Oregon vs. LSU: Why the Ducks Will Beat the Tigers in Season Opener

On Sept. 3, the Oregon Ducks will open their season against the LSU Tigers in a highly anticipated game at Cowboys Stadium.

For fans of the Oregon football team, there are many things to look forward to. Once the team gets back on the field, they will be eager to see how the team fares. Coming off a close loss against Auburn in the national championship, the Ducks have a mission to rekindle the flame that began in their undefeated season last year and look to win their third consecutive conference title. With their play, they can put the Auburn game behind them and look for a successful 2011 campaign instead.

While the Ducks may be under severe investigation for a potential connection with Willie Lyles, what college football fans continue to forget is that nothing has been proven yet, and it is entirely possible their innocence remains.

Once the team is able to do its job (going out there on Saturdays and playing top-notch NCAA football), its troubled summer may just as likely wash away and become water under the bridge.

Forget speeding tickets and possession of marijuana and recruiting violations for a moment. The Oregon Ducks are composed of student athletes that are there on scholarships to play football. The rest of the stories are infiltrating upon news that could have been swarming about a program that is in the up-and-coming stages of a potential dynasty, yet the media has continued to blur football with infractions that have little to do with the game and more to do with trashing the reputation of a university.

The Oregon Ducks are currently ranked No. 3 in the country, which is very impressive for a school that had seen only two appearances in BCS bowls (the 2002 Fiesta Bowl and the 2010 Rose Bowl) before last season.

Their offense is innovative and powerful. Their recruits are as strong as ever. Their home stadium is considered by many to be the loudest and best place to play in all of college football. They have multiple Heisman Trophy candidates in LaMichael James and Darron Thomas. Their coach is an offensive mastermind. Their team is poised to make another deep run at a championship.

The first mission? Beat LSU at Cowboys Stadium Sept. 3.

As head coach Chip Kelly said, he scheduled this game for a reason: “If you are going to be a top program, don’t be afraid to play anybody, take their best shot and move on.”

So why will the Oregon Ducks beat the LSU Tigers and make a legitimate push at their second consecutive appearance in the BCS National Championship?   

9. Weird Things Happen to LSU

I’m a sports fanatic (in the truest definition of insanity at the root), and follow my favorite teams religiously. During football season, my living room turns into a cave for tortilla chips and football and, if I’m away, my phone turns into a drug that feeds me live updates from the games.

My favorite college football team is the Oregon Ducks, and my favorite NFL team is the Dallas Cowboys. Needless to say, I’m excited to see how my Ducks fare in Jerry Jones' castle Sept. 3.

I’m still considerably confused as to why the game will be held there, and I’m even more upset that the season starts before the school starts (we’re on the quarter system, and I don’t go up to Eugene until Sept. 21) because I’m forced to miss multiple games, but I think the team will rise to the occasion and put up a legitimate fight against the Tigers in the opening game.

People that follow college football know that weird things tend to happen to the Tigers and the LSU football program; an explanation for that can be found in any legitimate summary of their past decade of seasons. For me, it’s legitimately weird that they’re playing their first game of the season in an NFL stadium against a Pac-12 team that made it to the BCS championship last season.

Oregon fans travel well (“ducks fly together”), and should do a decently impressive job of flooding the stadium on the big stage for the opening day game.

An opening-day loss would be the exact type of “weird thing” that LSU fans have grown accustomed to, as their luck of playing a team that just contended for the national title would take them out in Week 1.

And even worse, it could be in front of 80,000 fans. Last year’s game at Cowboys Stadium (Oregon State vs. TCU) sold a total of 50,000 tickets.

8. LSU Suspensions Will Play Role in Game

LSU is significantly crippled (perhaps worse than Oregon, if that’s possible) due to offseason troubles, as it has suspended WR Russell Shepherd, QB Jordan Jefferson and LB Josh Johns. The team has to build for the season with a new quarterback on short notice and may not be prepared for spread offense of Oregon on opening day.

While Jefferson wasn’t the type of player to throw for 300 yards against Oregon on opening day, it’s still worth noting that the player who will be running the Tigers offense is not the player that the Tigers wanted. As most people who have played competitive football would note, it’s really hard to learn how the offense works for your particular team. Perhaps that’s why so many NFL quarterbacks stick with one NFL team their entire career, and why some never pan out with their team (think Alex Smith).

To beat the Ducks, you can’t be thin at the offensive positions. Last season, the Ducks averaged 530.7 yards a game (first in the NCAA) and averaged a ridiculous 46.8 points per game (also first in the NCAA). In fact, their second-lowest scoring game last season was a 37-20 victory over Oregon State.

If you can’t keep up with the spread offense, the Ducks will take advantage of your lack of experience. Stanford, Washington and Oregon State all played Oregon relatively well for the first half of football last season, until Oregon ended up dominating the second halves of each of those games.

There’s simply no way of beating the Ducks if you aren’t able to keep up with the blur offense, because if you aren’t scoring, they will find ways to score from either side of the ball. Albeit interceptions or kick returns or rushing touchdowns, the Ducks didn’t score 46.8 points per game last season on accident. This is a team designed to put points on the board, so if LSU isn’t scoring now that their quarterback, a linebacker and a wide receiver are out, the Ducks will take advantage of that.

Following a bar fight off campus that sent four non-football players to the hospital, LSU has suspended their quarterback and linebacker indefinitely. The replacement for the scrambling QB is Jarrett Lee, a pocket passer who recorded a whopping negative-44 rushing yards last season. With Lee at QB, the entire team has to change their game entirely.

In the past, mobile rushers have given Oregon trouble as they’ve given up significant yardage in games to Terrelle Pryor, Andrew Luck and Cam Newton. If we pressure Lee, expect him to falter as Les Miles has virtually no track record of producing impressive QBs.

On top of that, with Shepard out (due to a university and NCAA violation), the advantage the Tigers gained with the Oregon Cliff Harris suspension is virtually minimized.

7. Auburn Was a Better Football Team

Auburn was a better team than LSU will ever be. The first overall pick and the Heisman Trophy winner powered its offense, and the Tigers had another first-round pick on defense in Nick Fairley.

LSU didn’t have that same charge to begin with, and that’s before it was announced that it doesn’t even have its starting QB.

Cam Newton was a freak of nature at QB. His talent was good enough to earn him a national title victory because he outplayed the Ducks, a Heisman trophy, the first overall pick in the NFL draft and a multi-million dollar contract.

He posted a QB rating of 182.0 (second highest in the NCAA), threw for 30 touchdowns and 2,854 yards and was only intercepted seven times. On top of that, he was a considerable weapon on his feet as his 1,473 rushing yards was good for 12th in the nation and he wasn’t even a running back.

As if the boasting had only just begun, Newton also recorded 20 rushing touchdowns (third in the nation, and only one touchdown behind Oregon star LaMichael James).

Further, the Ducks featured a small offensive line that did a terrible job of protecting the quarterback in the big game. Enter: Nick Fairley, first-round pick and Auburn defensive tackle that destroyed Darron Thomas in January.

On Sept. 3, the Ducks do not have to play Newton; they have to play the backup QB from LSU. They don’t have to play Fairley; they have to play two new starters at defensive tackle.

Despite how good Auburn’s team was, Oregon still managed to come within one score (and/or one completed tackle) of becoming the national champions. The Ducks return many of starters and stars and are facing a team that is not as good and loaded as Auburn was.

6. Oregon Will Capitalize on Graduations at Defensive Tackle

Oregon somehow maintained a very impressive performance against Auburn in the national championship despite its offensive line letting the opposing SEC defensive line sack its QB multiple times. Even with that major glaring flaw, Oregon only lost 22-19.

While the Ducks have fared poorly against teams with strong defensive lines (their Boise State loss came because the they were held to only 31 rushing yards in 2009), LSU has lost two of its starting defensive tackles to graduation.

To say that Chip Kelly is not concerned that his exposed weakness will come back to haunt them is an understatement; Kelly is certainly scared of how strong the LSU defense is. But he’s been preparing religiously and will look to capitalize on the experience holes at the defensive tackle.

Oregon will absolutely look to take advantage with their strong rushing game between James, Kenjon Barner and Thomas. Last season, James rushed for an NCAA-leading 1,731 yards and averaged 5.9 yards per attempt. With depth at the position, the Ducks runners may never get tired with so many options and threats, so look for a serious chance for Oregon offensive dominance in the LSU Tigers season opener.

Look for the Ducks to run a triple-offense option, as this Sports Illustrated article points out, in which Stewart Mandel mentions that the Ducks plan on running James, Barner and a motion receiver. In that game, however, Thomas was unseasoned. Now, he’s had an entire offseason to practice the triple-option routine. 

5. Cliff Harris Comes Back After Week 1

Nobody in the state of Oregon is ignorant to the fact that Cliff Harris was caught going 118 mph near Albany, Ore.

Many have even seen the awkward video of the officer that pulled him over.

Chip Kelly, however, is not concerned. The Ducks have a deep roster and understand the help that depth gives a football team. I recognize that Harris will not be playing in the season opener, but that does not mean that his impact is entirely vanished.

The Ducks know that they will be without the starter for a game and that he will likely be back by Week 2 of the college football season.

That means that all that the Ducks need to do is replace Harris for one game. He’s a difference-maker indeed, but the new recruit is looking to win a job and the hearts of Ducks fans across the country. The backup cornerback at Oregon isn’t exactly a pony league player. While he may not be Cliff Harris, the rest of the defense will (hopefully) compensate for the fact that Harris is out by playing especially impressive football against the Tigers.

While Anthony Gildon will get one cornerback-starting nod, other candidates include Avery Patterson. Patterson ran a ridiculously impressive 4.35 40-yard dash in his recruit, and got the attention of every Pac-12 team. With his speed, keeping up with an SEC defense shouldn’t be much of an issue. After gaining 10 pounds of muscle, his tackling should improve considerably. Now, he’s looking to impress the nation and win a starting job.

In this link, Bleacher Report writer Alex Shoemaker has outlined 10 replacement candidates for Cliff Harris. Look for them to step up big time in the LSU season opener.

4. Willie Lyles Controversy Would Blow over with Victory

I’m a firm believer in the “who wants it more" theory, in which the team that wants the victory more will tend to play harder and thus end up winning the game.

Is there a team in the NCAA that wants to go out there and win more than Oregon does right now? Not only is it coming off a close loss in the championship, but it's also been involved in one of the most ugly recruiting violation allegation charges in the program’s history.

We’ve heard that it’s possible that Chip Kelly paid Willie Lyles, a relatively unassuming sports personality from Houston, upwards of $25,000 to convince Lache Seastrunk to attend the University of Oregon.

Well, as we’ve seen, Seastrunk has chosen to transfer to Baylor, and the rumors surrounding LaMichael James are entirely just that: unconfirmed rumors.

If the Ducks can come out and get a victory against LSU in Week 1, the media will begin to talk about the Ducks play on the field rather than largely speculative allegations off it. Isn’t that exactly what happened to Cam Newton last year? Once he started playing well, the majority of the media focused on his unreal numbers rather than the father’s recruiting violations.

If Ducks fans can have their way, the Lyles rumors were simply offseason buzz from the media that has little to talk about. When they can come out playing a strong game, they can let the media talk about that instead.

Does anything in the world sound better than that? Well, maybe if it turns out the University of Miami rumors are true—that would make the $25,000 check to Lyles look like Kelly bought a player a burger at lunch. 

3. Chip Kelly's Blur Offense Will Continue to Dominate

The Ducks have an interesting advantage over LSU, as their offense has become among the most innovative and powerful forces of nature in the game.

The LSU defense is fast and athletic, but as my friend Seth points out, it tends to overcompensate and try to get the big hit. While that may work for some teams not quick enough to get out of the way, Oregon utilizes a quick enough offense that it should be able to use draw options and quick throws.

As Chip Kelly sees the defense coming in, I would hope he would get the ball out of the QB's hand rapidly and let the Ducks run up field with the Tigers.

Last season, the Ducks had one of the best special teams in the country, and if they come out swinging like they looked to continue from last season, this advantage will play out immediately as they should have that up on anybody that plays them.

On top of that, Chip Kelly absolutely has to (and probably will) out-coach Les Miles. He can’t let the big plays knock the Ducks out as LSU will have a bit of a home-field advantage, and he has to make sure the offensive line protects Darron Thomas.

At the end of the day, Kelly is a better coach than Miles and his innovative offense should be a dominant force in a key to victory over the Tigers. 

2. Recruits Will Make a Big Difference

Rivals.com calls this the ninth-best recruiting class in all of college football this year and could very well be the best recruiting class the Ducks have ever seen. With names like Devon Blackmon, De’Anthony Thomas, Tacoi Sumler and Rahsaan Vaughn (all who have recorded 40 times of less than 4.4 seconds), this class fits the mold for what has made Oregon so great to begin with: speed.

To quote Bleacher Report Oregon featured columnist Michael Plesha, “The Ducks no longer rebuild, they reload.” He cites Colt Lyerla as the biggest difference-maker for the LSU game, and I would not be surprised to learn that Lyerla could be a significant difference maker in the season opener.

Thomas is one of the most explosive 5-star recruits in recent memory, and as we learned from how he handled the USC situation, he’s a player that likes to grab headlines. Would anyone be surprised to see Thomas break a giant play open early in the game to show that he’s here to stay with Oregon? Writers on Bleacher Report like Nate Hanson feel that they have their own version of Reggie Bush with their new recruit.

On top of that, we tend to over exaggerate the importance of losing players from the starting roster. The players that will be replacing the likes of Casey Matthews and Jeff Maehl may not be immediately legendary, but they could still have an impact. These are players that have been recruited by major universities, and are there on football scholarships from the University of Oregon.

Matthews won’t be replaced with the first political science major that Chip Kelly found on campus; they can end up being better than the player that they were replacing to begin with.

With an open mind, the replacements could end up being legitimate help and not just “the new guy.”  

1. The Team Will Be More Experienced, Confident

At the end of the day, I really like the way that the Oregon Ducks play football. They’re ahead of the curve, inventive and generally put out game changers onto the field.

They’re the University of Nike, have a wonderful partnership with Oregon alumnus and founder of Nike Phil Knight. He keeps things interesting and has helped this football program take off to a new level of a dynasty.

They have coined the phrase “Win The Day,” which is a role that should be applied to more than just football. The Ducks go into their football games unaware of rankings and scores; they know that they’re there to play quality football and that’s what they continue to do.

Last year, they tasted championship level success and are hungrier for more. They are more experienced than the LSU team and are returning the majority of the core players that helped them get to where they got last season. As Bill Simmons tweeted after the final game last season, “Congrats to Oregon for retroactively winning the 2012 Championship.”

They know they need to come out and win the opener this season if they wish to repeat the success of last season, so it’s an absolute must-win.

To quote my favorite Nike advertisement from last season, “Everyone loses games. Few change them.”

The Ducks are changing football, and as a student of the University of Oregon, I could not be prouder. Go Ducks!