struggles to match scores with the Sooners, whose defense easily blankets Toledo's receivers.

Oklahoma sails into the second round.

#3 Wisconsin vs. #14 Nevada, Location: Madison, Wisc.

Wisconsin is the most balanced and disciplined team in the playoffs. They train their lineman to be as athletic as their playmakers, which is why they steamroll most opponents with an effective ground game that sets up easy passing situations.

The Nevada game proves no different for the Badgers. Methodically, they work the ball down the field, occasionally breaking a big running play against a Nevada defense that attempts to stop the Badgers with eight in the box. Unless they stop Wisconsin, Nevada knows it doesn't matter how many points its prolific offense scores.

Wisconsin has a fight on its hands in the first half but opens the game in the third quarter for a commanding victory over Nevada.

#4 Stanford vs. #13 SMU, Location: Palo Alto, Calif.

This is 4-seed/13-seed dogfight. While Stanford is a balanced team that loves its passing game, June Jones has the SMU Mustangs ready to take on the Cardinal.

Once in command of the high-flying Hawaii Warriors, Jones has the Mustangs playing their best football yet in December. After winning Conference USA, the Mustangs are confident and ready to score. 

Stanford, on the other hand, is a little down due to a late season loss to Notre Dame. Despite winning the Pac-12, the Cardinal are not unbeatable. 

After SMU easily marches down on their first drive, the Mustangs smell blood in the water. Before time expires, however, the Cardinal regroup.

In the end, Stanford avoids a first round upset, scoring on a methodical last possession led by Heisman-winning quarterback Andrew Luck.

#5 LSU vs. #12 Notre Dame, Location: Baton Rouge, La.

In a game reminiscent of Notre Dame vs. LSU games of the past, some of Louisiana's Catholic residents struggle to determine which team to cheer for. 

LSU looked dominant during the season but is still reeling from a loss to Alabama that cost them the opportunity to play for the SEC Championship and a No. 1 seed in the playoffs, while Notre Dame has hit its stride after finishing the regular season with ten straight wins.

The Tigers out to prove it should be the national champion, and it seeks to embarrass the Irish once more. It's clicking on all cylinders, but this Notre Dame team is not like the one it faced in the 2007 Sugar Bowl. 

The Irish have a fast defensive line with speed on the edges of its linebackers, anchored by inside linebacker Manti Te'o.

LSU is caught by surprise when it has difficulty scoring. Notre Dame's offense struggles against the fast Tigers defense, as well.

In a low scoring affair, LSU's balanced attack defeats the Irish in a close first round game.

#6 Boise State vs. #11 Virginia Tech, Location: Boise, Idaho

Looking to avenge its 2010 opening game loss to the Broncos, Virginia Tech enters the game as an at-large qualifier after Clemson wins the ACC. 

Boise State is excited to prove itself in a system that finally gives it the opportunity to make its case that it should play in the national championship.

While Virginia Tech can score, it has no answer for most offenses, including Boise State's. Kellen Moore's experience makes Boise's offense flawless as he dismantles Virginia Tech's defense. Furthermore, the scrappy Broncos defensive line gives the Hokies trouble all day long.

Boise State takes home the first round victory on its blue turf, showing Virginia Tech that its win in 2010 was no fluke.

#7 Clemson vs. #10 Oklahoma State, Location: Clemson, S.C.

While Clemson entered the playoffs as the winner of its conference, Oklahoma State hails from 2011's first or second toughest conference. 

The Cowboys are playing good football, and Clemson's defense struggles against the run.

After Oklahoma State opens the Clemson defense with their passing attack, Clemson has difficulty stopping the Cowboys rushing attack. The Cowboys expose Clemson as a less than suitable contender for the playoffs when Clemson fails to get its ground game started.

In the end, Oklahoma State steals a first round win from the Tigers in Death Valley setting up an in-state rivalry rematch between the Cowboys and Sooners.

#8 Oregon V. #9 West Virginia, Location: Eugene, Ore.

Even without LaMichael James, the Ducks are dangerous. At the same time, West Virginia's speedy offense is difficult to contain. 

Lou Holtz called West Virginia the "real deal," while the Ducks are attempting to make it a second straight year in the national championship.

This is a game with little defense, but a lot of offense. Exciting to watch, both teams pound each other with big runs and large amounts of passing. 

Setting a record for total points in a bowl game, the Ducks and Mountaineers fight to see who will get the ball last.

Oregon scores with less than a minute left in the game, leaving WVU in a bind. Dropping eight defenders against the pass West Virginia is forced to march their way down the field with mid-range passes. A big run in the last drive gets the Mountaineers where they, ultimately, find the end zone. 

West Virginia comes away from a barn burner with an invitation to the second round.

The Bracket & Predictions

After reading our first round previews, you can see how the subsequent rounds are predicted to fall out. In the end, Wisconsin proves itself worthy when the BCS would have otherwise left them out of the National Championship. 

ROUND 2

Alabama v. West Virginia: Alabama stops WVU's offense and pounds them on both sides of the ball.

Wisconsin v. Stanford: Wisconsin relies on its offensive line to dominate Stanford, who struggles to score enough points to keep up with the Badgers.

Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State: Oklahoma won't relinquish its claim as the dominant school in the state and makes a point that it's determined to win a national title. 

Boise State v. LSU: LSU shows why it was considered the No. 1 team in the nation before its loss to Alabama. Boise State's talent is no match for that of the Tigers. 

SEMI-FINALS

Alabama v. Wisconsin: It's a battle between two of the most balanced attacks in college football. The Badgers want it more than the Crimson Tide, though, despite every effort by Nick Saban to put his program in the position to win. Wisconsin out-hustles Alabama in an attempt to rectify the damage done to the Big 10's reputation by Ohio State's embarrassing losses to SEC opponents. Wisconsin earns its trip to the national title in an upset victory in the Sugar Bowl.

Oklahoma v. LSU: Oklahoma has looked good all season while LSU has looked lethargic at times.  Oklahoma's well-oiled offense dominates the Tigers defense, while the Sooner defense does its best not to give away the game. Showing LSU who's more dominant in the Fiesta Bowl, the Sooners take a solid victory and an invite to the National Championship.

FINALS/CONSOLATION

Oklahoma v. Wisconsin: It's one for the ages as the Sooners and Badgers do battle in the Rose Bowl. Oklahoma's defense does its best to stop the Wisconsin ground game, while Wisconsin's secondary hopes to slow Landry Jones. The Badgers are on top at half time, but Oklahoma makes a late game push to seal a victory and the National Championship.

Alabama v. LSU: Frustrated by two losses that could have put them in the No. 1 spot, LSU unleashes fury against its SEC West rival who comes out apathetic about a third-place consolation game. LSU dominates in every facet of the game, while Alabama finds itself in three-and-outs, often. The dominant performance means an Orange Bowl trophy for the Tigers.

Playoff Foresights

Boise shined for a moment, but LSU showed them why they aren't in the same conversation as other large programs. Ultimately, Oklahoma does the expected in taking home the national championship.

A couple of upsets occurred, like Wisconsin's defeat of Alabama.

The following season, an unprecedented number of four and five star recruits choose to commit to former non-BCS programs when programs like SMU, Toledo, and Arkansas State sell these recruits on the idea of playing early and the opportunity to make it to the playoffs, simultaneously.

As the seasons continue, more money is distributed evenly among the conferences, facilities are upgraded at non-BCS schools and recruits are evenly persuaded to play across conferences. Five years later, the playoff has never been more competitive, as the disparity between the haves and have-nots has all but disappeared with a fair and just system in place that doesn't hoard money for a select group of schools, while preventing others from having a piece of the pie.