Breaking Down the Big Ten, Part Seven: The Michigan State Spartans
The Michigan State Spartans might be the most enigmatic team in all of college football.
Every year, it seems like they win a game they shouldn't, lose a game they shouldn't, then they collapse just when you think they are going to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat.
No matter who has coached them, they have so often seemed to vacillate between brilliance and mediocrity.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
This, despite the fact that from an historic Big Ten recruiting standpoint, they have only trailed behind Ohio State and their in-state rival Michigan (and more recently, Penn State).
During their Big Ten history—that is, since they joined the Big Ten in 1949—the only two coaches that have brought some semblance of consistency were Duffy Daugherty and more recently, George Perles.
And even Perles' teams had inexplicable collapses and plenty of down periods, not to mention the train wreck that was the end of his run.
This inconsistency has never been more apparent than during the tenure of MSU's last two coaches—Bobby Williams and John L. Smith.
For this reason, after Smith was fired, Michigan State made sure to hire a defensive-minded coach with a more iron-fisted approach to football than their previous two coaches.
Such a coach would return consistency and order to a program that, over the previous twenty years could fairly be described as flighty.
Needless to say, Mark Dantonio fit the bill. For the first two years of his tenure, he seemed to be moving the Spartans in the right direction.
In 2007, the Spartans went 7-6, and received a bowl berth for the first time since 2004.
In 2008, they went 9-4, and ended the season ranked No. 24. Although they lost the Capital One Bowl to the Georgia Bulldogs, they headed into 2009 as a dark horse to win the Big Ten championship.
Then, MSU did what it has so often done. It began the year beating Montana State, and then lost close games to Central Michigan, Notre Dame, and Wisconsin.
At that point, just when a great many figured the bottom would fall out, they came back and beat Michigan, who was ranked at the time.
They proceeded to top Illinois and Northwestern, and despite a 4-3 record, they found themselves in the driver's seat for the Big Ten title. They simply had to beat No. 6-ranked Iowa, as well as two of the remaining three Big Ten teams on their schedule.
They lost to Iowa on the last play of the game , and the next week they lost to Minnesota. They wound up finishing the year 6-7 with a loss to a beleaguered Texas Tech team in the Alamo Bowl.
Of course, MSU went into the bowl with problems of its own .
Now, as Mark Dantonio and the Spartans head into 2010, they seem to be at a crossroads.
Was 2009 just a blip on the map, or was it a sign of the same old, unpredictable Spartans?
Offense
In 2009, everybody talked about Terrelle Pryor's amazing potential, Ricky Stanzi's fourth-quarter heroics, and Tate Forcier's late season slip.
What wasn't mentioned was that after the now-departed Daryll Clark and Joey Elliot, MSU's Kirk Cousins—along with Wisconsin's Scott Tolzien—was the most efficient quarterback in Big Ten play.
What began the 2009 season as a sizable question mark will be a very big asset heading into 2010.
What is even more impressive is that Cousins, who will be a junior, did so well despite the Spartans' mediocre rushing game.
MSU was fifth in the conference in rushing, which is certainly respectable. However, given that Mark Dantonio's offensive priority is to establish the run, the Spartans would have preferred to have done better in that category.
Cousins will have to do without his top receiving target, Blair White. White, and his 70 receptions in 2009, have graduated. It will be difficult to replace White's productivity, but the Spartans have the talent to do it.
Aside from White, all of their other top receivers have returned. Most notable are juniors B.J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin, senior Mark Dell, and converted quarterback Keith Nichol .
Out of the three, Cunningham was the most productive last season, logging 48 receptions for 641 yards. He could very well be Cousins' go-to receiver.
However, the biggest upside lies with Keshawn Martin . While he only had 18 receptions in 2009, he also logged 411 yards for a 22.83 yards per catch average.
Throw in 18 rushing attempts for 218 yards (12.17 ypc), a 6.95 punt return average, and a 28.91 kick return average and you've got a play-maker.
Look for the Spartans to try to get the ball in his hands via screens, end-arounds, and anything offensive coordinator Don Treadwell can think of.
In the backfield, sophomores Edwin Baker and Larry Caper logged respectable 2009 campaigns. They combined for 895 yards, which averaged out to 4.36 yards per carry.
The problem was that they, and the Michigan State rushing attack, tended to disappear against the Big Ten's better defenses.
Against Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, and Wisconsin (MSU didn't play OSU, the other top-five defense), the Spartans logged 363 yards for 3.2 yards per carry . This will have to improve if MSU is to reach the upper echelon of the conference.
Pushing Baker and Caper will be true freshmen Leveon Bell and Nick Hill , both of whom enrolled early to try to get onto the field as soon as possible.
Whoever starts, the running won't be easy, as Michigan State has a lot of questions on the o-line. They graduate three starters and four of their top seven linemen.
Due to injuries last season , a number of potential starters on this year's o-line gained some experience.
However, they will have some big shoes to fill. Despite the mediocre performance in terms of rushing, MSU let up the least amount of sacks in Big Ten play with 14.
As of the spring game , the starting line is as follows (from left to right): Senior D.J. Young, junior Joel Foreman, senior John Stipek, sophomore Chris McDonald, junior Jared McGaha.
All indications are the left side of the line is set, but the right side is still wide open.
Overall, Michigan State had the third best scoring offense in the conference, putting up 29.6 points per game. They enter 2010 loaded at the skill positions. However, it could be the performance of the o-line that makes the difference this season.
I expect the Spartans to do everything in their power to give the inexperienced line room to grow. Expect to see three and even four-wides, screens, draws, and formations that force the defense to keep their safeties and linebackers out of the box.
Nevertheless, if MSU hopes to maintain their offensive position in a stacked Big Ten, the o-line will need to gel and gel quickly, because teams are going to throw blitzes at them like nobody's business.
Defense
Last year's Michigan State team is proof that one great player does not make for a great defense.
The great player in question is the Spartan's All-American linebacker, Greg Jones .
The defense in question was seventh in Big Ten scoring defense . They were also atrocious against the pass, ranking last in the conference and 100th in the nation, giving up over 250 yards per game.
This will need to improve if the Spartans are going to be competitive in 2010.
One would be inclined to point fingers at the Spartan backfield for the mess that was the pass defense.
Certainly, they deserve much of the blame, but consider that the 2009 MSU defense returned three of their four 2008 backfield starters. Then consider that the 2008 Spartan defense ranked seventh in conference and 60th nationally .
One would then logically conclude that either the new starter—safeties Marcus Hyde and Trenton Robinson, both of whom started at times—was absolutely horrible, the secondary suffered a lot of injuries, or the problem lay elsewhere.
As it happened, Hyde/Robinson were pretty lousy, but they weren't so horrible as to be personally responsible for 40 yards per game.
The secondary did suffer its share of injuries, but again, nothing to account for 40 yards per game.
This brings me to the defensive line. The defensive line had to replace three of four starters from the previous year.
It would be untrue to say MSU had trouble getting to the quarterback, as the Spartans were third in the conference in sacks. However, they did so by blitzing a lot. The linebackers had more sacks than the defensive linemen.
This put a great deal of pressure on the coverage and especially the safeties.
One does what they have to do to generate pressure, but I would argue this was a tactical error on the part of Dantonio. Too much man-coverage allowed receivers to take advantage of a frankly ill-equipped secondary.
I recall watching the last play of the MSU-Iowa game last year, and being shocked—and thankful—that the Spartans rushed seven men, and gave Iowa man-coverage on that play.
If you watch the video, you will notice that Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi could have probably passed to any of his four receivers, and they all would have had a fairly good chance at making the catch.
I suppose this is Dantonio's style; he will live by the sword or die by the sword.
Nonetheless, I would argue that in this case, his scheme just didn't fit his players' skill sets; he didn't have backs that could consistently play on an island.
The question is, will he have those players in 2010?
As MSU graduates one safety and one corner, Dantonio has two choices: He can temper his blitzing tendencies, and give the coverage more help, or he can hope for improvement in the backfield's man-coverage.
Perhaps, sophomore cornerback Johnny Adams, who seems to have locked up the open cornerback spot opposite senior Chris L. Rucker, is one of the answers.
Regardless, the pass defense will have to improve if MSU is to have a better season.
Meanwhile, the strength of the d will lie in the front seven, where Michigan State graduates two: Lineman Trevor Anderson and linebacker Brandon Denson.
Denson shouldn't be too difficult to replace, but Anderson's loss will be felt.
One possibility for replacing him might be five-star recruit William Gholston , the jewel of the Spartan's 2010 class.
Moreover, due to the experience on the rest of the d-line as well as the emergence of sophomore lineman Jerel Worthy , it is possible Anderson's absence will be minimized.
Either way, Michigan State was fourth in the conference against the run last season. In 2010, I expect them to be in the top three.
However, it will be their performance against the pass that defines their season.
Schedule
The Spartans start off with a home game against Western Michigan, who look to be one of the front-runners in the MAC West this year. Also, the strength of the Broncos is in the receiving corps. Needless to say, against the Spartans' questionable secondary, that could turn a seemingly safe win into a battle.
After this, MSU plays Florida Atlantic at Ford Field in Detroit. FAU looks to be competitive in the Sun Belt , and once again, their strengths match up against the Spartans' weaknesses.
After these games, Notre Dame comes to town. Pay particular attention to how the Spartans' o-line does in this one, as Notre Dame will be returning its entire defensive line and six of their front seven.
This is followed by a game against the FCS's Northern Colorado.
The Big Ten season starts in East Lansing against what looks to be a very powerful Wisconsin team. After this, MSU goes on the road for the first time, travelling to Ann Arbor to take on in-state rival Michigan.
They come back home to play Illinois. This is followed by a road game at Northwestern, and then a road game at Iowa.
The Spartans come back home for Minnesota, after which they get a bye week.
They close out the season at home against Purdue, and at Happy Valley in the battle for the most important and storied trophy in all of college sports.
MSU misses mighty Ohio State and not-so-mighty Indiana.
Frankly, the only games on Michigan State's schedule that I would classify as a lock either way are Northern Colorado, Minnesota, and Illinois.
Assuming they win those three games, that leaves nine games on their schedule that are very winnable, and also very losable.
Intangibles
Last season, Michigan State lost three games by three points or less. Winning the close ones will be something MSU would like to turn around in 2010.
However, that task is made considerably more difficult by the graduation of kicker Brett Swenson , who holds just about every Spartan kicking record that a Spartan kicker can hold. That is saying quite a lot when you consider that Morten Andersen is an MSU alum.
After the spring game, freshman Kevin Muma and sophomore Dan Conroy were neck-in-neck for the starting job. Whoever wins it will need to step up immediately.
On the bright side, all of the other special teams positions are locks, with All-American candidate Aaron Bates punting and Keshawn Martin handling returns.
Also of note, at minus-88 per game, Michigan State had the second worst turnover margin in Big Ten play last season.
Typically, one would expect that to turnaround in 2010. However, the still-questionable pass rush and defensive backfield, as well as a questionable offensive line puts that in doubt.
Moreover, the Spartans had the most penalty yardage, the worst third down conversion rate, and the second-worst time of possession in conference games.
Ultimately, all three of these statistics are connected, and all of them probably revolve around the o-line.
Penalties, more often than not, come from offsides and blocking fouls. Needless to say, a penalty can make a third-and-four into a third-and-nine.
A third-and-nine is considerably more difficult to convert than a third-and-four.
In effect, assuming the team doesn't convert, the less-rested defense has to come on the field more quickly than it otherwise would have.
This is something that MSU has to clean up. However, with three new offensive linemen, it won't be easy.
Worst Case Scenario
The questionable MSU secondary falls victim to either FAU or Western Michigan. Meanwhile, the questionable MSU o-line falls victim to Notre Dame. In effect, the Spartans end the out-of-conference at 2-2.
They proceed to get decimated by arguably the top two offenses in the Big Ten—Wisconsin and Michigan.
They have their inexplicable win of the year against a good Northwestern team, but their inexplicable loss of the year comes against floundering Illinois. They also beat Minnesota, but lose to Iowa.
Heading into the last two weeks of the season, they know they have to win both to go to a bowl.
They beat Purdue, but lose to Penn State, finishing the year at 5-7, leaving Mark Dantonio sitting squarely on the hot seat heading into 2011.
Best Case Scenario
MSU sweeps through the OOC. Their young o-line begins to take shape, and they establish their running game early.
Meanwhile, the secondary is not great, but it's better than last season.
They have some scares against FAU and Notre Dame, but last year's losses are very fresh in their minds, and they pull out the wins.
They lose their Big Ten opener to a very good Wisconsin team, but they surprise a lot of people by winning on the road against Michigan.
They go on to beat Illinois, Northwestern, and Minnesota, but they lose on the road to Iowa.
They come back with wins against Minnesota and Purdue. However, Penn State beats them in a close one, and the Spartans finish with a very respectable 9-3 record. They receive a bid to a New Year's Day bowl.
My Prediction
I would be inclined to expect Michigan State to stumble in one of their early games, but I think last year's loss to Central Michigan is still fresh in their collective mind.
In effect, I think they will sweep their out-of-conference games. Just how good they look in that sweep will depend on the offensive and defensive lines and the defensive backfield.
If those groups come together, they could be 4-0 and leave a lot of pundits talking as they head into the Big Ten season.
I think they will lose to Wisconsin. I just don't think they have the power to go toe-to-toe with this season's Badgers.
Also, I originally predicted that they would beat Michigan on the road, but I have retracted that. I don't like that game, as it will be the inexperienced o-line's first road game. I expect it to be close, but penalties will kill the Spartans.
They will come back and beat Illinois and Northwestern, before losing to Iowa in Iowa City.
They then beat Minnesota and Purdue, before losing at Penn State to end the season.
Final Record: 8-4
MSU receives the Big Ten's bid to play in the Insight Bowl against a team from the Big 12.
I just see too many glaring question marks (that should have been answered last season) on this Spartan team, for them to be able to beat the Big Ten's elite teams this season.
In fact, I'm probably giving them them the benefit of the doubt against Northwestern and Notre Dame. Those games look to be the opponents' strength against MSU's weaknesses, and I could easily see the Spartans losing those games.
However, with most of the major pieces of 2010's offense returning, the Spartans will look very strong heading into 2011.
That is, if they don't collapse before then.
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