College Football: How Would Top 25 Look If Cam Newton, Others Stayed in School?

There is a familiar phrase that all college football fans love to utter about their favorite teams:

"What if?" 

At 4-2, Auburn fans are asking themselves, "What if we still had Cam Newton?"

After getting throttled by Alabama, Arkansas Razorback loyalists went to bed knowing the result would have been different if Ryan Mallett had stayed for one more season.

Unfortunately, that is all water cooler conversation now, right?

Wrong.

Thanks to the fine folks at Bleacher Report, fans of teams whose star players left early for the NFL can take solace in the following poll.

Who would be No. 1? Whose seasons would dramatically change? At what teams' expense?

For comparison's sake, here is the AP Poll. 

What are you waiting for? Let's get to the docket.

 

Team Dropping Outside the Top 25: Arizona State

Record: 5-1 (3-0 Pac-12)
Adjusted Record: 4-2 (3-0 Pac-12)
Early Departures: Lawrence Guy, DT 

After reshuffling the deck, one team finds itself on the outside looking in, according to the adjusted Top 25:

The Arizona State Sun Devils.
 
Lawrence Guy declared early for the NFL Draft, leaving the Sun Devils with a hole to fill on the defensive line. Guy had six tackles for losses and 1.5 sacks in 2010. Guy likely needed another season in college, seeing as how he was drafted 233rd overall by the Green Bay Packers.

Now it's time to give Dennis Erickson the "its not you, its them" speech. In reality, the Sun Devils are 5-1 with impressive wins over Missouri and USC.

However, the win over Missouri was in overtime. Guess who left as an underclassman for the Tigers? Blaine Gabbert.

The fact is, with Gabbert under center, Missouri would have won that football game: more on the Tigers later.

With the loss to Missouri factored in, Arizona State's record stands at 4-2, leaving the Sun Devils out of the Top 25 poll.  



 

25. Houston Cougars

Record: 6-0 (2-0 C-USA)
Adjusted Record: 6-0 (2-0 C-USA)
Early Departures: None

Houston's new showing in the AP Poll is safe with us, checking in at No. 25.

The offensive juggernaut keeps on clicking, averaging 47 points per game, good for fifth best in the nation.

Case Keenum continues to put up eye-popping statistics, spearheading his squad to the No. 1 passing offense in the country at 435.5 yards per game.

The Cougars are on pace to score 564 points in the regular season. The key for Houston is to stop the other teams from doing the same. The defense is allowing 391.8 yards per game.

Provided the Cougars play some semblance of defense down the stretch, do not be surprised if the zero in the loss column is there to stay. 

24. Michigan State Spartans

Record: 4-1 (1-0 Big 10)
Adjusted Record: 4-1 (1-0 Big 10)
Early Departures: None

Head coach Mark Dantonio looks concerned in the photo. Maybe it is because his Michigan State Spartans came painfully close to sliding out of the adjusted rankings.

Or, perhaps it could be the upcoming three-game stretch against Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska that has the coach worried.

Either way, the Spartans are unaffected by early departures. Even if Terrelle Pryor had returned to the Buckeyes this season, he would have been suspended for the contest with MSU.

What Michigan State does have going for it, though, is a stingy defense ranked third in the country, allowing only 10.2 points per game. It will be interesting to see how that unit plays against the explosive offenses of Michigan and Wisconsin over the next two weeks.

With the aforementioned season-defining stretch looming, keep an eye on the Spartans to see if they can get off the Top-25 bubble.  

23. Kansas State Wildcats

Record: 5-0 (2-0 Big 12)
Adjusted Record: 4-1 (1-1 Big 12)
Early Departures: None 

Ah, now we have a team whose record is affected by players retroactively staying in school.

For the second time, it has to do with the Missouri Tigers.

The Kansas State Wildcats are a surprise team, winning their first five games and climbing the rankings to No. 18 in the AP Poll. Bill Snyder's team is doing it in nail-biting fashion, winning four of their five victories by seven points or less.

The Wildcats also have a woeful passing attack, ranking 115th in the nation with 127 yards per game.

In 2010, Kansas State lost to Missouri by a score of 38-28. In 2011, Kansas State won, 24-17.

Obviously, there are other variables that affect a matchup from year to year. However, a quarterback at Blaine Gabbert's level makes that much of a difference.

Missouri's James Franklin struggled against the Wildcats' defense in this year's game, throwing for 219 yards with one interception. While Gabbert only threw for 208 yards in the 2010 matchup, he was more efficient, completing 68 percent of his throws and tossing two touchdowns. 

Factoring in the loss to the Tigers, Kansas State falls to 4-1 and places near the bottom of the Top 25. 

22. Texas Longhorns

Record: 4-1 (1-1 Big 12)
Adjusted Record: 4-1 (1-1 Big 12)
Early Departures: Aaron Williams, CB 

Wow, that was an old-fashioned whipping that Texas took from Oklahoma.

Not even Colt McCoy himself could have prevented a loss in this year's Red River Rivalry.

Texas did have a player leave early for the 2011 NFL Draft in Aaron Williams. Williams played mostly nickel back in 2010, though, and would have been better served to stay in Austin for another season.

His contributions would have made little impact on the season's results to this point.

Longhorn fans are getting restless, as their team is spending too much time in the bottom half of the Top 25 these days. Unfortunately, it does not get any easier this week. Texas has a showdown with the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Austin on Saturday.

Is Colt McCoy available?  

21. Texas A&M Aggies

Record: 3-2 (1-1 Big 12)
Adjusted Record: 3-2 (1-1 Big 12)
Early Departures: None

Texas A&M is another team unaffected by players leaving for the draft. 

This is good news for the Aggies, a team that desperately needs some at this point. The Aggies have suffered two heartbreaking losses to Oklahoma State and Arkansas, both quality teams.

The Aggie defense has been exposed against high-powered offenses the past three weeks. A&M allowed 29, 38, and 40 points respectively to Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Texas Tech during that stretch.

This week? They have to try and stop Robert Griffin III and the Baylor Bears.

It would be a mistake to count the Aggies out, though. Last year, Texas A&M started 3-3 before reeling off six straight wins to end the regular season.

20. Baylor Bears

Record: 4-1 (1-1 Big 12)
Adjusted Record: 4-1 (1-1 Big 12)
Early Departures: None

The Baylor Bears rank in the top 15 in passing yards, rushing yards and points per game.

Their most impressive performance came against a perennially tough TCU defense. Baylor scored 50 points, and the college football nation was made aware of Robert Griffin III.

The key for the Bears to stay in the Big 12 race is their defense. Besides shutting out FCS opponent Stephen F. Austin, Baylor has allowed 48, 31, 35 and 26 points in four other games. 

That being said, the Bears remain status-quo in the adjusted rankings. Baylor did not lose any early entrants into the 2011 NFL Draft. 

19. Arkansas Razorbacks

Record: 5-1 (1-1 SEC)
Adjusted Record: 4-2 (0-2 SEC)
Key Departures: Ryan Mallett, QB 

Wait, the Hogs are getting an NFL-caliber quarterback who threw for over 3,800 yards and 32 touchdowns last year back, and they are WORSE?

In a word, yes.

Retroactively adding players who left early can giveth, but can also taketh away.  

That is precisely the case for the Razorbacks. Divisional foe Auburn gets Cam Newton, Nick Fairley and Darvin Adams back on its team.

Yes, Arkansas beat the 2011 Auburn Tigers by 24 points, but Arkansas would not beat a 2011 Auburn team with the three aforementioned players.

Just like in 2010 when the Tigers put up 65 points on the Hogs, a Newton-guided team would be unstoppable for an inconsistent Arkansas defense. A banged-up offensive line would also have trouble blocking a defensive line anchored by Fairley.

Luckily for the Razorbacks, Auburn is severely depleted by its early departures. In this Top 25, however, the Hogs fall to No. 19 with two early SEC losses. 

18. Virginia Tech Hokies

Record: 5-1 (1-1 ACC)
Adjusted Record: 5-1 (1-1 ACC)
Early Departures: Darren Evans, RB Ryan Williams, RB 

Talk about a stable of running backs!

The Hokies lost a combined 4,251 rushing yards and 52 touchdowns in career production when Evans and Williams departed early for the 2011 NFL Draft.

Virginia Tech has not lost a step.

The departures left big shoes to fill, and David Wilson has not disappointed. Wilson has already rushed for 767 yards to go with five touchdowns on the young season.

The problem for Tech has been the inconsistent play by its young quarterback, Logan Thomas.

While Virginia Tech has lost significant production at running back, its game results would likely be unchanged to this point in the season. 

17. Illinois Fighting Illini

Record: 6-0 (2-0 Big 10)
Adjusted Record:6-0 (2-0 Big 10)
Early Departures: Mikel Leshoure, RB Corey Liuget, DT Martez Wilson, LB

Give credit where it's due. Ron Zook has led the Fighting Illini to an impressive 6-0 start to the 2011 season. 

Despite losing three players to early entry in the draft, Illinois is poised make a run at the Big Ten title this season.

Ilinois is stout in the running game in spite of the Leshoure loss. The team is averaging 226.2 yards per game on the ground, including a 308-yard performance against Indiana last Saturday.

The schedule gets more difficult, starting with Ohio State on Saturday. Later on, the Fighting Illini have to face Michigan and Wisconsin on back-to-back weekends.

Without these players, Illinois is likely to fade out of the BCS picture by season's end. Illini fans are left to ponder what could have been.

16. South Carolina Gamecocks

Record: 5-1 (3-1 SEC)
Adjusted Record: 5-1 (3-1 SEC)
Early Departures: Tori Gurley, WR 

The South Carolina Gamecocks have played two games against teams significantly affected by early departures. 

The first of which came against the Georgia Bulldogs, who stand to gain the electrifying A.J. Green. Unfortunately, Green does not play defense, so the result would have likely still favored the Gamecocks.

Steve Spurrier's team also played the Auburn Tigers. The only difference in that outcome would have been the margin of loss for South Carolina.

It will be intriguing to follow the ramifications of Stephen Garcia's dismissal from the team. His inconsistent actions both on and off the field hurt the team more than they helped.

Connor Shaw looked impressive in the 54-3 romp over Kentucky, passing for 311 yards and four touchdowns.

Wide receiver Tori Gurley played second fiddle to Alshon Jeffery, thus limiting his influence on the 2011 squad. The record stands as called for South Carolina. 

15. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Record: 5-1 (1-1 Big Ten)
Adjusted Record: 5-1 (1-1 Big Ten)
Early Departures: None 

Nebraska is finding play in the Big Ten to be quite difficult thus far.

Its first conference game in the Big Ten spelled disaster, with a tough 48-17 loss at Wisconsin. Next, the Cornhuskers had to claw out a home victory against the struggling Ohio State Buckeyes, 34-27.

Nebraska's success is predicated on the rushing attack, averaging 246.8 yards per game. Quarterback Taylor Martinez has struggled to a 54.3 percent completion percentage. He has thrown for a mediocre six touchdowns and six interceptions.

The problems do not stop there for the Cornhuskers. Bo Pelini's defense is allowing over 27 points per game, certainly out of character for his standards.

Nebraska has a chance to make some headway in the Big Ten with its relatively light remaining schedule. With no early departures, the Cornhuskers remain steady in our adjusted poll.  

14. Missouri Tigers

Record: 2-3 (0-2 Big 12)
Adjusted Record: 4-1 (1-1 Big 12)
Early Departures: Blaine Gabbert, QB Aldon Smith, DE

Time to justify all of those losses to the likes of Kansas State and Arizona State, right?

Missouri has been a hard-luck loser to this point in the season. They have been close in every loss, with the biggest margin coming against the Oklahoma Sooners at 10 points.

These same close games were victories for the Tigers in 2010. The difference can be accounted for in the form of a poised NFL quarterback who is capable of making game-winning plays down the stretch.

Gabbert was excellent at doing just that in 2010. The intangibles that he possesses are sorely missed by Missouri in 2011, as evidenced by their 2-3 start.

With two wins against Kansas State and Arizona State to go along with a close loss to the Sooners, the Tigers would get national respect to the tune of a solid ranking inside the Top 25.

Their No. 14 ranking on this list gives Missouri fans a glimpse of what could have been had the NFL starter returned for another year. 

13. West Virginia Mountaineers

Record: 5-1 (1-0 Big East)
Adjusted Record: 5-1 (1-0 Big East)
Early Departures: Robert Sands, S

West Virginia had a chance to make a huge statement in front of a national audience versus LSU during Week 4.

Then, the turning point.

Consequently, the Mountaineers fell short, losing 47-21.

Despite that, West Virginia has a talented team, highlighted by Dana Holgorsen's high-powered passing offense. The team ranks fourth in the country in passing yards per game, at 380.5 per game.

Conversely, the running game is only averaging 123 yards per game.

Despite losing the freakishly tall Robert Sands, the defense has been solid except for the LSU performance.

The Mountaineers season is unaltered by early departures. Look for West Virginia to be the Big East representative in the BCS at year's end.   

12. Clemson Tigers

Record: 6-0 (3-0 ACC)
Adjusted Record: 5-1 (3-0 ACC)
Early Departures: Da’Quan Bowers, DE Jamie Harper, RB 

The second victim to the return of Cam Newton and company is the Clemson Tigers. 

Dabo Swinney's team has certainly proved the doubters wrong this season, defeating three ranked teams in succession in Auburn, Florida State and Virginia Tech.

The question is, would they have done so under this scenario?

In Auburn's case, the answer is no.

The playmaking abilities of Newton and Nick Fairley are being validated in the National Football League every Sunday. Even with Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson would not stand a chance against the formidable spread-option attack of Auburn.

Yes, Clemson and Auburn went to overtime in 2010.

However, that game took place well before the Auburn team gelled as a group. With a year under their belt and superior talent, Auburn would handle Clemson when armed with Newton behind center.

This is not to say Clemson cannot make a BCS bowl, however. These Tigers are the favorite to win the ACC and punch a ticket to the Orange Bowl.  

11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Record: 6-0 (3-0 ACC)
Adjusted Record: 6-0 (3-0 ACC)
Early Departures: Nick Claytor, OT Jarrard Tarrant, S

Someone please break up the passing attack of Paul Johnson's Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.

With all jokes aside, the undefeated Yellow Jackets have found more balance this season behind new starter Tevin Washington. They have not missed tackle Nick Claytor, who bolted for the NFL after just one year at starter for the Jackets. 

Balance is a term to be taken relatively of course, when discussing the triple-option offense. Georgia Tech ranks sixth overall in points per game, at 46.5.

Will the defense hold up against ACC competition?

So far it has done just enough to make the Jackets 3-0 in ACC play. However, it has allowed 24 points per game on defense.

That just might be enough for this potent rushing attack. 

10. Michigan Wolverines

Record: 6-0 (2-0 Big Ten)
Adjusted Record: 6-0 (2-0 Big 10)
Early Departures: None

Michigan is immune to any roster changes stemming from early departures.

The Wolverines are also immune to any difficult games in the first half of the season.

Its hardest game took place at home against 4-2 Notre Dame. While it was a thriller, it was hardly a test worthy of BCS title consideration just yet.

The Wolverines have put up impressive statistics. Michigan ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards and points allowed. Like last year, it has a Heisman contender in game-changing QB Denard Robinson.

Again, credit is given where credit is due. The Wolverines have taken care of business, and have tests down the road to prove their worth.

At this point, a win versus Ohio State would more than satisfy Wolverine fans. 

 

 

9. Oregon Ducks

Record: 4-1 (2-0 Pac-12)
Adjusted Record: 4-1 (2-0 Pac-12)
Early Departures: Javes Lewis, CB 

The lone departure for the Oregon Ducks was Javes Lewis, a cornerback. Fortunately for Oregon, Lewis was a sparse starter, and his loss has proved meaningless for Oregon's 2011 campaign.

The hype surrounding Oregon's high-powered offense was justified, given the Ducks' 50.2 points per game.

The biggest concern for Duck fans is the status of star running back LaMichael James. James went down with a gruesome arm injury late in the win on Thursday night. The X-rays showed nothing was broken, which is good news. 

However, James may miss some time, including a key matchup with Arizona State on Saturday.  

One of the most anticipated games of the season still awaits Oregon: a showdown with the Stanford Cardinal in November.  

8. Stanford Cardinal

Record: 5-0 (3-0 Pac-12)
Adjusted Record: 5-0 (3-0 Pac-12)
Early Departures: Thomas Keiser, LB  

Imagine the possibilities on this list had Andrew Luck declared for the 2011 NFL Draft.

Then again, Stanford would likely not be a Top-25 team in that scenario to begin with.

Linebacker Thomas Keiser was the sole early departure for Stanford. Keiser accrued 5.5 sacks, 38 tackles and one interception in 2010.

Losing Keiser, like trying to judge Stanford's legitimacy, is difficult due to a relatively simple early-season schedule.

The only ranked team the Cardinal have on their schedule is Oregon, which is played in Palo Alto. With that schedule, and Luck under center, Stanford has a great shot at playing for a BCS National Championship. 

7. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Record: 5-0 (2-0 Big 12)
Adjusted Record: 5-0 (2-0 Big 12)
Early Departures: None 

Completely unaffected by players leaving early for the draft, Oklahoma State started the year in prime position to have a special season. 

The Cowboys have not disappointed thus far, winning their first five games to start the year.

Oklahoma State is the front-runner in points per game, averaging an incredible 51.4. The Cowboys are coming off a game in which they put up 70 on the scoreboard against a conference opponent!

This offense is dynamic. Will the defense hold up? Or will the offense score enough to make that an irrelevant statement?

As the weeks tick by, a showdown with Oklahoma is looming large. Maybe one or all of the above questions will be answered by then.  

6. Boise State Broncos

Record: 5-0 (0-0 Mountain West)
Adjusted Record: 5-0 (0-0 Mountain West)
Early Departures: None 

There is no way this team will be abandoned by players leaving school early to play in the pros.

With Kellen Moore returning as quarterback, the Broncos have unfinished business from 2010. With the crushing loss to Nevada ruining their hopes at a BCS title, the Broncos began the 2011 season in hopes of proving their BCS worth.

The boys in blue started well, defeating Georgia in a virtual away game. Moore is off to an incredible start, throwing for 17 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Combine that with a 74 percent completion percentage, and you have yourself another Heisman contender.

There is no questioning the fact that Boise State has already completed its hardest work of the season already.

Now, it must take care of business and await its BCS fate. 

5. Wisconsin Badgers

Record: 5-0 (1-0 Big 10)
Adjusted Record: 5-0 (1-0 Big 10)
Early Departures: John Clay, RB J.J. Watt, DE  

Winning by 34 points over UNLV is ordinary.

Winning by 31 points over Nebraska? Now you are turning some heads.

In John Clay, the Badgers lost a 1,000-yard rusher, and J.J. Watt had seven sacks in 2010 to go with 61 tackles.

Despite losing those significant contributors, Wisconsin has not missed a single beat.

Actually, it has taken the beat up a notch.

Bringing in N.C. State transfer Russell Wilson certainly helped the cause. In his first campaign with the Badgers, Wilson has thrown 13 touchdowns and only one interception. He has completed nearly 75 percent of his passes, and has a quarterback rating of 216.9. 

Wisconsin appears to be the class of the Big Ten. Regardless of losing two players, Wisconsin's prospects at a BCS run appear unfettered, as does Wisconsin's top-five ranking.  

4. Oklahoma Sooners

Record: 5-0 (2-0 Big 12)
Adjusted Record: 5-0 (2-0 Big 12)
Early Departures: None

When drawing up a schematic on how a national championship team should be assembled, one should look no further than the 2011 Oklahoma Sooners.

As stated above, the Sooners lost no early entries into the 2011 NFL Draft.

Landry Jones is an experienced NFL-level quarterback with dangerous receivers all around him.

The team is coached by Bob Stoops, who has won his fair share of spotlight games.

Oh yes, and the Sooners rank in the top 12 in points for and against, which means they are winning games by wide margins.

Though Oklahoma is on the outside looking in both in this poll and in the AP Poll, it controls its own destiny. If they win out, the Sooners will be in the BCS National Championship.

It's as simple as that. 

 

3. Auburn Tigers

Record: 4-2 (2-1 SEC)
Adjusted Record: 6-0 (3-0 SEC)
Early Departures: Darvin Adams, WR Nick Fairley, DT Cam Newton, QB

The Auburn Tigers are tied with Alabama for the most early departures in the 2011 NFL Draft with three. 

Newton would resurrect a passing offense ranked 106th in the nation. Furthermore, Auburn's points per game average would skyrocket with Newton behind center.

Similarly, Fairley would help a defense that is ranked 94th in sacks.

Simply put, when these three players left, the cupboard at these positions was left bare.  

With these three prospects back on the roster, Auburn would instantly become a contender for the national title.

They do not lose to Clemson. They handle Arkansas.

Then, along with LSU and Alabama, they would play a round-robin in the SEC West to determine who will face Oklahoma in the BCS National Championship Game.

Unfortunately for Auburn supporters, LSU and Alabama have more talent than the 2010 National Champions. However, the idea of having Auburn in the conversation is a better alternative to the direction the 2011 season is presently headed.

 

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 6-0 (3-0 SEC)
Adjusted Record: 6-0 (3-0 SEC)
Early Departures: Marcell Dareus, DT Mark Ingram, RB Julio Jones, WR

Take a moment and picture this:

First, think about how dominant the Alabama team has been to this point, averaging a 30.7-point margin of victory.

Now, add the three early departures to that team.

Scary, huh?

It would be a serious challenge for 70 percent of offenses to score a single touchdown on the current Tide defense with Marcell Dareus added to the mix.

As for Julio Jones, NFL corners are still attempting to figure out how to slow this freak of nature down. A playmaking receiving threat opposite of Marquis Maze would be unstoppable alongside a strong running game composed of Ingram and Richardson. 

No, the difference in terms of results and ranking is not significant. But, that is only because Alabama was already elite.

Put these players back on the depth chart, and the 2011 Crimson Tide are all-time great.


 

1. LSU Tigers

Record: 6-0 (3-0 SEC)
Adjusted Record: 6-0 (3-0 SEC)
Early Departures: Patrick Peterson, CB Stevan Ridley, RB

The only issue with bringing back these two studs is what to do about the No. 7 jersey on defense. 

Last year it was Peterson. This year it is stud playmaker Tyrann Mathieu.

While we are on the subject, do not forget about NFL cornerback prospect Morris Claiborne. LSU's secondary matches up well with any receiving group in the country, including that of many NFL teams.

Stevan Ridley has already made his presence felt in the NFL, getting significant time for the New England Patriots. Ridley was the ideal back for the toss plays that Les Miles likes to run in short-yardage situations. 

Like Alabama, LSU does not jump up the rankings because of these returnees. However, the talent of the Tigers becomes downright ridiculous with these two guys back on the roster.

It is essentially a coin-toss between Alabama and LSU for the top spot. LSU gets the nod at No. 1 because of its remarkable secondary and more difficult schedule thus far.