Humanitarian Bowl 2010: 10 Things You Need To Know About NIU vs. Fresno State
The regular season may be over, but the blue turf of Boise gets one more chance to shine. Boise, Idaho will help kick off the 2010-2011 college football bowl season on Dec. 18 by playing host to the uDrove Humanitarian Bowl.
The 14th annual edition of the game features Mid-American Conference (MAC) runner-up Northern Illinois versus perennial Western Athletic Conference (WAC) contender Fresno State. This is the first time the schools have played each other since 1991, with the series tied 2-2.
The pairing of two non-AQ conference schools may not have obvious national appeal, but a quick look shows a number of storylines for this prime-time showdown. Here are 10 things you need to know about the matchup of the Northern Illinois Huskies and the Fresno State Bulldogs:
1) Northern Illinois Will Have a New Coach
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Northern Illinois has become the latest team to lose its head coach between the end of the regular season and its bowl game. Coach Jerry Kill resigned on Sunday to take over the head coaching job at Minnesota, just hours after Northern Illinois accepted its invitation to the Humanitarian Bowl. Kill replaces Tim Brewster, who was fired on Oct. 17 in the midst of a 3-9 season for the Golden Gophers.
Ironically, it was Kill that helped Brewster get fired in the first place. Northern Illinois beat Minnesota 34-23 on Sept. 25, the only win for the Huskies in three tries this season against AQ-conference schools. It was the third straight loss for the Golden Gophers, whose streak reached six games before Brewster was let go.
Linebackers coach Tom Matukewicz will coach the Huskies in this game. An official record of teams with an interim head coach in bowl games is unavailable, but common sense says there is likely to be a letdown. Last year Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly left the team for Notre Dame shortly before their appearance in the Sugar Bowl, and Florida mauled the Bearcats 51-24.
2) The Huskies Are Still Slim Favorites
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Even with the loss of their head coach, Northern Illinois was still a one to three-point favorite in almost all Vegas sports books as of this morning. It's not hard to see why after looking at their season.
The Huskies went 10-2 in the regular season, including 8-0 in MAC play, and won the MAC West title. They were 13th in the country in scoring at 37.8 points a game and 16th in scoring defense at 19.1 points a game. The Huskies were ranked 24th in the AP poll after a 71-3 evisceration of Eastern Michigan to end the regular season.
But, of course, there is the matter of the conference title game. NIU entered the Dec. 3 game as double-digit favorites against East division champions Miami of Ohio (9-4, 7-1 MAC), but lost 26-21 on Austin Boucher's TD pass with 33 seconds left. Add in losing their head coach two days later, and that's a tough way to head into bowl season.
3) Fresno State Is Pretty Good Too
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At first glance, Fresno State's resume may just seem okay: 8-4 record, 5-3 in conference play, fourth in the WAC and outscored their opponents by less than one point a game (30.0 to 29.2). But take a look at their four losses, in chronological order:
Sept. 25 – 55-38 @ Mississippi State (SEC, 8-4)
Oct. 9 – 49-27 vs. Hawaii (WAC, 10-3, 24th in Associated Press poll)
Nov. 13 – 35-34 vs. Nevada (WAC, 12-1, 13th AP)
Nov. 19 – 51-0 @ Boise State (WAC, 11-1, 10th AP)
That's three losses to nationally ranked teams—including one by a single point—and one to a pretty good SEC team. They won every other game, including two against AQ-conference schools Cincinnati (Big East, 4-8) and Illinois (Big Ten, 6-6). With Boise State, Nevada and Hawaii all leaving the WAC in the coming seasons, Fresno State may become the new king of the conference.
4) Both Teams Are Keeping Bowl Streaks Alive
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Northern Illinois is playing in a bowl game for the third consecutive season—the first time in school history this has happened. They're 2-3 all time in bowl games, losing last season to South Florida in the International Bowl and in 2008 to Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl.
Fresno State, meanwhile, is appearing in a bowl game for the fourth straight year and in their third Humanitarian Bowl. They won the game in 2004 against Virginia 37-34 in overtime (when it was the MPC Computers Bowl) and beat Georgia Tech 40-28 in 2007.
5) Both Teams Are Run-First, But the Huskies Have a Big Edge
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Northern Illinois ranked seventh in the country this season with 264.8 rushing yards a game, at 6.2 yards per carry (YPC); nearly two thirds of their plays were runs (553 rushes to 302 passes). The attack was led by senior Chad Spann, who gained 1,293 yards on 262 carries (5.3 YPC) with 20 touchdowns. He had a trio of three-touchdown games and gained 223 yards just 15 carries against Minnesota.
NIU goes up against an ordinary Fresno State run defense that allowed 158.8 yards per game on the ground (66th in the country) and 4.40 YPC (77th).
The Bulldogs were run-first as well with 459 carries to 326 pass attempts, but ranked 55th in the country with 157.0 rushing yards a game (4.1 YPC). Sophomore Robbie Rouse was solid for the most part (191 carries for 1097 yards and eight TDs while missing two games), but did have two spectacular efforts: 43 carries for 286 yards and a touchdown against Louisiana Tech, and 26-217-2 the following week against Nevada. He may need to be spectacular again against a Huskies defense that ranked 27th in yards allowed (130.5/game) and 52nd in yards per carry (4.00).
6) Northern Illinois Has the Better Quarterback As Well
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Fresno State senior Ryan Colburn is almost exclusively a passing quarterback—and to be fair, he's pretty good. Colburn completed 199 of 322 passes (61.8 percent) for 2,529 yards (7.85 YPA) and 21 touchdowns to nine interceptions on the season; his 143.7 NCAA passer rating (96.4 NFL rating) ranked 29th in the country. More importantly, he came up big against power conference teams, throwing for 11 TDs, two INT and 10.22 YPA against the Bulldogs' three AQ-school opponents.
Northern Illinois junior Chandler Harnish, on the other hand, may be the best kept secret of the current crop of dual-threat quarterbacks. After missing the the season opener, Harnish came back to complete 172 of 266 passes (64.7 percent) for 2,230 yards (8.38 YPA) with 20 TDs and 5 INT, ranking 16th in the country with a 156.1 NCAA passer rating (108.1 NFL). In his spare time, he ran 127 times for 764 yards (6.0 YPC) and five TDs, including three 100-yard games.
7) The Pass Defenses Aren't As Close As They Seem
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In terms of sheer volume, the two pass defenses are almost identical. Fresno State gives up 201.2 yards/game to rank 34th in the country, while Northern Illinois is 35th at 202.1 yards/game. But efficiency stats are a better indicator of success, and it is here where the Huskies are king.
The Huskies have a negligible edge over the the Bulldogs in opponents' completion percentage (57.3 percent to 57.7 percent), but they give up half a yard less per attempt (6.4 to 6.9) and fewer touchdowns (13 to 19) while getting twice as many interceptions (16 to 8). Fresno State does get more sacks per game (2.92 to 1.85). The end result, though, was a 113.8 defensive passer rating for Northern Illinois (24th) compared to a 129.0 rating for Fresno State (65th).
8) Losing the Humanitarian Bowl May Not Be a Bad Thing
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Pigskin punditry says that you want to end the season with a bowl win to building up confidence and recruiting for the next season. But losing the Humanitarian Bowl may be a blessing in disguise.
Boise State lost the game in 2005 after winning their first three attempts; they went undefeated the following year and scored their huge Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma. They added another undefeated season and Fiesta Bowl win (over TCU) in 2009 as well.
Nevada basically inherited Boise State's spot in the game after this; they lost in 2006 and 2008, finishing the latter season at 7-6. They improved a 9-4 in 2009 while losing the Hawaii Bowl. In 2010, the Wolfpack are now 12-1, which included ending the Broncos' national title dreams.
Non-WAC teams have gotten in on the act too. Georgia Tech (ACC) lost to Fresno State in 2007 to cap a 7-6 season; they went 9-4 in 2008, ranking as high as 14th in the AP poll before ending the season 22nd. In fact, the only recent loser to fall off is Bowling Green, which went 2-10 this season after losing last year to Idaho.
9) Winning the Humanitarian Bowl May Not Be a Good Thing
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Okay, so the Humanitarian Bowl losers do pretty well afterwards. But winning it has to count for something, right? Consider how the last four Bowl winners did in the following season:
- Miami (ACC), 2006 – went 5-7 in 2007
- Fresno State (WAC), 2007 – went 7-6 in 2008, lost New Mexico Bowl
- Maryland (ACC), 2008 – went 2-10 in 2009
- Idaho (WAC), 2009 – went 6-7 in 2010
That's a combined record of 20-30 and one bowl appearance—and even Fresno State had a two game drop-off from their 9-4 record in 2007. Whoever wins this game may want to avoid ladders and black cats in the offseason.
10) The X-Factor: Illinois
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So far the matchup seems to be a wash—the statistics favor Northern Illinois, while history and intangibles point to Fresno State. But there's a third team that may already have predicted the outcome: Illinois.
The Fighting Illini (Big Ten) were the only team to play both the Huskies and Bulldogs this season. On Sept. 18, they beat Northern Illinois 28-22; on Dec. 3, they lost to Fresno State 25-23. If this is any indication, look for the Bulldogs to run their Humanitarian Bowl record to 3-0 and the WAC's record to 8-6.
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