Sugar Bowl 2018: Key Storylines and Predictions for Alabama vs. Clemson

Alabama and Clemson have provided college football fans with two classic championship games the past two seasons, and the third round in the Sugar Bowl has a chance to be another great game. 

According to OddsShark.com, Alabama enters the game as a 2.5-point favorite, despite being the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff. 

Vegas might be giving the slight edge to the Crimson Tide, but there are storylines that could favor each team in this game. Here's a look at a few key areas that could decide the outcome, followed by a prediction for the 2018 Sugar Bowl.

Can Clemson Force Alabama to Throw the Ball?

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After a shaky freshman year in 2016, in which Jalen Hurts tossed nine interceptions and lost five fumbles, Alabama's first-year offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has taken the ball out of Hurts' hands this season. 

As a freshman, Hurts averaged just over 25 pass attempts per game, a number that has dropped to just 18.7 in 2017. 

The more conservative game plan has worked, as Hurts has thrown just one interception all season. However, it limits Alabama's ability to run away from teams. 

The Tide played a handful of close games against Texas A&M, LSU and Mississippi State this season—all games in which the running game was relatively held in check, and Hurts was unable to make up the difference with his arm. 

In the season finale against Auburn, Hurts' struggles were further exposed when Alabama was forced to play from behind. Hurts was unable to generate any kind of rhythm in the passing game, and completed just 13-of-23 attempts against the Tigers. 

The Iron Bowl wasn't the first time we have seen Hurts struggle once the Tide were forced to throw the ball, however.

While Alabama nearly pulled off the victory in last year's title game, Hurts was unable to get anything going in the passing game against Clemson's defense. He finished the game just 13-of-31 for 131 yards. 

These stats only matter if Clemson can stop the Alabama running backs Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough, but the nation's 13th-ranked rushing defense should be up for that challenge.

If Clemson slows down the Alabama run game and takes an early lead, the Tide could be in trouble.

Will Kelly Bryant Protect the Football?

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Alabama likely won't be able to shut down the nation's 21st-ranked scoring offense completely, but the Tide can pull off the victory if it can force Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant into mistakes. 

Like most of Saban's team, this Crimson Tide defense is among the best in the country at forcing turnovers and enters bowl season ranked eighth in the nation in turnover margin at +12. 

Clemson has done a decent job protecting the ball this year, but this is a new stage for first-year starter Kelly Bryant. Alabama defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt will likely show Bryant a variety of looks which he may not have seen before, and in a close game just one mistake could swing the outcome. 

Alabama won the turnover battle in each of the previous two meetings between these teams. If they win again, it will likely result in a trip to play for the national title. 

Final Prediction

Both teams have a clear path to victory if they play a clean game and avoid mistakes, but the edge has to go to Clemson based on the quarterback play. 

Bryant is coming off the ACC Championship Game in which he completed 23-of-29 attempts against a dominant Miami defense—a performance head and shoulders above anything Hurts has demonstrated this season. 

Both teams boast dominant defenses with the ability to force the opposing quarterback into mistakes, but Bryant has provided more reasons to trust in his performance in big games. 

Prediction: Clemson 27, Alabama 20