Georgia's Football Recession: An Analysis of Causes, Symptoms and Prognosis

Bare with me now as I lay out this analogy. In 2008, consumption in the U.S. began to decline for the first time in twenty years. The economy began shedding jobs by the thousands. By year's end, we had entered into a full scale recession, our first since the brief recession of 2001.

Like most, this one was preceded and caused by a number of augmenting events and factors, such as the sub-prime lending fiasco and the subsequent bursting of the housing bubble. While some say that the economic malaise ended by mid-2009, recent indicators have caused many to suggest that we either never completely emerged from it or that we are destined for a double dip, or a relapse back into recession.

Recession? "What the heck does this have to do with football? UGA football, in particular?," you may wonder. Well, coincidentally, Georgia's football program, like the nation, began to emerge from a pigskin recession of sorts by late 2001, as Mark Richt's first season at the Bulldogs helm drew to a conclusion. Richt's arrival in Athens ushered in a seven year era of relative football prosperity that saw the Georgia Bulldogs win SEC championships in 2002 and 2005, the SEC East title three times, 72 games, five of seven bowl games, and concluding the 2007 season in the discussion for the BCS championship game bid. Though they didn't receive it, the 'Dawgs ended the year ranked No. 2 in the final AP poll.   

Receiving  the preseason No.1 ranking from most pollsters, Georgia entered 2008 with a future so bright that they began the season wearing shades.

As the year unfolded, however, it became clear that the program's shiny patina was either paper thin or little more than a cheap facade. Since mid-season 2008, UGA football has fallen into a new recession on the gridirons of the SEC, resulting in a decline in wins and reputation that has continued to this day. Despite their 59-0 win over hapless Big South opponent, Coastal Carolina, last Saturday, the 'Dawgs remain in doldrums that have rendered them unable to win big games against major competition and irrelevant in serious title discussions.

What caused this downturn in a program that appeared to be one of the nation's best entering the last week of September 2008? Of the popular explanations, which are real and which are more a matter of frustrated speculation? What has been the fallout, the signs of a slip from the good graces of the those fickle gridiron gods? What is the state of the program and its head coach, Mark Richt, today?

Let's explore what is speculated. 

Cause? Van Gorder Factor: "Dearly Departed, How We Miss Thy Miserly Ways"

In college football, defense matters. Flashy, high octane offenses come and go, but ultimately, those programs built upon the foundations of rock solid, parsimonious defenses are always in the hunt.

In putting together his initial staff at Georgia, Mark Richt made the propitious decision to hire little known Brian Van Gorder as his defensive coordinator. While having a little head coaching experience, Van Gorder had built his reputation in coaching circles as a defensive genius while the coordinator at Western Illinois University in 2000 and at the University of Central Michigan the preceding two seasons. 

Van Gorder made fast work of developing the Bulldogs into one of the stingiest and most respected defenses in the Southeastern Conference and the nation.

Under his direction between 2001 and 2004, Georgia's defense yielded an average of 16. 7 points per game, with a low of 15.38 points per game during his second season in Athens in 2002.

During the Van Gorder years, the 'Dawgs defense had an average ranking of 4th in the conference in both total defense and scoring defense, and averaged 8th in the nation in scoring defense during that same span. In 2002, the 'Dawgs led the SEC in scoring defense and were ranked 4th nationally in that category. His defenses were renowned for being extremely tough against the run and for their bone-jarring htting and tackling. 

A number of Van Gorder's linchpin defenders were selected in the first or second rounds of the NFL draft. Ultimately, the NFL also recognized Van Gorder's own talents, and after the 2004 season, he was courted away from Georgia to become the linebackers coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He was succeeded by secondary coach and longtime Richt crony, Willie Martinez.

Since Van Gorder's departure, the defensive prowess that the 'Dawgs had developed gradually gave way, first to mediocrity and then to downright porousness.

Bulldog defenses began to shed points, instead of jobs, in sieve-like fashion. In 2008 and 2009, Georgia ranked 10th in the twelve team Southeastern Conference in scoring defense, yielding 24.54 and 25.42 points per game respectively, Though they did improve to 5th in the SEC, giving up an average of 22.68 points per game, last year under new defensive coordinator, Todd Grantham, Georgia still allowed greater than eight more points per game more than conference-leading Alabama.

Clearly, a major factor contributing to Georgia's football recession is the decline of its defensive fortunes.

Georgia gives up about a touchdown or more per game today than it did under Van Gorder. This swoon either resulted from the change in leadership, a drop off in the talent being recruited on that side of the ball, or a combination of the two. While Van Gorder certainly had the advantage of coaching a bevvy of talented defenders, it appears that his acumen and teaching skills were also a crucial part of the success of Mark Richt's first teams. 

Cause? Bobo Factor: Bulldog Nation Unsure That Bo(bo) Knows Best

Shortly after the 2006 season concluded, Mark Richt announced that he was turning the reins of his offense over to quarterbacks coach and former Bulldog signal caller, Mike Bobo.

Over the last four seasons and, especially, the last three campaigns, Offensive Coordinator Bobo has been a lightning rod for criticism among Bulldog fans. While the criticisms are varied, the major ones are that he is unimaginative and predictable in his play calling and grows too cautious and unpredictable once his charges enter opposing red zones.

Fans are infatuated by trendy offenses, such as the "Quack Attack", and many view the 'Dawgs dogged reliance upon the pro set and I-formation as passe.

Tantalized by constant off-season talk by the coaching staff of wrinkles being introduced in the season to come, they yawn when the "same old, same old" proves the norm each season. Bobo's first down and situational play selection has led many to feel as though they were watching the film, "Groundhog Day." And on the occasions when the Bulldogs seem to be moving the ball at will and enter into scoring territory, they are perplexed by the OC's penchant for becoming conservative and for moving away from what was working and had yet to be stopped by the opposing defense.

Out of frustration, many a Georgia fan of late has called for the mentor, Richt, to resume the play calling duties from his protege, laying part of the blame for the 'Dawgs recent woes at Bobo's feet. Upon close examination, however, the legitimacy of this criticism of Bobo's efficacy as a play caller may be distorted, at best, and just plain erroneous, at worst.

In reality, when you compare scoring offense stats of the two coaches, Bobo appears to have a slight edge. Since 2006, the Bulldogs have averaged 31.5 poinst per game under Bobo, whereas during Richt's six years of calling the offense, Georgia put up 28.3 points per contest. During both men's tenure as offensive coordinator, the 'Dawgs' offense averaged between 4th and 5th rank in the conference in scoring.

While ranking 2nd and 3rd in the SEC in field goals in two of his four years may seem to evidence Bobo's purported red zone impotency, it should be noted that Georgia actually led the SEC in field goals in three of Mark Richt's six years directing the offense. This may suggest that red zone play calling is the forte of neither coach.

It would appear, therefore, that the Bulldogs under Bobo are putting plenty of points on the board—that is, enough if the defense was performing as it did during the Van Gorder years. If the offense bares a responsibility in the current negative state of affairs at all, it probably lies in a) their inability to sustain drives to control the ball and time of possession, and b) their penchant for scoring quickly on big plays. The combination of these traits results in the defense finding itself on the field far too often and for far too long.

In sum, the extent to which the "Bobo factor" explains or has contributed to Georgia's recent slump seems fuzzy at best.  

Cause ? Not Enough Water Left in the Talent Pool to Make a Big Splash?

According to Rivals.com, only Southern Cal has out-recruited Mark Richt and the University of Georgia over the last decade—in other words, during the Richt era.

Certainly, the tradition and reputation of a university and its football program are powerful draws in the competition for top prep talent. If, however, it is also true that a direct correlation exists between the persona and reputation of the head coach and the program's ability to recruit student-athletes, then Mark Richt is a talent magnet.

From 2001 through 2011, Georgia's recruiting classes ranked in the top ten in the nation each year, according to Rivals, with the exception of the 2009 class which ranked 15th. That their highest ranking was third is a testament to the consistency of the talent that Richt's program attracts. While a competing recruiting service, Scout.com, judged some of these same recruiting classes lower, with rankings of 11th, 17th, and 21st during this ten year span, they also ranked some of the classes higher than did Rivals. Regardless, Georgia would still rank in the top ten recruiting powers during the last decade according to both rankings.

Recruiting, however, is based on potential, and as we all know, potential does not always pan out. So what about the other end of the process? Where does Georgia stand in churning out NFL talent?

Well, according to the records provided by Drafthistory.com, the Bulldogs lead other traditional SEC powers in the number of players drafted by the NFL during the Richt era of the draft (2002-2011). Georgia has had 58 draftees followed by LSU 56, Florida 54, Tennessee 48, Alabama 41, and Auburn with only 35. What about during the mid-2008 to present slump? Has the talent drafted by the next level dried up? No. In the last three drafts, Georgia, with 17 draftees, trails only LSU with 18. The Bulldogs, of course, produced the No. 1 overall pick, Matt Stafford, in 2009, and the No. 4 overall selection in A.J. Green last year.  The last three SEC champs, Auburn, Alabama, and Florida, trail behind with 9, 16, and 16 respectively.

What does all of this mean? In a nutshell, it simply means this. Unless the prep recruiting services are a complete sham and NFL scouts are completely clueless, the recent dwindling of the 'Dawgs fortunes on the gridiron is not due to a shortage of talent on the football field. 

Cause? Meaner Streets: "I Came from a Real Tough Neighborhood...on My Street..."

"...the kids took hubcaps...from moving cars," Rodney Dangerfield once deadpanned. Now that's a rough neighborhood. This much seems clear—from the standpoint of coaching and recruiting, the SEC is an even tougher "neighborhood" than it was during the first few years of the Mark Richt era at Georgia.

2005 was the year that the neighborhood began to take on an even harder edge.

During Richt's first four seasons at Georgia, his arch nemesis in the SEC was Nick Saban, who won two SEC championships and a national championship during his five seasons at LSU. When Saban departed for the NFL after the 2004 season, hopes were that LSU's prowess would subside. It hasn't. Not much anyway. Saban's successor, Les Miles, has led the Tigers to an SEC championship, two SEC West titles, and the 2007 national championship since taking over from Saban in Baton Rouge in 2005.

Similarly, after Steve Spurrier departed for the NFL at the end of Richt's first season, the Bulldogs hoped for a respite from the reptilian domination that Spurrier doled out. Unfortunately, even the short lived Ron Zook beat the 'Dawgs in two of three games before being canned midway through the 2004 season.

In 2005, Zook was succeeded by Urban Meyer, arguably one of the top coaches of the last decade. Meyer's Gators won five of six from Georgia, several of them lopsided contests. After winning two SEC titles and two BCS national championships in six seasons, Meyer retired after the 2010 campaign. He was replaced by former Bulldog, Will Muschamp, formerly one of the nation's top defensive coordinators. Muschamp hired former Notre Dame head coach and NFL assistant, Charlie Weiss, to run his offense, so it appears that the Gators will likely remain strong.

Steve Spurrier returned to the SEC in 2005, as well. Though it took time, Spurrier has forged former cellar dweller, South Carolina, into an SEC force to be reckoned with. The Gamecocks won the SEC East title in 2010 and return a strong squad favored to repeat this season.

Nick Saban, another NFL prodigal, returned to the SEC in 2007, taking over the storied program at Alabama. So what did he do? In his first four seasons, Saban brought an SEC title and a BCS championship to Tuscaloosa.

Bobby Petrino, ultra-successful as the head coach at Louisville, took over the program at Arkansas in 2008. In three seasons, he has raised the Razorbacks to the fringe of competing in the brutal melee for the SEC West title.

After being booed upon his arrival on the Plains in 2009, Gene Chizik performed miracles. In two meteoric seasons, Chizik took Auburn to the SEC and national title in 2010.

So, while the mean streets of the SEC have always been a tough place to prosper, it appears as though the ante has been raised in the last six seasons. The competition for top recruits is stiffer than ever. While always having competed with Auburn and Georgia Tech to bring in-state recruits to Athens, Georgia now finds itself having to stave off encroachments by Alabama, South Carolina, and even Florida State in its talent-laden backyard.

Factoring in the substantial and abundant coaching talent that abounds throughout the Southeastern Conference today, the Bulldogs have found the "neighborhood" increasingly inhospitable over the last two-and-a-half seasons. 

Cause? Looking in the Mirror: "Work Is Accomplished by Those..."

"...who have not yet reached their level of incompetence," postulated Laurence J. Peter in his 1979 book, The Peter Principle.

As outlined previously, Dr. Peter postulated that most people eventually rise, or are promoted, to their own personal level of incompetence, whether a result of the limitations of their own talents or the result of the unsuitability of their attributes and abilities to the environment in which they find themselves.

Willie Martinez, former teammate and college roommate of Mark Richt, served as the Bulldogs secondary coach under Brian Van Gorder. When Van Gorder opted for the NFL after the 2004 campaign, Martinez was promoted into the defensive coordinator's job.

Initially, the results were similar. But with the passing of each year removed from Van Gorder's departure, Georgia's defense became increasingly vulnerable.

By the 2008 and 2009 seasons, the 'Dawgs were giving up points by the bushel against everyone, but at a staggering rate of 26 points plus per game versus SEC opposition. They ranked 10th in the conference in scoring defense in each of those years.

Because of the clamor among rabid Bulldog supporters, to whom the decay of Georgia's once proud defense seemed obvious, Richt canned Martinez and two other defensive position coaches after the 2009 season, retaining only defensive line coach and recruiting coordinator, Rodney Garner. Martinez was replaced by former NFL assistant, Todd Grantham, and the defense showed some improvement during his first season in 2010.

Stacy Searels arrived in Athens in 2007 after a successful four-year stint as LSU's offensive line coach under both Saban and Miles. He was brought in to overhaul and bolster this component of Georgia's offense. After four years, however, little improvement was noted, and under heavy criticism, Searels departed for a similar position at Texas.

Another longtime Richt protege, strength and conditioning coach Dave Van Halanger, became the target of scrutiny as the program seemed to degenerate in the last seasons. Famous for the grueling "mat drills" that he brought to UGA from Florida State, Van Halanger drew fire as it appeared that the Bulldogs seemed less buff than the competition and continually faded down the stretch in games. He was replaced after the 2010 season by former Bulldog center, Joe Tereshinski, Jr.  

From play calling, to hiring coaches, to clock management, to a perceived lack of discipline within the program, Mark Richt himself has also been the butt of increasing scrutiny and criticism over the past three years. His name and the phrase, "Hot Seat", have become almost synonymous, and most agree that the 2011 campaign is critical to his future as the head 'Dawg.

These recent staff changes suggest either a buckling to pressure to right the ship from fans, a desperation to find solutions or a realization that, in the face of thicker competition, the former coaching staff simply had not been been "coaching them up" to a competitive enough level.

To paraphrase Victor Kiam, "In football—as in business, the competition will bite you if you keep running—if you stand still, they will swallow you up."

Run, 'Dawgs, run. 

Symptom? National Contender to Pretender: A Chink in the Black Armor Exposed

To this observer, the last Saturday of September during the 2008 season ironically parallels October 29, 1929, a day in our history remembered as "Black Tuesday." The stock market crash that occurred on that day did not cause the Great Depression; it set all of the underpinning causes that were already in existence into motion, and thus, it hit the fan. That event set fire to the gasoline soaked kindling—the real causes—that was lying around awaiting a spark.

When the Bulldogs took the field in Sanford Stadium on the evening of September 27, 2008, adorned in the black jerseys that they had unleashed upon Auburn in a victory during the previous season, they were still highly ranked. Some signs of shortcomings were already conspicuous, however, to those who were looking closely. By halftime that night, the Alabama Crimson Tide had turned the lights out on Georgia, jumping out to a 31-0 manhandling of the 'Dawgs. Though the 'Dawgs rallied in the second half, the infamous "Black Out" culminated in a 41-30 loss that rocked the highly-touted Georgia squad.

Though 6-3 from that day forward, the Bulldogs were exposed, and they never seemed to fully recover their swagger. They went on to suffer a 49-10 drubbing at the hands of Florida, and then concluded the regular season with an embarrassing 45-42 loss to cross state rival Georgia Tech—in Athens.

Whatever the causes, most downward spirals have a starting point. For Georgia, September 27, 2008 may truly have been "Black Saturday." 

Symptom? Fulmer Cup 2010: Winning an Award Is Not Always a Good Sign

This trophy that Phil Fulmer is depicted holding is both a real and positive one. It represents the national championship that he won as head coach at Tennessee in 1998. The Fulmer Cup is neither real nor positive. Deservedly or not, this award is a mythical one named after Fulmer because of the repeated, offseason brushes with the law that Vols players had during his tenure at Tennessee. 

To say the least, it is an ignominious honor. In other words, a dishonor. It is a scarlet 'A' of sorts. 

Between the 8-4 mediocrity of the 2009 campaign and the beginning of preparations for their 6-7 tally in 2010, their first losing season since 1996, no fewer than thirteen UGA football players were arrested during the offseason for a myriad of offenses. The embarrassing reports seemed almost endless as spring spilled over into summer. Georgia was proclaimed the runaway winner of the conference's most disgraceful award, the Fulmer Cup.

The negative publicity that the spree garnered for the university, the program and Mark Richt was disconcerting. Rumors abounded that a lack of institutional control existed within the program. Richt was proclaimed "soft' by many, who wondered how much this apparent lack of control correlated to the program's paltry productivity on the playing field. The losing season that ensued did nothing but reinforce suspicions about the interrelation between the two phenomena.

Whether the two were strongly correlated or not, many became convinced that either discipline within the program was indeed lax, that program had resorted to recruiting players of suspect character, or that both of these conditions were true.

From the athletic director to the coaching staff to team members, the program's leadership made concerted effort to eliminate this perceived connection between losing and losers and the blight that it wrought upon the program's reputation during the past offseason. At this point, their efforts seem successful - at least on the surface.  

Symptom? Those Were the Days: Whatever Happened to "Finish the Drill"

By now, the doom and gloom surrounding Georgia's dismal 2010 campaign are well chronicled. After finishing a mediocre 6-6, not bad considering how the season began, the 'Dawgs lost in the Liberty Bowl 10-6, handing an inspired Central Florida team its first ever bowl victory. Talk about your low points. The Bulldogs played uninspired, the offense sputtered, and even Richt later admitted disgust with the effort.

During Richt's first seasons, the mantra that he introduced as the program's overriding philosophy was "Finish the Drill." As those contemplative of Georgia football eventually came to realize, the Bulldogs were no longer finishing the drill by the end of 2010. It seemed evident that they were consistently being outplayed by opponents. They were being whipped and losing the battle along both lines of scrimmage. Even when on a roll and playing well in many games throughout the season, they either faded due to an apparent lack of conditioning and/or will, or they committed team-icide by committing physical or mental errors that demonstrated either a lack of focus or heart.

The 2010 season epitomized the flaws that had evolved over time within the program. It led to an offseason of head scratching and criticism by fans and of soul searching, redoubling of efforts and more reforms within the program's leadership.

The not-so-long-ago proud and loud Bulldogs headed toward 2011 with tails tucked ever so slightly between their legs.

And then? 

Symptom? Sign of the Times: Snubbed by the Big and the Rich

For six years, the introductory theme song on ESPN's College Gameday, an adaptation of the lyrics of country music duo Big and Rich's hit song, "Coming to Your City," began like this:

"We're coming to your city
Well we flew through Oklahoma,
Alabama, & through Georgia
Time to get on down to Florida
For the game."

When the 2011 season of Gameday premiered back on September 3rd, a revised edition of the theme song was unveiled. Big and Rich are still there. So is Cowboy Roy. The accompanying video even features Big and Rich crony, Two Foot Fred. The Bulldogs even still make an almost subliminal, cameo appearance in the video. But gone from the lyrics is the phrase, "through Georgia."

In revamping the song, the artists and producers sought to upgrade it to include the hottest programs, such as TCU, or up and coming ones, like the rebounding Seminoles of FSU. While merely a brief intro tune to a television show about college football, that the Bulldogs were erased from the lyrics speaks volumes to their relevancy as a program as the 2011 season gets into full swing.

The bottom line is that Georgia is currently an afterthought when it comes to the SEC and BCS titles, a far cry away from where the program stood at this point just three short years ago.

The fall from the graces of good fortune, even football fortunes, can be swift—and painful. 

Prognosis? Where Do We Go from Here: The State of the Program Today

As we move toward this Saturday's game in Oxford with Ole Miss, the first true road test of the season, the program—at least under Mark Richt—finds itself at a crucial crossroads. The Bulldogs are 1-2, having lost convincingly to Boise State, dropping a hard fought SEC brawl with the Gamecocks, and brutalizing the other roosters from South Carolina, Coastal Carolina in a game that shed little light on the true state of things this season.

The upcoming four game stretch is critical. The 'Dawgs face the M-i-s-s-i-s-s-i-p-p-i-s in consecutive weekends, taking on a weak and reeling Rebel squad on the road Saturday and a talented but still trying to turn the corner team in Mississippi State at Sanford the following week. They then travel to Knoxville to take on Dooley's—Derek, that is—Vols, before going back to Tennessee the following week to face the surprising shipmates of Vanderbilt in Nashville. After a rigorous beginning, this stretch was supposed to be the lighter fare on this year's docket.

So, where does the program stand today? That is clearly, well, unclear.

In reflecting on the Bulldogs' recent recession, it appears that the defensive facet of the program has suffered since the departure of Van Gorder. Nevertheless, it also seems clear that Georgia suffers from no shortage of talent. Some of this year's "Dream Team" recruiting class are already showing signs of potential greatness. While producing points, the offense, to this point, seems to live and die by the big play, struggles controlling the ball and grinding out long drives and fizzles upon entering the red zone. Whether or not measures taken by the coaching staff to combat and overcome perceived physical and character shortcomings have been effective remains to be seen.

All should begin to come to light over the next month of play and will certainly be revealed in Jacksonville near Halloween and against Auburn in early November.

Recessions are down cycles. In economics, they are characterized by the declining value of an economy's productivity and by rising unemployment. In football, recessions also feature a declining value in productivity, that is, a decline in a program's successes in the wars waged on the gridirons and in the living rooms of recruits. Similar to their economic counterparts, football recessions, justifiably or not, also result in rising unemployment — that is, employment casualties among the coaching staffs of the college programs that are not delivering.

Let's hope that, in the weeks ahead, the football gods have begun to smile upon Mark Richt and his Georgia Bulldogs and that the end of hard times and a subsequent return to the glory of yesteryear are just around the corner. What say you? Bullish or bearish?