College Football Players Who Will Put Up Ridiculous Stats in 2017
Records were made to be broken, and there are a lot of college football players who will be putting up ridiculous numbers in an attempt to break single-season records in 2017.
First things first, please note that this is not intended to be a list of the top candidates for the 2017 Heisman. Studs like Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Saquon Barkley, Jake Browning and Bo Scarbrough don't even appear on the following slides, even though each is expected to be the primary cog of one of the best offensive machines in the nation.
Rather, we're looking for the players most likely to finish the season atop the various statistical categories.
In several cases on the national Venn diagram, there are players who are both Heisman candidates and statistical freaks of nature. Nowhere is that more apparent than in reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson.
Louisville's do-it-all QB was a human-highlight reel as a sophomore, averaging nearly 400 yards and 4.0 touchdowns per game between his arm and his legs. Though he struggled late in the season thanks to his Swiss cheese-imitating offensive line, expectations are that his numbers will be just as outlandish in 2017.
But Jackson goes without saying as the top candidate for this list. What follows are the other nine guys most likely to join him as names you'll be searching for in weekly box scores and national leaderboards throughout the upcoming season.
For kicks and giggles, we've even listed a prediction for each player's stats, so one could check back in a few months and grade the list for accuracy.
Players on the following slides are listed in no particular order, other than to equally disperse the three running backs and three quarterbacks.
Derrius Guice, RB, LSU
1 of 9
2016 Stats: 183 carries, 1,387 rushing yards, 15 TDs; nine receptions, 106 yards, one TD
Leonard Fournette finished sixth in the 2016 Heisman race before being selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft, but it was Derrius Guice who led LSU and the SEC in total rushing yards.
Of course, Fournette's injuries had a lot to do with that, as he only appeared in seven games and didn't record more than 19 touches in a game after mid-September. But Guice was the biggest reason LSU was able to take it easy on Fournette before sending him off to the pros.
Guice's numbers listed above are impressive, but get a load of what happens when you take out the four games in which he had five carries or fewer. In the other nine, he averaged 7.6 yards per carry and 143.9 yards per game, scoring at least one TD in each of those contests.
Those numbers are almost identical to what Florida State's Dalvin Cook posted in 2015 (7.4 YPC, 140.9 YPG) prior to becoming one of the top preseason candidates for the 2016 Heisman.
Now the clear-cut No. 1 back for the Tigers, expect Guice to put up huge numbers as a junior.
2017 Prediction: 307 carries, 1,967 yards, 21 TDs; 19 receptions, 199 yards, two TDs
Richie James, WR, Middle Tennessee
2 of 9
2016 Stats: 105 receptions, 1,625 yards, 12 TDs; 38 carries, 339 yards, four TDs
When a player averages better than 150 yards from scrimmage over the course of a season, that player is almost always a running back. According to the stats database at Fox Sports, there have been 42 players in the past six seasons who appeared in at least eight games while averaging at least 150 yards from scrimmage.
The breakdown of those 42 players is: 41 running backs and one Richie James.
The sophomore wide receiver from MTSU leads all returning players in both receptions and receiving yards. But with the starting QB injured for the regular-season finale and unable to throw James the ball, the Blue Raiders made him the Wildcat QB for 207 rushing yards and three scores.
In that game, he also had four catches for 120 yards and a fourth score and threw for another 76 yards for one of the most ridiculous individual box scores you'll ever see. As a result, the Blue Raiders scored a school record 77 points in the win, demonstrating how crucial it is for them to get James the ball by any means necessary.
Dating back to September 2015, James has at least 73 receiving yards in 23 consecutive games, averaging an even 120.0 yards through the air in those contests.
And with last year's star running back I'Tavius Mathers (2,194 yards from scrimmage) out of the picture, James should get even more targets than ever—possible joining Trevor Insley (2,060 in 1999) as the only players in FBS history with at least 2,000 receiving yards in a season.
2017 Prediction: 127 receptions, 1,975 yards, 19 TDs; 18 carries, 107 yards, one TD
Luke Falk, QB, Washington State
3 of 9
2016 Stats: 443-of-633, 4,468 passing yards, 38 TDs, 11 INT, 145.6 QB Rating
In 15 seasons as a head coach between Washington State and Texas Tech, Mike Leach's teams have averaged 54.3 pass attempts per game. In fact, the only season in which they averaged fewer than 50.8 attempts per game was in 2005 when TTU's 49.0 attempts per game was still good for most in the nation.
So, unless Leach is suddenly relieved of his duties with the Cougars in the next few months, it's a safe assumption Luke Falk will throw for at least 4,400 yards for a third consecutive season.
How far above that baseline will he be able to go as a senior?
Falk loses two of his most trusted receivers in Gabe Marks and River Cracraft. The duo combined for 299 receptions and 3,402 yards over the last two seasons. But all that means is it's time for guys like Tavares Martin Jr. and Isaiah Johnson-Mack to shine.
Heck, after the 2003 season, Leach's Red Raiders lost their starting QB and three of their top four receivers—one of which was Wes Welker—who combined for 250 receptions and 3,251 yards that year. It didn't matter. The following season, they still averaged 399.7 passing yards per game, which was 61.1 more yards than No. 2 on that list.
As long as Falk stays healthy, he should lead the nation in total passing yards.
2017 Prediction: 474-of-697, 5,023 passing yards, 43 TDs, 10 INT, 160.1 QB Rating
Kamryn Pettway, RB, Auburn
4 of 9
2016 Stats: 209 carries, 1,224 rushing yards, 7 TDs
Two years ago, Kamryn Pettway was an unknown fullback with one reception and no rushing attempts.
Last year, he averaged 122.4 rushing yards per game—136.0 if you ignore the opener against Clemson in which he didn't have a touch.
Regardless of which number you use, it ranked top 12 in the nation and is the highest mark among all returning players.
Pettway suffered a quad injury in early November. As a result, he missed Auburn's next two games and was hardly the same for the final two games he played. Prior to the injury, though, he was a workhorse, averaging 24.7 rushes per game and 6.4 yards per carry—measuring out to 158.0 yards per game.
Though Kerryon Johnson (895 yards, 11 TDs) is still in the picture, there's no question that Pettway is the main guy at Auburn when healthy. In his final four games before the injury, he had 121 carries for 770 yards and six TDs compared to 46 carries for 245 yards by Johnson.
There will be plenty of competition in the SEC from LSU's Derrius Guice, Vanderbilt's Ralph Webb and take your pick from Alabama's backfield, but don't be surprised if Pettway leads the conference—and possibly the nation—in rushing yards.
2017 Prediction: 304 carries, 1,798 rushing yards, 17 TDs
Harold Landry, DE, Boston College
5 of 9
2016 Stats: 50 tackles, 22.0 tackles for loss, 16.5 sacks, seven forced fumbles, one interception
Defensive stats in college football are criminally underappreciated. Heck, ESPN doesn't even list defensive stats on team pages. But Harold Landry is one individual defender you're going to want to keep an eye on in 2017.
An elite edge-rusher for Boston College, Landry led the nation in both sacks and forced fumbles last season. With seven in the latter category, he became the first player to eclipse six forced fumbles in a season since Georgia's Jarvis Jones had seven in 2012.
For a little more historical context on what Landry is bringing back to the Eagles, he is one of just eight players in the past seven years to record at least 15.0 sacks in a season. The other seven either graduated or declared for the NFL draft that offseason, making Landry arguably the most noteworthy returning defender since some linebacker had 16.5 sacks in 2009 and came back for one more year.
His name was Von Miller. You may have heard of him.
Before you declare me a nut case for mentioning Landry and a Super Bowl MVP in the same breath, go take a look at some of those way-too-early 2018 mock drafts. Good luck finding one that doesn't have Landry projected as a first-rounder. ESPN's Todd McShay has him slotted as the No. 9 overall pick.
One more solid season and there's no reason Landry can't climb even higher than that.
2017 Prediction: 58 tackles, 24.0 tackles for loss, 12.5 sacks, five forced fumbles
Quinton Flowers, QB, South Florida
6 of 9
2016 Stats: 207-of-331, 2,807 passing yards, 24 TDs, 7 INT, 153.5 QB Rating; 1,530 rushing yards, 18 TDs
Unless your name is Lamar Jackson, 2016 was a rough year for trying to get national attention as a dual-threat QB. The Heisman winner put up video-game numbers, accounting for 51 TDs and more than 5,100 total yards. Most importantly, he got the party started early with at least 360 yards and five scores in each of his first four games, including the Week 3 upset of No. 2 Florida State.
From that point forward, every other QB was playing for silver.
But after a comparatively slow start, Quinton Flowers closed out the season much better than Jackson did.
Flowers' final five games: 218.0 passing yards, 157.0 rushing yards, 3.8 TDs, 0.4 turnovers, 5-0 record
Jackson's final five games: 204.2 passing yards, 115.0 rushing yards, 2.6 TDs, 1.8 turnovers, 2-3 record
The switch at head coach from Willie Taggart to Charlie Strong probably isn't much to worry about with Flowers. If anything, Strong should be overjoyed to have a QB who can both run and throw, rather than subbing Shane Buechele and Tyrone Swoopes in and out and giving away the offensive game plan.
South Florida will likely open the season in the AP Top 25 and will almost certainly run up the score in its first three games against San Jose State, Stony Brook and Connecticut. Be sure to take a look at the box score after each of those "contests" to laugh at the absurdity of Flowers' stat lines.
2017 Prediction: 246-of-391, 3,352 passing yards, 28 TDs, 9 INT, 157.1 QB Rating; 1,699 rushing yards, 19 TDs
Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State
7 of 9
2016 Stats: 136 carries, 1,018 rushing yards, 11 TDs; 15 receptions, 224 yards, 3 TDs; 2 kick-return TDs
Last year, the college football nation fell in love with San Diego State RB Donnel Pumphrey as he approached and eventually broke Ron Dayne's FBS record for career rushing yards. His 2,133 yards as a senior also rank 11th on the all-time single-season record list.
But is it possible he wasn't even the best running back on the Aztecs roster?
Pumphrey averaged an impressive 6.1 yards per carry, but his backfield mate Rashaad Penny accounted for 7.5 yards per carry and 16 total touchdowns. Though Penny averaged less than 10 rushes per game, he went over the century mark five times, including a 208-yard game against Nevada.
If you don't feel his rushing yards alone are good enough to expect a huge year, how about the fact that he averaged 31.2 yards per kickoff return, ranking fourth in the nation in that category? Or that San Diego State has ranked 10th-to-last nationally in passing yards per game in each of the past two seasons?
Penny is faster than greased lightning, and he's finally getting the chance to be the featured back in this offense. As long as he can physically hold up for 20-25 carries per game, he could put up "Christian McCaffrey" numbers in total yards from scrimmage.
2017 Prediction: 297 carries, 1,835 rushing yards, 19 TDs; 32 receptions, 415 yards, 4 TDs
Daniel Carlson, K, Auburn
8 of 9
2016 Stats: 28-32 field goals, 44-44 PATs, 134 points; one rushing TD
Let's go ahead and start this one by asking what you're all thinking: What in the world is a kicker doing on the list?
There's a good chance you weren't aware Auburn's Daniel Carlson led the nation in points scored per game by a kicker in 2016—thanks in large part to that Week 2 rushing touchdown. It's also likely you didn't know that Carlson has a chance at setting some career kicking records this season.
Goodness knows I had no idea before researching this piece.
But if there's one kicker whose name you're going to know by the end of the 2017 season, it's Carlson.
For starters, the man has never missed an extra point in 141 career attempts. That might not sound like a big deal, but there are only eight kickers who were perfect on PATs (minimum: 80 attempts) between 2015 and 2016. Aside from Carlson, the only one who was also perfect in 2014 was Jake Elliott of Memphis, whom the Cincinnati Bengals drafted in the 5th round last month—the second-highest pick used on a kicker in the past six years.
Carlson is also solid from more than two yards away, holding a career field-goal percentage of 83.1, including nailing 9-of-13 from at least 50 yards.
He isn't going to become the all-time leader in that category—currently Alex Henery at 89.5 percent—but there's a chance he goes above and beyond the two records that Zane Gonzalez set last year. Carlson is 27 made field goals away from tying Gonzalez's mark of 96. He is also 140 total points behind Gonzalez's record of 494.
2017 Prediction: 28-35 field goals, 47-48 PATs, 131 points
Nic Shimonek, QB, Texas Tech
9 of 9
2016 Stats: 38-of-58, 464 yards, six TDs, one INT, 163.4 QB Rating
Everyone else on this list put up impressive numbers last season. In the case of Nic Shimonek, though, we're betting on the system rather than the player.
Whether it was Kliff Kingsbury, B.J. Symons, Sonny Cumbie, Cody Hodges, Graham Harrell, Taylor Potts, Seth Doege, Davis Webb, Baker Mayfield or Patrick Mahomes behind center, Texas Tech has ranked top-seven in the nation in passing yards per game in 16 consecutive seasons, including seven years in first place in the category.
Last year, the Red Raiders averaged 463.0 passing yards per game.
The next-closest team was Louisiana Tech at 363.4.
Were it just one year or a streak of four years of dominance under the same quarterback, we wouldn't think much of it. But at this point, it's almost a given that Texas Tech's QB is going to throw for at least 4,000 yards.
No need to sweat the fact that Shimonek threw for just 464 yards last season. Symons threw for 545 yards in his first three seasons combined before becoming the starter as a senior and setting the FBS record for passing yards in a season (5,833). Combie and Hodges had similar explosions when they were finally given the chance to benefit from the system that makes every QB look like Joe Montana.
2017 Prediction: 447-of-674, 4,579 yards, 40 TDs, 12 INT, 143.2 QB rating
Unless otherwise noted, stats are courtesy of Sports Reference and cfbstats.com. Recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com.
Kerry Miller covers college football and college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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