Iowa Bowl Outlook: The Hawkeyes Are at a Fork in the Road

The Iowa Hawkeyes' season hinges almost entirely on this weekend's game against Michigan State.

Does that sound a little melodramatic? How about drastic?

Break down what's at stake and where Iowa is right now in the pecking order, and you might change your mind.

What's at Stake

Before I get too deep into where Iowa might end up when the dust settles on the 2010 regular season, I think it's important that we're all on the same page. There have been some changes in the bowl tie-ins for the Big Ten over the next four seasons.

Here are the bowls that the Big Ten is tied to, in the order that they will be choosing their representatives:

1. Rose Bowl: January 1, 2011, Pasadena, California; Big Ten/BCS vs. Pac-10/BCS.

2. Capital One Bowl: January 1, 2011, Orlando, Florida; Big Ten vs. SEC.

3. Outback Bowl: January 1. 2011, Tampa, Florida; Big Ten vs. SEC.

4/5. Gator Bowl: January 1, 2011, Jacksonville, Florida; Big Ten vs. SEC.

4/5. Insight Bowl: December 31, 2010, Tempe, Arizona; Big Ten vs. Big 12.

6. Texas Bowl: "late December," Houston, Texas; Big Ten vs. TBD.

7. Dallas Football Classic: January 1, 2011, Dallas, Texas; Big Ten vs. Conference USA (or possibly Big 12).

Two things should quickly grab your attention.

First, the Big Ten has five bowl games scheduled for January 1, 2011. That's not even including a potential BCS at-large bid that could be awarded to a Big Ten team. 

Second, three of those January bowl games are slated against SEC opponents. The arguments about which conference is better can be settled on the field. Gotta love that!

So, where does Iowa fit into all of this?

It can't be stressed enough that the Hawkeyes are at a fork in the road. This coming weekend's match against Michigan State can quickly eliminate a couple of options on that list. I'm getting ahead of myself, though.

Best-Case Scenario: Rose Bowl

Already, I can hear hordes of Michigan State and Wisconsin fans saying "shyeah, right." I hear you. The Hawks aren't exactly at the forefront of the Rose Bowl race. They're not that far behind though either.

As it sits right now, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Purdue all have one conference loss. Only Michigan State has yet to be knocked off. And who does Iowa play this week? Right, Michigan State.

Should Iowa come away with a victory Saturday, there could be a four-way race for the conference crown (assuming the others win as well, which might be relying too heavily on Purdue). You can't count Iowa completely out of that race.

I laid all of this out already, so I don't think I need to get into the details again here. 

In a nutshell, Iowa needs to win out, and they need Wisconsin to lose another game.

That's asking a lot, given that Wisconsin has seen the toughest part of their schedule. However, the Badgers still have to face Northwestern and Michigan. They can't get too comfortable with where they are and where they're going.

Also, it's no small feat for the Hawkeyes to go undefeated from here on out. Michigan State, Northwestern and Ohio State all loom ahead, and all have the tools to beat Iowa.

Still, it's not as far-fetched as many might think. One slip by the Badgers could open the door for the Hawkeyes to get to Pasadena.

There are other scenarios, including one that has Michigan State and Boise State going to the national title game, but Wisconsin would have to lose more than once over the course of the last four weeks for that to make a difference.

Since we're trying to keep this in the realm of reality, let's go ahead and toss that one out.

If Iowa drops to Michigan State Saturday, forget about Pasadena altogether. The sun, moon, center of the universe and left eye of Hayden Fry's cat would all have to align just right with the tilting of the never-gonna-happen nebulous for Iowa to smell any roses not planted in Iowa City.

Worst-Case Scenario: Dallas Football Classic

Now I can hear Big Ten fans everywhere saying, "Nice analysis there, Stix. The best case is the best bowl, and the worst case is the lowest selection. Did you burn a brain cell on that one?"

Once again, this is how pivotal this game Saturday could be.

If Iowa drops to Michigan State, the Ohio State match suddenly starts looking even more ominous than before. Also, Northwestern has been a festering thorn in Iowa's side over the last half decade. 

Throw on top of that the fact that Indiana has a very good pass offense and Iowa's pass defense isn't its best attribute. The Hoosiers nearly buried the Hawkeyes last year before Ricky Stanzi mounted a 28-point fourth quarter turnaround.

Imagine a complete collapse by Iowa. Reeling from the Michigan State loss, Iowa drops to Indiana. In complete disarray, they drop again to Northwestern. They already may not match up well against Ohio State.

Suddenly, Iowa's dream season becomes a nightmare, leaving fans jaw-dropped and furious.

Right now, there's a very real possibility that there will be more bowl eligible Big Ten teams than there are bowls with Big Ten tie-ins.

Iowa travels very well and could leap over a number of teams during bowl selections. However, if they collapse over the second half of the season and finish 6-6, bowls will be looking everywhere but Iowa City for a team to represent the Big Ten.

Don't expect that big of a collapse, though. It's more possible than Hawkeye fans would like to admit, but it's not that likely.

It's not all that unlikely, though, that Iowa could lose to Michigan State, Northwestern and Ohio State to finish 7-5. In that case, welcome to either the Dallas Football Classic or the Texas Bowl.

The Dallas Football Classic is a January 1 bowl, but it won't carry the same prestige as the other January bowls because it has the last selection.

Face it, Iowa fans: Iowa could get to the DFC with less help than they'd need to get to the Rose Bowl.

What About a BCS At-Large Bid?

As strange as it may sound, it's a real possibility too. Follow along for a moment and I think you'll see what I mean.

Going into the match with Michigan State, Iowa is ranked No. 18 in the BCS. Michigan State is No. 5, Ohio State is No. 11 and Wisconsin is No. 10.

The computers like Michigan State and Wisconsin right now. The Spartans are undefeated with a big win over Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the Badgers have faced and beaten two consecutive ranked teams. They're both pretty hot right now.

If Iowa knocks off Michigan State, we could expect the Spartans to fall at least five spots in the standings (based on similar losses by other teams). Likewise, we could expect Iowa to jump roughly five places.

That would put Michigan State around No. 10 and Iowa around No. 13, even with two losses. Ohio State won't move much even if they slaughter one-win Minnesota. Wisconsin doesn't play this week, so they won't move more than one position in either direction.

All four teams should be ranked within five or six positions of each other.

Ohio State goes on to face Penn State (unranked) and then faces Iowa before ending against Michigan (unranked).

Iowa, like Ohio State, faces one more ranked opponent after Michigan State (OSU). 

All four teams should continue to float just around and outside the Top 10 over the next couple of weeks. Iowa will only be a few positions behind Wisconsin and Michigan State.

Now, suppose Iowa goes on to beat Ohio State. The Hawkeyes jump another three or four positions while Ohio State drops the same amount.

That might be enough to leapfrog over both Wisconsin and Michigan State. Why?

Strength...of...schedule.

Through the course of the season, Iowa will have faced five ranked opponents (Arizona, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State), going 3-2 (.600). *Remember, the computers figure in teams that were ranked at the time the game was played, not final standings.

Wisconsin will have faced three ranked opponents, going 2-1 (.667), and Michigan State will have faced three ranked opponents, also going 2-1 (.667).

While Wisconsin would have a better win percentage versus ranked opponents, Iowa will have faced more of them. Believe it or not, that matters more than a handful of percentage points.

Also, despite losing to Wisconsin in the head-to-head, that loss was by one measly point. The human types will likely continue to look at the two teams as nearly identical and rank them exceptionally close together.

The same holds true for Iowa as compared to Michigan State, except Iowa would get the additional nod from the human types for having won the head-to-head.

The computers will like Iowa more and more as the season goes along (assuming they win, that is).

It's not impossible that Iowa could actually be the highest-ranked Big Ten team come December. The big question then would be whether or not that's enough.

Again, this whole shebang only works if Iowa wins out. Drop this weekend (or any other time) and the whole house of cards comes crashing down.

What's a Realistic Expectation?

Like the computers, let's throw out the top and bottom here and get down to brass tacks.

At this point, Iowa has faced three ranked opponents and has a 1-2 record against them. They're 5-2 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten.

Based on the way Iowa has played against ranked teams this year, I think it's too much to ask for them to knock off both Michigan State and Ohio State. If they do, expect a letdown against someone like Northwestern.

That's just the way Iowa rolls most years.

Assuming that Michigan State, Wisconsin and/or Ohio State end the season no worse than 11-1, Iowa won't be going to Pasadena. They also won't likely get a BCS at-large bid.

At 9-3, it's also not likely that Iowa will get an invite to the Capital One Bowl. Even though they could pick a 9-3 team over a 10-2 team if they chose to, the Cap One people loudly say, "Homey don't play that." They stick firmly to taking the team with the best overall record.

That means that, if Iowa does go 9-3, and as long as the Big Ten does get a BCS at-large bid, I look for Iowa to go to the Outback Bowl.

It's a nice January bowl that has been good to Iowa in the past. It's also a chance for Iowa to take on an SEC opponent and help make a statement on the conference's behalf against their toughest rival conference.

The Gator Bowl is also a possibility, depending on what Michigan does.

Either way, it's a January bowl. Either way, it's a slight letdown over what was expected coming into the season.

It all hinges on what they do this weekend, though. Win over Michigan State and stay in the hunt for big things. Lose and spend the last month of the season fighting for a consolation prize.