Preseason College Football Rankings 2016: Predicting Amway Coaches Top 25 Poll
With media days underway and preseason camp just around the corner, college football coaches are already getting busy even with the 2016 season still more than a month away. And for about half of those at the FBS level, they've got one other duty coming up that requires their attention.
The Amway Coaches' Poll is voted on by 64 FBS head coaches, a list that will be released after the first poll comes out on Aug. 4. This will be a weekly task for all voters, but the preseason poll tends to be the most challenging because it's based as much on how teams performed last season as how they're expected to fare this fall.
Projecting what this poll is going to look like is just as difficult, but we're willing to give it a try. We previously did the same with the Associated Press preseason poll, which is voted on by media members, and now we're giving the coaches poll a shot.
Take note: This is how Bleacher Report predicts the Amway preseason rankings will look, not how our staff of writers would rank them. Our own preseason poll will come out just before the 2016 season begins.
Others Receiving Votes
1 of 26
Arkansas (Not ranked in final 2015 poll)
Head coach Bret Bielema has steadily improved the Razorbacks since first arriving in 2013, and this fall could be when he gets them in contention for the SEC West title. Even finishing middle of the pack in that superdeep division is enough to warrant a high ranking, though for now they'll start just on the outside.
Boise State (Not ranked)
A perennial power among the non-power teams, Boise won the Fiesta Bowl in 2014 but slipped a little last year because of too many turnovers in critical games. The Broncos should be more careful with the ball this fall and be in play for the "Group of Five" major bowl bid if they can reclaim the Mountain West title.
Florida (25th)
The Gators won 10 games and the SEC East title last season, Jim McElwain's first as coach, but they were a shell of their earlier selves at the end because of a depleted offense. Getting that unit to perform consistently is what will determine if Florida can defend its crown or fall back into the pack.
Washington State (Not ranked)
A nine-win team a year ago thanks to the nation's top-ranked passing attack, head coach Mike Leach's latest version will again feature plenty of aerial numbers thanks to the return of quarterback Luke Falk and receiver Gabe Marks. The Pac-12 North is looking like the deeper side this season, and if the Cougars can hold up on defense, they will contend.
Wisconsin (21st)
The Badgers won't start out in the Top 25, but winning their opener will surely cause them to jump in. Wisconsin opens against LSU at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, marking the third consecutive year it starts out against an SEC team. (It lost to Alabama in 2015 and LSU in 2014.)
25. Miami (Florida)
2 of 26
2015 record: 8-5
Final Amway ranking: Not ranked
The real indicator will be how this season goes, but it's not a stretch to say Miami was one of the big winners from the annual offseason coaching carousel. The Hurricanes fired Al Golden midway through 2015 and had months to identify possible replacements when in reality, all they needed was Georgia to part ways with a coach who was still motivated to win.
Mark Richt, a former Miami quarterback, has breathed new life into The U, but to this point, that's only been in the form of publicity and recruiting. On-field results is where it will really matter, though his work so far should be enough to get the 'Canes into the Top 25.
24. North Carolina
3 of 26
2015 record: 11-3
Final Amway ranking: 15th
North Carolina had an 11-game win streak in 2015, but how that season began and ended is what lingers. A disappointing loss to South Carolina to start the year and setbacks to Clemson and Baylor to finish kept what was a good performance from being a great one.
Head coach Larry Fedora's mission now is to prevent last season from being an outlier, something that requires getting the same production from new quarterback Mitch Trubisky as predecessor (and school career total offense leader) Marquise Williams. He also needs his defense, which for much of last year was making major strides, to shake off the way it fared down the stretch in allowing 42.7 points per game of the final three contests.
The Tar Heels will learn a lot right off the bat, opening against Georgia in a pseudo-neutral-site game in Atlanta.
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23. UCLA
4 of 26
2015 record: 8-5
Final Amway ranking: Not ranked
Last season's UCLA team featured a highly regarded freshman quarterback surrounded by veterans at the skill positions and throughout the defense. Josh Rosen parlayed that into a monster first year, but now his expectations go beyond statistics, as he's among the team leaders as well as one of the more experienced Bruins.
Coach Jim Mora's relationship with his passer is a unique one, going back and forth between praising him and letting air out of the hype bubble. "While convincing you that Rosen is a surefire future No. 1 draft pick, Mora can also have you question whether he might one day be a bust, too," CBS Sports' Ben Kercheval wrote.
UCLA needs to be able to move past being a team with potential to one that can come through, particularly at home. Mora is 7-6 in his last 13 games at the Rose Bowl.
22. Oklahoma State
5 of 26
2015 record: 10-3
Final Amway ranking: 19th
Oklahoma State was 10-0 before dropping its final three games last year, including to Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl, but 2015 still has to be considered a success and something the Cowboys hope to build on this season. It helps they return almost their entire offense, the most notable exception being one half of a unique run/pass quarterback tandem in the departed J.W. Walsh.
Still around is Mason Rudolph, the vertical half of that duo, as well as big-play receiver James Washington. They've got the passing part down pat, now it's up to OK State to establish a run game after ninth in the Big 12 on the ground last year.
Barry Sanders Jr., the son of an all-time great, could be the answer after transferring from Stanford.
21. Oregon
6 of 26
2015 record: 9-4
Final Amway ranking: 20th
Oregon is an example of why judging a team's immediate future based on its recent past isn't wise. Otherwise, the Ducks would probably struggle to land in the “others receiving votes” section after their epic collapse to TCU in the Alamo Bowl.
That was then and this is now, a present in which Oregon should have another potent offense that, like in 2015, will likely be centered around a graduate transfer quarterback from the FCS level. Montana State's Dakota Prukop aims to match the success that Eastern Washington's Vernon Adams Jr. had a year ago. Having hard-running junior Royce Freeman to give the ball to will make that easier.
The Ducks' chances to contend in the Pac-12 and remain among the top programs in the country will come down to making defensive stops. Few of those happened in 2015, prompting coach Mark Helfrich to bring in ex-Michigan coach Brady Hoke as his new defensive coordinator.
20. Iowa
7 of 26
2015 record: 12-2
Final Amway ranking: 10th
Every college football season brings surprises, and none were more hard to fathom in 2015 than Iowa coming out of nowhere to go unbeaten in the regular season and come within inches of winning the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes managed this feat without any fancy bells or whistles, instead employing an approach similar to the ones coach Kirk Ferentz has used since 1999.
And those will be the same tactics he's expected to go with this fall, and while Iowa should again be in the mix for division and conference titles (if not more), the odds of going unbeaten again are slim.
"A magical run is, by definition, almost impossible to replicate," SB Nation's Bill Connelly wrote. "It uses up most of your dark arts quota. It also sets a bar that you probably can't clear."
19. USC
8 of 26
2015 record: 8-6
Final Amway ranking: Not ranked
USC is the defending Pac-12 South champion but also lost six games last season, including its final two. Those came after Clay Helton was promoted from interim coach to the permanent leader, a reward for navigating the Trojans through the chaos that followed Steve Sarkisian's midseason firing.
It's been a fairly boring offseason in Los Angeles, just as Helton and USC would like it. All focus has been on identifying a replacement for three-year starting quarterback Cody Kessler and put together a game plan that will make beating defending national champion Alabama on Sept. 3 possible.
The Trojans have no shortage of talent, as seems to always be the case, with standouts like wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, running back Ronald Jones II and three-way star Adoree' Jackson all poised for big years.
18. Washington
9 of 26
2015 record: 7-6
Final Amway ranking: Not ranked
Washington was two games below .500 in mid-November but won its final three contests by an average of 31 points to roll into the offseason with major momentum. So much so that the Huskies are looking at what could be their highest preseason ranking since 2003.
Head coach Chris Petersen doesn't see why his team is getting such high praise, telling reporters at Pac-12 media days: "We have as much hype as the new Pokemon game that no one knows anything about but thinks it's really cool. That's us."
It might be because Washington was able to succeed late in 2015 with an offense led by true freshmen at quarterback (Jake Browning) and running back (Myles Gaskin) and because it returns seven starters from an underrated defense that led the Pac-12 in yards allowed.
17. Louisville
10 of 26
2015 record: 8-5
Final Amway ranking: Not ranked
What's been basically a two-team race the last few seasons now has a third contender for the ACC Atlantic Division crown thanks to Louisville's surge to end 2015. The Cardinals rebounded from an 0-3 start behind a strong defense and a quarterback who got better with every snap.
Lamar Jackson's true freshman season was full of ups and downs, the highs becoming more prevalent as the year went on. He ended up as Louisville's leading rusher with 960 yards and 11 touchdowns, aided by 226 yards and two two scores in the Music City Bowl to go with 227 passing yards and two TDs.
Bobby Petrino's second go-around with the Cardinals is trending upward and nearly the level of success he had in his first tenure, when he won 41 games from 2003-06.
16. TCU
11 of 26
2015 record: 11-2
Final Amway ranking: 7th
TCU performed a minor miracle last season by winning 11 games despite having at least that many impact players suffer serious injuries. By year's end, it was on its third quarterback, had lost its career receiving leader and was using duct tape to hold the defense together. But the team still managed to finish strong thanks to a stunning comeback in the Alamo Bowl.
The Horned Frogs figure to be somewhat less dramatic in 2016 but no less dangerous. Gary Patterson has solidified his team as one of the best in the Big 12, and despite having to replace most of the offense, the prognosis in Fort Worth is positive.
Either Foster Sawyer or Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill will be piloting the scheme that has averaged 44.3 points per game the past two seasons, including 43.3 per game in Big 12 play.
15. Georgia
12 of 26
2015 record: 10-3
Final Amway ranking: 24th
Kirby Smart had plenty of other offers to run a program during his stint in charge of Alabama's defense, but it wasn't until Georgia came along this past winter that he decided to go off on his own. In doing so, he's diving into a situation that is unlike most places where a coach has been fired, but that just might make the challenge even harder.
Georgia let Richt go after 15 years despite averaging 9.7 wins per season in favor of a first-time coach, though, one whose defenses with the Crimson Tide were regularly among the best in the country. Yet it's going to be how Smart's offense at Georgia fares that will dictate how his first season on the job is graded.
A true freshman (Jacob Eason) could be starting at quarterback, and because of an injury ravaged backfield, he may have to be the focal point of the attack. Running back Nick Chubb is coming back from torn knee ligaments, and Sony Michel broke his forearm this summer.
14. Michigan State
13 of 26
2015 record: 12-2
Final Amway ranking: 6th
Michigan State won 36 games the past three seasons, winning two Big Ten titles in the process and making the playoffs last winter. That most recent Spartans team was a veteran group, which means head coach Mark Dantonio will be working with a far less experienced lineup in 2016.
The last time he was in this position, in 2012, MSU went 7-6 overall and 3-5 in the Big Ten, but that was before he'd fully established the Spartans as a top-tier program. There should be some drop-off from a season ago but not nearly as much.
"Sparty dances like nobody’s watching, an inner rage and disrespect woven into the DNA, two-star prospects grinding and pounding their way to five-star destinations," Sean Keeler of LandOf10.com wrote.
While Michigan and Jim Harbaugh have gotten the headlines of late, it's still MSU that rules the state.
13. Ole Miss
14 of 26
2015 record: 10-3
Final Amway ranking: 9th
Quarterback Chad Kelly is the most experienced quarterback in the SEC and considers himself the best passer in the country. Call it cockiness or just deep confidence, but whatever the case, it's the kind of aura that Ole Miss has about it following its first 10-win season in more than a decade.
The Rebels have managed to knock off Alabama in consecutive years and have improved their win total every season under coach Hugh Freeze. But for the first time they're tasked with having to replace some major pieces, most notably first-round picks who played left tackle, wide receiver and on the defensive line.
That's where Ole Miss' strong recruiting comes into play. It had the No. 6 class in February and was in the top 20 in the previous three cycles.
12. Baylor
15 of 26
2015 record: 10-3
Final Amway ranking: 13th
There may not be a harder to team to project its preseason ranking than Baylor. From a talent standpoint, the Bears are among the best in the country, albeit their depth could be an issue after losing numerous signees and transfers in the wake of the school's sexual-assault scandal and Art Briles' firing.
The program is under intense scrutiny, which continued this week with the Big 12's board of governors spending two hours on Tuesday getting briefed by Baylor on the steps it's taking to address the scandal. How the added spotlight will impact the players when games get going is a major question mark, one that figures to result in the Bears being ranked all over the place on coaches ballots.
Interim coach Jim Grobe intends to stay the course from a schematic purpose, meaning quarterback Seth Russell and running backs Shock Linwood and Johnny Jefferson should put up big offensive numbers.
11. Houston
16 of 26
2015 record: 13-1
Final Amway ranking: 8th
The list of 64 coaches who are voting in this year's Amway poll won't be made public until after the preseason Top 25 comes out, but if it's anything like the 2015 version, it will be fairly balanced between power- and non-power-conference representatives. Those from outside the power leagues do their best to promote teams from their ranks, and this year they should be all-in on Houston.
After all, the Cougars beat a trio of power schools (Louisville, Vanderbilt and Florida State, the last in the Peach Bowl) a year ago and bring back the best non-power player in the country in senior quarterback Greg Ward Jr. And with the schedule the Cougars have on tap this fall, they have a legitimate shot to crash the playoff scene.
Houston opens against Oklahoma and later hosts Louisville, games that—combined with a perfect run through the American Athletic Conference—would make for an intriguing playoff resume. At the very least, it would ensure the Cougars a second consecutive invite to a New Year's Six bowl game.
10. Stanford
17 of 26
2015 record: 12-2
Final Amway ranking: 3rd
The Pac-12 was the power conference that got shut out of the playoff party in 2015, and based on where its highest-ranked team is projected to start 2016, that could be the case again. Stanford is looking like the league's best hope, as it was a year ago when it claimed a third conference title in four seasons but couldn't overcome two regular-season losses.
The Cardinal have more than that to conquer this time around, since a great number of key contributors from last year's squad have moved on. After being blessed with three-year starting quarterbacks in Andrew Luck and Kevin Hogan, it's going to be a first-time starter in charge, either Ryan Burns or Keller Chryst, though either will have the luxury of working with the FBS single-season all-purpose-yardage record holder.
Christian McCaffrey is college football's most versatile weapon, a 2,000-yard rusher who was also Stanford's top receiver and best return man in 2015. The Cardinal would ideally not have him challenge his own record this season, since that would mean others hadn't emerged to help balance out the offense.
9. Tennessee
18 of 26
2015 record: 9-4
Final Amway ranking: 23rd
Coaches are just as susceptible to hype as fans and the media, so it won't be the least bit surprising to see Tennessee start in the Top 10 in the Amway poll for the first time since 2005. After all, the Volunteers have one of the most experienced lineups in the country, one that coach Butch Jones has been slowly building up during his time in Knoxville.
Ranked as the third-most experienced team in the country, per Phil Steele, the Vols bring back 91 percent of their offensive production and nearly 80 percent of their tackles from last year's team. They struggled to finish early in the season but got on a tear in the second half, taking a six-game win streak into the winter.
Tennessee's fate will again be sealed in the first half—as its first seven opponents all went bowling in 2015, and its first four SEC opponents (Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M and Alabama) won a combined 42 games.
8. Notre Dame
19 of 26
2015 record: 10-3
Final Amway ranking: 12th
Arguably the most nationally recognized program in college football, Notre Dame also tends to get the benefit of the doubt from coaches poll voters each year. This will be the sixth straight season the Fighting Irish are ranked at the outset, though the previous five spots were all 11th or lower.
A higher ranking this time around can be attributed to the sustained success that Brian Kelly has had as coach, bucking the trend of his predecessors who tended to win early but struggle to maintain that level. Kelly's teams have won at least eight games in all six seasons, the longest stretch since Lou Holtz did it seven years in a row from 1987-93.
Notre Dame will earn this ranking despite a high-profile quarterback battle between junior Malik Zaire and redshirt sophomore DeShone Kizer. Each has fared well in the starting job, but it's unlikely the Irish will want to split snaps and risk having what happened to Ohio State in 2015.
7. Ohio State
20 of 26
2015 record: 12-1
Final Amway ranking: 4th
It's common practice to use returning starters as part of the criteria to rank teams in the preseason poll, and the more a team has coming back, the higher it tends to be ranked. There's an exception to every rule, and Ohio State will be that in 2016.
The Buckeyes had twice as many players drafted (12) as it has returning starters (six), yet because junior quarterback J.T. Barrett is among those returnees, there's not as much concern as you'd expect. The same goes for OSU's defense, which lost most of its impact players, but thanks to great recruiting under head coach Urban Meyer, it's loaded with promising (but inexperienced) prospects.
OSU was similarly youthful and untested in 2014, when it was set to start an accomplished veteran at quarterback. Then Braxton Miller was hurt in the preseason, forcing Barrett into action as a redshirt freshman, and we all know how that ended up.
6. Michigan
21 of 26
2015 record: 10-3
Final Amway ranking: 11th
No one knew what to expect from Harbaugh's first Michigan team in 2015, including the Amway voters, only one of whom handed out even a 25th-place vote in last year's preseason poll. This time around, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Wolverines snare a first-place spot on someone's initial ballot after what Harbaugh was able to accomplish and what he has to work with this fall.
Unlike its coach, who has become larger than life through his use of social media and near-constant public appearances, Michigan's team isn't particularly flashy. It also has some major question marks on offense, particularly who will be the quarterback and who will carry the load in the backfield.
There's less concern about the Wolverines defense, which was fourth in the country last year and could be even better this time around thanks to the hiring of Don Brown (who led the top-rated Boston College defense in 2015) as defensive coordinator.
5. LSU
22 of 26
2015 record: 9-4
Final Amway ranking: 17th
It's not just the media that loves Les Miles, he's a favorite of coaches poll voters as well. The Tigers have been ranked no worse than 13th in each of the past five preseason polls, including last year (despite coming off an 8-5 season). With that in mind, it shouldn't be a surprise to see Miles' latest squad opening in the top five.
Miles might have his most experienced team yet, if only because LSU didn't undergo its normal pillaging by the NFL draft through early entry. After learning that defensive standouts Kendell Beckwith and Tre'Davious White were coming back for their final seasons, Miles called it a “windfall” that he hadn't experienced before at LSU, per ESPN.com's David Ching.
"Anytime that you have a senior-dominated team, you recognize that you are going to play with leaders, and guys always play their best year of football when they are most mature," Miles said, per Ching.
How far LSU goes, though, both nationally and in the SEC, will depend on what its offense does. There's no doubt about running back Leonard Fournette's abilities, but without contributions from the quarterback position, the Tigers could be destined for a late-season swoon similar to in 2015 when they went from first in the playoff rankings to unranked in a three-week span.
4. Florida State
23 of 26
2015 record: 10-3
Final Amway ranking: 14th
A preseason Top 10 team in four of the previous five seasons, the only year in that span Florida State didn't earn such a ranking was in 2013, when Jameis Winston led the Seminoles to the national title while winning the Heisman Trophy along the way. Both a title and Heisman (for running back Dalvin Cook) are possible again this year, but the 'Noles won't be sneaking up on anyone.
Last season was considered a "down" year for FSU—despite winning 10 games and reaching a major bowl game—because it didn't play for the ACC title. To get back to that championship game will require navigating through the tougher half of the league that includes Clemson and Louisville, but head coach Jimbo Fisher should have his team well-prepared for that task.
Cook figures to become FSU's career rushing leader this season after setting the school's single-season mark in 2015 despite dealing with injuries. He's coming off shoulder surgery in April, while quarterback Sean Maguire missed the spring following ankle surgery. But each is expected at full strength for the high-profile Sept. 4 opener against Ole Miss in Orlando, Florida.
3. Oklahoma
24 of 26
2015 record: 11-2
Final Amway ranking: 5th
Somewhat of an unknown quantity a year ago because of its revamped offense and transfer quarterback, Oklahoma tore through the Big 12 to earn that league's first playoff bid before losing to Clemson in the Orange Bowl. The Sooners are no longer shrouded in uncertainty, not with Baker Mayfield back at the helm of one of the most balanced offenses in the country.
Though labeled an "Air Raid" attack, the Sooners were one of three schools (along with Clemson and TCU) to average 300 passing yards and 200 rushing yards per game in 2015. Expect more of the same this fall with both Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon carrying the ball and Mayfield having a large assortment of receivers to throw to.
Oklahoma also had the top defense in the Big 12 last year, a goal it will strive for again despite having to replace half its starters. Being able to make the occasional stop in a league where 60 percent of the teams averaged 30 points per game a season ago will prove invaluable.
2. Clemson
25 of 26
2015 record: 14-1
Final Amway ranking: 2nd
Clemson made the national championship game in 2015, coming up short in its quest to be the first-ever 15-0 team in FBS history when it fell to Alabama. Now the Tigers are set to embark on the journey of trying to make the title game a year after losing it.
A power-packed offense will no doubt be the driving force for any return trips, as Clemson brings back every major weapon from a year ago. That begins with electric quarterback Deshaun Watson, the first-ever player at the FBS level to throw for 4,000 yards and rush for another 1,000, an he's complemented by underrated rusher Wayne Gallman and an ultradeep receiving corps.
How the Tigers replenish their defense, though, will determine just how far they go in 2016. Most of a stellar front seven is now in the NFL, but there are plenty of capable replacements ready for their shot, while the secondary isn't as deep and could be a weakness after ranking 17th against the pass last year.
1. Alabama
26 of 26
2015 record: 14-1
Final Amway ranking: 1st
College football coaches are where they are because of the ability to keep opponents guessing and avoiding falling into too many predictable patterns. A notable exception might be their preseason No. 1 pick in the Amway poll.
This will be the fourth consecutive year the coaches select the defending national champion as its top team, following Alabama (2013), Florida State (2014) and Ohio State (2015). None of those previous choices were that surprising, and nor is picking the Crimson Tide, not with the amount of talent they have coming back and their proven track record of late.
Concerns over an unsettled quarterback competition and who will anchor the run game are offset by a deep and dominant returning defense as well as the acumen of coach Nick Saban and his staff. Saban believes otherwise, saying, "It's going to be a challenge for us to be able to replace some of the depth that we had in terms of the specialty players that we had last year" at SEC media days, via Bleacher Report's Justin Ferguson.
That might sound like sandbagging to many of the voting coaches, who have firsthand experience of what it's like to recently lose a recruit to the Tide during their run of six consecutive top-ranked recruiting classes.
All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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