Conference Realignment: Frank the Tank and What Syracuse Should Do

I clearly do not see the Big Ten as the unstoppable, irresistible force as do many of its fans.  

In contrast to me is the blogger Frank the Tank, who has had fans of the Midwestern league all a-flutter for months, thinking that Notre Dame, Texas, and any other school coveted by the league that closed the Rose Bowl would leap at the chance to join.

The Tank's recent entry, After the Conference Realignment Maelstrom , though, is a real downer for the Big Ten (plus-two).

Poor Frank seems to realize that Notre Dame cannot be forced to join the Big Ten, but apparently he remains convinced that the Big Ten could take just about any other school it wants.

I especially like this assertion, "Other markets, such the DC/Baltimore area that could be added with Maryland, are nice but not necessarily enough to justify a larger expansion." 

Anybody who thinks the Big Ten would not take Maryland if it could is simply wrong.

Adding Maryland would make, as the Tank notes, DC and Baltimore Big Ten home markets, and Maryland has at least three times as many basketball fans around Philadelphia as does Penn State.

Maryland would do a great deal for the Big Ten, but it cannot take Maryland.

And if his reference to Duke regarding the valuelessness of basketball rivalries means he thinks the Big Ten could take North Carolina, he is crazier than he seems otherwise.

If the Big Ten had even a snowball's chance in Hell of going to 14 by adding Maryland, UVA, and UNC, it would be pressing that case right now, and Nebraska would still be kissing Longhorn flanks.

Those three ACC schools would be the perfect addition for the Big Ten: a contiguous league stretching into the South. They would gain two new state universities—more prestigious than all Big Ten state schools but Michigan—the South's oldest football rivalry, and the basketball equivalent of Notre Dame football.

But the Big Ten cannot take those, or any, ACC schools—not even if agreeing to expand to 18 and also offering Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina State, and Virginia Tech.

Basketball talk gets us to Syracuse. The Tank notes that he assumed the 'Cuse would be on the Big Ten list, with its great basketball following and history.

He raises the issue of Kansas apparently being left out of all super-conference plans as proof that no stable BCS league will add any school that it sees as basketball-first.

While the Tank is correct that football is king and that basketball will play virtually no role in subsequent conference realignment (save for non-major conferences, for which basketball fan bases and success will matter a great deal—that is how Memphis will improve its lot), he is overstating his case for at least one school: Syracuse.

The reason the Tank is incorrect about Syracuse is that college basketball is bigger in the northeast than is college football, and that is triply true of New York City.

That is the reason that though Big East basketball has always been first rate, while BE football has always been unstable, its members itching to flee to any other BCS league. 

If the Big Ten cared half a fig for allowing Penn State one eastern rival, it would have added Syracuse and worked to make the northeastern interest in college basketball turn towards the Midwest.

But the Big Ten is endlessly enamored of huge land grant universities, and powerful Big Ten interests do not want the conference to be any less midwestern than the addition of Penn State suggested it could become.

Here is what Syracuse should know by now:

No. 1: The Big Ten does not want any private school other than Notre Dame.

No. 2: BE football will always remain unstable.

No. 3: As the plight of Baylor and BYU this summer marks, private schools able to play major college football at the highest levels, which requires major conference membership, are a dying breed. As Syracuse is a private school, and as No. 2 above is true, then Syracuse must get out of the BE and into a stable BCS league, or else face becoming the next SMU.

The only option for Syracuse is the ACC. The good thing is that the ACC already wanted Syracuse, but brilliant politicking by Virginia Tech and the state of VA left the 'Cuse stuck in the BE. 

Also good for Syracuse is that powerful ACC people continue to feel guilt because of Syracuse getting left out. 

Obviously, Syracuse, unless it is resigned to becoming Tulane's sports peer, has to strive to persuade the ACC to expand. And because Syracuse is a private school with a small football fan base, it cannot help deliver large TV deals for football, nor can its addition help the prestige value of ACC football with college football fans nationwide.

Yes, Syracuse has the largest basketball fan base in the northeast, and that, added to the already large fan bases for ACC basketball, especially the Philadelphia and NYC TV markets, would make the ACC the king of northeastern college basketball.

But that is not the only value Syracuse would have for the ACC. The ACC wants a network primarily to expose its many great non-revenue sports, and to get that, the ACC must expand, adding two new ACC states with two new fan bases that would show interest in subscribing to an ACC network.

I have written about a possible ACC network already.

What is important to emphasize is that the ACC would be happy with a network that pays minimal returns monetarily, as long as the conference gets good exposure for all its sports. 

The scenario then is this: the ACC must expand if it has any shot of starting a conference network, the ACC knows the network it would want could never rake in the big bucks, and the ACC will not expand if it costs current members any money.

That means that if Syracuse wants to save itself from whatever will eventually gut BE football, it needs to be figuring out how it can help the ACC secure a network and perhaps add a little money to each ACC member institution's coffer.

Syracuse needs to do the leg work and the brain work, deciding which Big East member from among (in alphabetical order) UConn, Pitt, and Rutgers would be best paired with it to join the ACC. Syracuse needs to work ESPN—which seems to have about a million Syracuse grads as employees—persuading it that if the ACC adds Syracuse, to both serve the role for an ACC network, similar to how Fox Sports serves the Big Ten Network, and to increase its payments to the ACC under the new contract to include two new members.

What would seal the deal would be to secure Notre Dame as a partner, meaning an ACC/NotreDame Network, which could become very profitable. If Notre Dame is going to remain independent in football, having a network for its non-revenue sports will prove invaluable.

And a one-school network will never fly, not even for Notre Dame, unless it carries several live football and basketball games. However, this would mean that Notre Dame is not getting enough major network money from and exposure for football and basketball to remain independent in the former.

The Orange back is to the wall. The future is not bright, unless Syracuse can get into another BCS conference.

That will not happen without Syracuse working to make it so.