Kramer's Playoff Notebook: For Now, Selection Committee in No-Win Situation
It was easier when the computers had all the power. At least we knew why things were the way they were, even if we didn't care for such methods. We knew the BCS in all its algorithmic madness was not perfect. But we also understood where those numbers originated.
That is no longer the case these days—now that the College Football Playoff has a selection committee in charge of such tasks.
On Tuesday, this room full of human beings released its updated Top 25 following one of the most chaotic college football Saturdays in recent memory.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Given the fact three of the previous Top Four teams lost, the latest poll wasn't all that shocking. This was more about sorting through the piles of wreckage, and there were plenty of them.
But Tuesday night also reminded us that at some point—perhaps some point soon very, very soon—the selection committee will be dealt an impossible hand.
Outside of No. 1 Alabama, there is a case to be made for at least three teams in the second spot. Maybe more. For the first time, there are paths for teams that may be without conference championship opportunities to crash the party.
There is a case to be made for and against teams throughout the Top 15 and perhaps even below it. And all we know at the moment is there are four vacancies to fill.
On the College Football Playoff website, smack-dab in the middle of the frequently asked questions, the criteria for selecting teams to the postseason is listed: "The selection committee chooses the four teams for the playoff based on strength of schedule, head-to-head results against common opponents, championships won and other factors."
Consider how little information this provides. Certainly, the committee has a set of guidelines it follows. We know conference championships matter a great deal—as is evident by the eight conference champions out of eight playoff teams over the last two years. We know it doesn't merely toss names out, either.
But at what point does a conference championship no longer suffice when that team is compared to a team with a powerful, championshipless resume? When exactly does the playoff committee abandon such protocols and make the decision that a certain team has done enough or a conference champion hasn't?
It has yet to be forced to consider this in two years. This year, it's a possibility.
Here's what we know: There is one dominant team right now. There are then a handful of talented teams with flaws to both their squads and resumes.
Unless the next few weeks feature just the right amount of destruction—leaving us with four top teams and a separation before everyone else—the playoff committee will have to make its first unpopular decision. Heck, it might have to make more than one.
The process has been shockingly smooth and seamless. But it no longer feels that way, and because the committee's methods are still so foreign, that outrage we have been waiting for might emerge this year.
Here are some thoughts on the latest playoff standings, including a look at the Big Ten, the Big 12's prospects and one dark horse with a small glimmer of hope.
Big Ten Holds the Keys to Playoff Chaos
With four of the first eight teams in the latest playoff rankings, the intrigue starts in the Big Ten. It has to at this point.
The fact Michigan was essentially given a mulligan—staying at No. 3 following a loss to Iowa—says everything.
If the Wolverines win out, they're in. Not much to discuss here. This scenario would be the cleanest for the other conferences and also, of course, Michigan.
It gets weird, however, if Ohio State beats Michigan and Penn State finishes the season without another loss. If that's the case, and Wisconsin and Penn State play for the Big Ten championship, the Big Ten could very well be the first conference to get two teams in the playoff.
The selection committee clearly likes both the Badgers (No. 7) and Nittany Lions (No. 8). One would assume a conference championship would be enough to propel either to playoff consideration, if not more.
Much of this discussion will be impacted by what happens to Clemson and Washington. If the Tigers win the ACC and the Huskies win the Pac-12 without another loss, they seem destined to hear their name called Dec. 4. But if one (or both) does not, that could leave the door wide open.
Would the committee leave out a one-loss Ohio State team with an out-of-conference road win over Oklahoma? That's what Buckeyes quarterback J.T. Barrett asked aloud this week.
The answer—with a potential win over another Top Five team in the Wolverines still out there—is probably not, though we'll see if it gets to that.
Alabama Has a 1-Game Playoff Cushion
Here's what Nick Saban should do one of the next few weekends: Instead of playing Chattanooga or Auburn, he should take his team to play laser tag or have a pizza party.
For starters, laser tag is great. Pizza parties are also quite good. And because Alabama has the widest gap on the field any team has ever enjoyed in the playoff's brief lifespan, it can essentially not show up to a game and still be No. 1.
The likelihood of this happening seems remote. It doesn't seem like it's in Saban's wheelhouse.
But the Crimson Tide's stranglehold on this playoff is one of the more underdiscussed topics. Their dominance is assumed, which says a lot about the team.
While we saw two squads lose this week and not fall out of the Top Four, this is different. Michigan and Clemson depended on further chaos to stay in the conversation.
Alabama could lose to Chattanooga and still be a playoff team. Heck, it might still be the top seed.
For the first time, a one-game cushion—if not more—exists.
Here's How the Big 12 Makes the Playoff
So you're a Big 12 team and are interested in making the playoff. Makes sense.
Here's a step-by-step guide on what needs to happen next:
Step 1: Win out. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, this one is for you. You will clash over these next few weeks, which is good for someone. If one of these three teams wins its remaining games—and Oklahoma seems to have the strongest case—then step one is complete.
Step 2: Hope for conference championship game chaos. Focus on the ACC and the Pac-12; those are most important. If Clemson and Washington do not end up winning these games, that would be an enormous boost.
Step 3: Hope Michigan wins out. The Wolverines could simplify the committee's choices by taking care of business. That would all but kill the possibility of the Big Ten getting two teams in the playoff.
Step 4: Hope Louisville loses. Its game Thursday at Houston might be your best chance. Tune in.
Step 5: Hope the committee values your conference championship even though it doesn't include a conference championship game. Given the Big 12's status, this one is important. Because there is no extra game to be played, which could hurt, the overall conference performance will have to suffice. Oklahoma, without a conference loss to date—not to mention the most "brand" prestige—could make the biggest impression here.
It's by no means impossible. The No. 9 Sooners, No. 11 Cowboys and No. 14 Mountaineers all have a chance. But each team's room for error is all but gone. One will have to be perfect—and also receive some help.
The Ultimate Dark Horse the Playoff Would Adore
The term "dark horse" is important. The "ultimate" before it references the tremendously tough road ahead. Keep this in mind before proceeding any further.
Unlikely? Goodness yes. Impossible? Let's not go that far...yet.
USC's dramatic climb is one of the great stories of the second half of this college football season. After beating Washington, the Trojans were ranked No. 13 by the selection committee, which is staggering considering what their season looked like four weeks in.
But a good story and a playoff team are two separate things.
To make this even a remote possibility, Colorado and Utah need to lose another game apiece. The Buffaloes have a one-game advantage over the Trojans in the conference standings, though USC owns the tiebreaker. The Utes and Trojans each have two losses, and Utah owns this tiebreaker.
The above is necessary for USC to represent the South in the Pac-12 Championship Game, which is another must to go deeper down this rabbit hole.
On top of that—and this part should be obvious—the Trojans need to win out and look dominant. From there, they'd still need chaos. Losses everywhere. Carnage. Wreckage. More of what we just saw. Just keep it coming.
It's not much different from the Big 12's blueprint to make the playoff, though USC also needs the Big 12 to crumble. That will give it a shot, at least.
In all likelihood, this won't develop. There just isn't enough time, and that third loss will be too much to overcome.
But the sport, looking for anything that could provide a ratings bump, would not mind in the least if one of its blue bloods, led by one of the most talented young quarterbacks in the nation in Sam Darnold, found a way to crash this party. Nope, not one bit.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
