AAC Championship Game: Memphis vs. UCF Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

The Central Florida Knights own 10 victories in a row over the Memphis Tigers, including a 40-13 romp earlier this season. Central Florida hopes to make it 11 in a row over Memphis and secure the title as the best Group of 5 team in the country, when the teams meet in the AAC championship game Saturday afternoon on the Knights' home field in Orlando.

College football point spread: The Knights opened as 7.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 48.2-41.8 Knights (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Memphis Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers are 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS since that loss to Central Florida back in September, finishing their regular season last week with a 70-13 blowout of East Carolina. Memphis scored touchdowns on its first six possessions last week, led 49-0 at the half and cruised home from there, easily covering a 30-point spread.

On the day, the Tigers tallied 635 yards of offense, 333 on the ground and 302 through the air. They also got a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown from Tony Pollard, who's averaging a ridiculous 44 yards per return this season.

So Memphis has outgained six of its last seven opponents, five of them by 170 yards or more. Two weeks ago, the Tigers put up 66 points on SMU; just before that, they scored 41 against Tulsa; and just before that, they posted 56 on Tulane.

At 10-1 on the season, a victory Saturday might garner Memphis a New Year's Day bowl bid.

Why the UCF Knights can cover the spread

The Knights just completed a perfect regular season with a crazy 49-42 victory over a pretty good South Florida team last Friday. UCF spotted the Bulls the game's first touchdown, scored the next 21 points, trailed 34-28 through three quarters but ultimately won it on a 95-yard kickoff return for a score by Mike Hughes that broke a 42-42 tie with just over a minute to go.

For the game, the Knights produced 533 yards of offense, as quarterback McKenzie Milton threw for 373 and four touchdowns.

On the season, Central Florida has outgained nine of its 11 opponents, eight of them by 100 yards or more. And, at 11-0 overall, UCF probably won't make the College Football Playoff, but a victory Saturday would earn the Knights a New Year's Day bowl bid.

Smart pick

Central Florida outgained Memphis by more than 200 yards in that victory back in September and easily covered as a six-point favorite. But the Tigers are a better team right now than they were that day. The Knights might still win this game, but the betting value sides with Memphis.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in four of Memphis' last five games against Central Florida.

Central Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last five games after consecutive wins.

The total has gone under in five of Central Florida's last six games in Week 14.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.