Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Odds, Football Betting Pick

Louisville got off to a great start last year, but as word got out, the spreads got tougher, and the Cardinals are now 0-5 against the spread over their last five games and 2-8 ATS over their last 10. Louisville will play as road chalk when it opens ACC action against North Carolina on Saturday afternoon in Chapel Hill.

College football point spread: The Cardinals opened as six-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 36.6-29.0 Cardinals (College football picks on every game)

Why the Louisville Cardinals can cover the spread

The Cardinals opened this season last Saturday with a 35-28 victory over what looked like an improved Purdue team on a neutral field in Indianapolis. Louisville spotted the Boilermakers an early 7-0 advantage and trailed 28-25 early in the fourth quarter but scored the last 10 points of the game to escape the upset bid.

On the evening, the Cardinals outgained Purdue 524-344 and won the ground battle by a 146-51 margin. Defending Heisman winner Lamar Jackson connected on 30 of 46 throws for 378 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 107 yards, while junior wide receiver Jaylen Smith caught eight balls for 117 yards. Meanwhile, the Louisville defense forced four Boilers turnovers and returned one interception for a touchdown.

The Cardinals might have had an easier time against Purdue if they hadn't lost two fumbles inside the Boilers' five-yard line and committed 16 penalties.

Why the North Carolina Tar Heels can cover the spread

The Tar Heels are looking to rebound this week after losing at home to California last week 35-30. North Carolina fell down to the Bears 7-0, scored the next 17 points to take a 17-7 lead and still clung to a 24-21 advantage into the fourth quarter. But the Heels then gave up the next 14 points and didn't have time to fully recover.

UNC produced 440 yards of offense, 219 on the ground and 221 through the air. But it also turned the ball over three times, once in field goal range, and missed a field goal. Meanwhile, the Heels defense held Cal to 106 yards on 35 rush attempts but gave up two 50-plus yard touchdown passes. Carolina is 19-13 ATS at home under coach Larry Fedora.

Smart pick

Jackson, of course, gives Louisville a big advantage in the QB comparison, but as mentioned above, the Cardinals continue to play against tough spreads.

On the other side of this matchup, North Carolina hopes to come up with a better defensive effort than last week. Also, the last time the Tar Heels were getting double-digit points at home, they beat Florida State outright last October. Louisville should win this one, but the smart money at online sports betting sites lies with the home dog.

College football betting trends

Louisville is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against North Carolina.

The total has gone over in four of Louisville's last five games.

North Carolina is 1-3 ATS in its last four games against its conference at home.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.