College Football Predictions 2011: 15 Teams Ready For a National Title Run
With the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the NFL Draft having passed, the official speculation for the 2011 college football season may officially commence.
Sure, signing day is still to come but realistically a freshman does not have what it takes to catapult a team into a national title contender.
Oklahoma will likely be the overwhelming favorite for the 2011 title but the games are all played for a reason. Plus, college football fans need something to do until the season starts up again.
One lesson to be learned from 2010 was that experience matters at key positions, whether you're Texas or Michigan State. Experience is going to play a larger role in these rankings than most other things. You have been warned.
Honorable Mention
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Stanford: Yes, Andrew Luck is returning and he is ridiculously good. But replacing seven offensive starters including three offensive linemen, four defensive starters and a head coach is not exactly easy. The Cardinal gets seven home games but it does not exactly give them much of an advantage. They’ll lose at least two this season.
Michigan State: The Spartans will be tested early and often by playing Notre Dame, Central Michigan, at Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin and at Nebraska. If they are for real this year, they won’t leave any doubt about it.
Mississippi State: The hottest team that you never heard about in 2010 is back and they’re returning seven starters on both sides of the ball. Problem is the Bulldogs lose their best linemen on both sides and three linebackers under a new defensive coordinator. And they play in the SEC West.
Oklahoma State: I want to like the Pokes but losing six starters on defense, Kendall Hunter and their brilliant offensive coordinator is simply too much to make up for against a brutal schedule: at Tulsa, Texas A&M, Texas and Missouri and at home against Oklahoma.They won’t make it through undefeated and a one-loss regular season should be considered a huge success, but that may not even happen.
Arkansas: My concerns are not with Tyler Wilson but with the schedule.The SEC West is the best conference in college football and Alabama and LSU are going to be two of the best teams in the entire country, and they get both of them on the road. Then there’s Texas A&M and South Carolina to worry about.
15. Arizona State
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Before you write Arizona State off—or this article for having ASU over Stanford, Michigan State or Oklahoma State—read on.
The Sun Devils finished last season with a 6-6 record and didn’t go to a bowl game, but outside of inexplicably getting demolished at California, they were dangerously close to being a player in the Pac-10.
With 10 returning starters on offense and nine on defense, there are a lot of things to like about Arizona State. Then you look at their schedule and there are even more.
They play at Oregon, Utah and Illinois but they get the rest of their tough games at home, including one against Missouri in Week 2 in which I like the Devils in an upset.
Arizona State is primed for a resurgence onto the national scene and they should only need a few games to do it. It’s definitely a long shot but if a couple of the close games they lost last season, like at Wisconsin, go their way, look out.
14. Nebraska
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There are quite a few Big Ten teams that will make this list and Nebraska could be the most talented of all of them. It’s just that the schedule is absurdly difficult.
They play seven Big Ten bowl teams including at Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan as well as Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa at home.
Taylor Martinez wasn’t the same quarterback after his injury but he will have ample time to heal and get back to his early season form. Jared Crick will dominate everyone and Rex Burkhead is primed to become a household name.
If the Huskers can manage to get through their schedule with only a loss, they could leap over an undefeated Boise or TCU. In a way-too-early upset pick, Penn State beats Nebraska at home and then Ohio State in the Big Ten championship.
13. Wisconsin
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Montee Ball and James White are both returning for the Badgers after a fantastic 2010 season, despite the loss to TCU in the Rose Bowl.
It’s everything else that presents an issue for Wisconsin. Johnny Unitas Award winner Scott Tolzein will no longer be the quarterback, Outland Trophy winner Gabe Carini is out at left tackle, All-American John Moffitt is out at left guard and J.J. Watt won’t be defensive end anymore.
Wisconsin is known for putting behemoth after behemoth in the trenches but an early season matchup against Nebraska and road games at Michigan State and Ohio State are going to need a lot more than big farm boys to get through.
12. Ohio State
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Ok, my affair with the Big Ten is officially over with the Buckeyes.
The five suspensions to some of the top Ohio State players, including Terrelle Pryor, are going to seriously hurt in the regular season.
Their first game back will be at Nebraska and that is a serious problem. Outside of their main offensive players getting back into a live game, their defense is losing a bunch of players, including defensive end Cameron Heyward.
The last game those five will miss is a home matchup against Michigan State. The Buckeyes have one of the best home-field advantages in the country and they will have to bring it in order to beat the Spartans.
Once everyone is playing again and is back in the swing of things, the Buckeyes will be a dangerous team that no one will want to face. But those tattoos may be enough to keep Ohio State out of the national championship.
11. Virginia Tech
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Yes, I’m a Virginia Tech writer and I love my Hokies. But no one is giving them much of a chance in 2011 and they deserve it.
Virginia Tech only loses four starters on both sides of the ball but a lot of star power on offense in Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Williams and Darren Evans.
But the perfect cure to inexperience at quarterback is experienced running backs, wide receivers and offensive line. The Hokies return their top five receivers, four offensive linemen and running back David Wilson, who you need to familiarize yourself with now.
He’s going to be in the Heisman discussion this year. You heard it here first.
Normally the Hokies play some ridiculously good team poised to make a national title run to open the season, but not this year. Plus they get Miami and North Carolina at home. I went into it in a lot more detail in my last article.
If they can beat Georgia Tech in Atlanta, Virginia Tech has a very realistic chance of going undefeated in the regular season.
10. Missouri
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The Tigers are returning 10 offensive starters and seven defensive starters and everyone is raving about James Franklin, their new quarterback.
The Zoo gives Missouri a great home-field advantage which will help against Oklahoma State and Texas but it’s road trips to Arizona State, Texas A&M and Oklahoma that will be extraordinarily difficult.
In all likelihood, the Tigers will lose two games but the reason they’re in over Oklahoma State is a defensive mindset that was new in 2010.
They gave up 16 points a game in the Big 12 and that’s really, really impressive. If they can keep that focus throughout the season, Missouri may have enough to pull some tough upsets and earn its way to a national title.
9. Texas A&M
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The Aggies would be much higher on this list if it weren’t for that atrocious bowl performance.
They are returning 10 offensive starters and nine defensive starters who will benefit from another year under Mike Sherman and Tim DeRuyter. Their offensive line was very young in 2010 but they still went 9-4 and 5-1 under Ryan Tannehill.
But what happened against LSU? Was the pressure too much? Is Les Miles really that good at prepping for bowl games?
Whatever the reason is, the Aggies need to find it and correct it because 2011 could be a really special season.
Playing at Oklahoma is one of the most difficult tasks in all of college football, but the rest of their tough games are at home and they play Arkansas in Arlington. The pieces are there but they just need to come together correctly.
8. Boise State
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Another year, another Boise State debate. A big part of me wanted to leave the Broncos in the honorable mention section with teams like Stanford, Oklahoma State and Arkansas, but there’s too much of a chance for another undefeated season.
Playing at Georgia is going to be a challenge, but they’ll be looking for revenge and the Bulldogs don’t look to be special this season. They also get Tulsa, Nevada, Air Force and TCU on the blue turf where they’re practically invincible.
But the losses of Titus Young and Austin Pettis are gigantic as are Ryan Winterswyk, Jeron Johnson and Winston Venable. People are giving the Broncos way too much credit for those losses. This isn’t last year when everyone and their mothers had starting experience.
The schedule, though, forces Boise to be on the list and I like Georgia and Air Force to at least give the Broncos a game. Moral of the story: Boise State has a 50-50 chance of going undefeated and that may be enough in 2011 to send them to the national title.
7. Notre Dame
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It’s nice seeing Notre Dame actually compete again because they were just becoming the annoying team that got special treatment.
Brian Kelly is a winner and Michael Floyd is a beast and the Irish return nine starters on offense and eight on defense and only allowed 20 points per game in 2010.
There will be a great quarterback battle in the offseason and defensive improvements still need to be made, but Irish eyes could be smiling this season.
Until they look at a schedule: Notre Dame plays nine bowl teams from 2010 including Stanford and Michigan State—and USC makes a would’ve been 10.
At Michigan will be a huge test for the defense and it will go a long way in determining whether or not the Irish belong this high on the list or if they’ll flop like they have in recent years.
6. South Carolina
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The Gamecocks should be the runaway preseason favorite in the SEC East and for good reason.
They’re returning a boatload of talent including Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffrey, who are both just filthy.
In order to take the next step, Steve Spurrier will need better quarterback play and the competition is open. But the SEC East isn’t very good and South Carolina only has to play at Georgia, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Arkansas. They won’t play a brutal SEC schedule but it won’t be a cakewalk either.
Mississippi State could be a trap game but the Gamecocks will be ready for Arkansas. If they can make it through their road games and a visit from Florida, South Carolina should have no problem going undefeated in the regular season.
5. Florida State
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In the first year under Jimbo Fisher, the Seminoles won 10 games and they’re poised to bring in the top recruiting class in the country. And they bring back nine starters on both sides of the ball, which doesn’t include quarterback E.J. Manuel who got a lot of experience with Christian Ponder’s injuries.
A visit from Oklahoma is going to be one of the most anticipated games of the 2011 season and Florida State is looking for revenge.
Given the rapid improvement under new coaches, it would seem that even bigger things are in store for the Seminoles this season. They have to play at Florida and Boston College, but the ACC Atlantic has no other real threats. They don’t even play Virginia Tech or North Carolina in the regular season.
Florida State will be favored in every game except against Oklahoma. Missouri pulled off the upset against the then-No. 1 Sooners: Is it the Seminoles’ turn?
4. Oregon
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Oregon loses a lot on both sides of the ball, but what made the Ducks dangerous in 2010 were LaMichael James, Darron Thomas and Chip Kelly. Those three guys return.
Coach Kelly is an offensive genius who turned speed into a national championship runner-up.
The problem this year will be the season opener against LSU. It’s essentially a bowl game for Les Miles and he is one of the best at prepping for those big games.
The lines need to be rebuilt, the top receivers are gone and so are the best linebackers. But I believe in Chip Kelly and he’ll have his team ready for LSU. Whether they win it or not is certainly up for debate but with their only road challenge at Stanford, a win against the Tigers could put the Ducks right back in the national title game.
3. LSU
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The Tigers are bringing back 10 starters on offense and eight on defense from a team that finished eighth in the polls. That’s why Les Miles isn’t at Michigan.
Jordan Jefferson is really hit or miss as a quarterback and Stevan Ridley is gone to the NFL, which leaves a lot to be desired from the skill positions. But the numbers don’t lie: two losses to BCS bowl teams while allowing only 18 points and scoring 30 a game.
Outside of the opener against Oregon, LSU will go to West Virginia, Ole Miss and Tennessee, and Alabama.
The biggest bonus for the Tigers is that they have a bye week before playing the Crimson Tide. However, so does Alabama. The game will almost certainly determine the winner of the SEC West and likely take one team out of the title hunt and put one in it.
2. Alabama
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One of the biggest differences between LSU and Alabama is a returning quarterback. Greg McElroy was a winner in every sense of the word and his replacement is still to be determined, but both possibilities are good enough to start on 90 percent of teams in the country.
The downfall of the Tide last season was inexperience on defense but that will no longer be an issue in 2011. They’re also returning four of their offensive linemen and the backfield is now in sole control of Trent Richardson.
Nick Saban is one of the best coaches in the game and he’ll have his fair share of tests including at Penn State, Florida, Mississippi State and Auburn as well as Arkansas and LSU at home.
The Tide won a national title in 2009 with a new quarterback and an experienced defense. Their schedule is the only thing in the way of them doing it again.
1. Oklahoma
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Everything is in place for the Oklahoma Sooners in 2011. There are 14 players with starting experience on offense and 15 on defense. Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles are both coming back. They get Texas A&M and Missouri at home and they are going to be the runaway favorites in the Big 12.
The only two things to worry about are Oklahoma State and Florida State but even those shouldn’t be too bad. The ACC refuses to win big games and Bob Stoops will have an inside track on his brother’s defense. And Oklahoma State will be without its star running back or offensive coordinator.
Injuries plagued the Sooners in 2008 and that is the only way Oklahoma won’t be favored in every game it plays this season.
It’s not that the Big 12 will be bad in 2011, it’s just that everything seems to be lining up for Oklahoma, from talent to its schedule.
For more up to date news on Virginia Tech, ACC and national college sports, follow me on Twitter @VT_CaceClosed.
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